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A new mathematical calculation estimates that only 40 percent of the population must have had the corona virus for the population to have developed collective immunity.
Professor Tom Britton of Stockholm University told Svenska Dagbladet this Saturday. He is among the teachers behind the calculation.
Previously, it was estimated that this proportion should be 60%.
“This will mean that the spread of the infection in Stockholm will stop in June,” Britton told the newspaper.
Limited power
Although the new calculation should vote, state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell warns that the danger is not yet over, and that Swedes should still be very vigilant about the virus.
The flock’s immunity won’t matter to a city like Stockholm, and will only lead to the spread of the infection there, which will happen more slowly, he explains to Dagens Nyheter.
– We don’t live in such a simple world. Then you think of a herd that has no contact with another. Tegnell warned that such an effect can be achieved in an island nation, but in Stockholm, which has many people traveling in and out of the city, it will not look that way.
In the past 24 days, 45 new covid-19 deaths were recorded in Sweden, according to Expressen. In total, 3,220 people have died from the disease in the country.
However, if it turns out that Stockholm achieves herd immunity and the number of new cases of infection is dramatically reduced, however, a possible herd immunity will affect the advice of health authorities for the summer, Tegnell told Dagens Nyheter.
– It is not a strategy
On Thursday, the first study on antibody development in the Norwegian population was published.
Blood tests of 400 people show that 2 out of 100 have antibodies against the coronavirus. This indicates that a small part of the Norwegian population has been infected, according to the researchers.
Department director Line Vold at FHI explains to Dagbladet that the result was not surprisingly compared to what one would expect based on the mathematical model.
– The result contributes to general knowledge about the spread of the virus, reminding us that a large part of the population is vulnerable to infection. The actual incidence data will and will be used to improve the mathematical model that we use to predict the evolution of the epidemic in the future, says Vold a Dagbladet
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The result will also have no meaning for specific measurements, as the immunity of the batch is not an objective. He’s not in Sweden, either, explains Vold.
– Neither Norway nor Sweden have collective immunity as a strategy or objective for infection prevention work. The important thing is to keep the spread of infection low so that the burden of disease remains low and the health service is not overburdened, and the effects and costs of infection control measures are low. The response must be dynamic; The measures must be adjusted according to the development of the epidemic.
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