A quarter of winning favorites on Thursday may dampen the chaos of the NBA bubble to a degree, but the first two games of each first-round series have included a deep list of surprises. Both no. 1 seed fell in Game 1, the Clippers fell Game 2 and the Thunder honestly did not look competitive. The next week of games should continue to deliver unexpected results.
So what have been the biggest surprises through the first four days of the postseason? Let’s dive into the list below.
The Bubble effect
There is effectively no home court advantage for the higher seeds in the 2020 playoffs, but it has still been very overwhelming to play the underdogs with such confidence. Maybe we should expect that for Damian Lillard and the Blazers, although the Magic, Mavericks and even the Nets came up with a lot of confidence and fireworks in the first two games. Favorites do not go out so easily on extended runes without a home crowd. Young people do not wrestle in bad circumstances. We still have to expect the Lakers, Clippers and Bucks to move past round one, especially after LeBron and Co.’s resounding win on Thursday night. But we can basically throw seeding out the window at this point. The strange environment could lead to a string of upsets along the way.
Houston’s defensive dominance
James Harden’s defensive struggles have been discussed to the point of parody, and honestly, the narrative does not quite match the metrics at this point in his career. Not only did Harden and the Rockets keep their own defense in round one against Oklahoma City. They dominate immediately.
Houston has lined up in the first two games of the series with the lineup of three guards from OKC. Chris Paul, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder combined for 35 points on 34 shots in a Game 1 loss on Tuesday. Paul was absolutely bottled on Thursday, and in 37 minutes recorded a game-least minus-36. The Thunder struggled to make any separation against Houston’s collection of wings. Pick-and-rolls do not create a noticeable mismatch, and open shots of three are a few and far between. Paul’s revenge tournament could be short lived.
The Rockets’ offensive fireworks are no secret. Their defensive performances have been a real surprise. This is a legitimate competitor of Finals, especially considering the early battle for both Los Angeles teams.
Show off Donovan Mitchell’s superstar
There is little doubt about Donovan Mitchell’s position as one of the game’s top young players, although it has been fair to doubt his ceiling after two straight playoff outings against Harden and the Rockets. But Mitchell has responded to any skepticism with a fury through the first two games of the 2020 playoffs.
Mitchell fell 57 points on Monday in a Game 1 loss, and punishes the edge with dunks that actually deserve comparison to Dwyane Wade. His Game 2 performance could have actually been more impressive. Mitchell controlled the action completely with 30 points and eight assists, making 10 of 14 shots and six of seven tries. Mitchell can sometimes be too ball-dominant for his own good. He’s not James Harden, though not very much. Utah needs Mitchell to embrace his ability for players to take down Denver in round one.
Shooting Jimmy Butler
The Heat have always felt a tiger outside of the title talk in 2019-20, and not just because of their extreme youth. Jimmy Butler is a shadow outside the true top crop of players in the NBA, oscillating between an overqualified second banana and a medium-sized top option. Butler’s jumper is the most notable reason for this designation. He shot 24.4% of three just this year, and he has never hit 100 yards in a season. Teams feel comfortable going under screens against Butler. He is a nice coupling scorer, though not a flawless one.
There have been no questions about Butler’s jumper in the 2020 playoffs. He scored an efficient 28 points on 8-15 shots in Game 1, and he hit both of his attempted tries (including a dagger late). Duncan Robinson stole the show in Game 2, but Butler shed a few tears again on three attempts. The percentages are not exactly important. The respect factor is. Butler should force teams to the perimeter, especially in the fourth quarter. So far, so good for Miami’s last leading man.
Clippers’ defensive misery
The Mavericks sport the most efficient offensive of normal season in NBA history, but we still assumed they ran a relative brick wall against the Clippers in round one. Los Angeles is led by two All-Defense wings, one of which is perhaps the best defensive player of his generation. And there is depth behind the two stars. Patrick Beverley is a standout defense guard. Montrezl Harrell is a quality paint protector. But the playoffs did not bring the best in Los Angeles. The Mavericks really got everything they wanted through two games.
We could see a 2-0 Dallas lead if Kristaps Porzingis was not sent off in Game 1. The Clippers have legitimate problems with the size of the Mavericks (shoutout Boban Marjanovic) and Luka Doncic apparently cut his way into the lane wants a lot of the first two games of the series. There’s definitely time for the Clippers to turn things around. They have the forefront to be the best defense in basketball. But their energy and effort need to show a significant uptick to really compete for the Larry O’Brien Trophy.
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