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There are three different views of Navalna among the Russian leaders.
The first and most influential is security forces – the hard-line approach of those responsible for the security apparatus. They have long viewed Navalna as a threat to the regime of President Vladimir Putin, but now the opposition has become an enemy that needs to be demonstratively destroyed. At least politically.
After the publication of the investigation, which revealed the role of the Federal Security Service (FSB) in the attempt to kill A. Navalna, the fight became personal, a revenge, a question of principle, writes T. Stanovaja .
VIDEO: Alexei Navaln called his poison
Silovikams Navaln personifies the threat posed by Russia’s opponents in the West. Therefore, they assure that the opposition is an instrument of the foreign security services to end the Putin regime. According to them, the only way to deal with threats is cold-blooded military-style operations.
According to the author, members of the presidential administration responsible for domestic politics take a different approach. The most attractive scenario for them would be A. Navaln’s decision to remain in Germany.
They don’t want any action that sparks protests, sparks angry conflicts between the Russian government and the most progressive segments of society, or further exacerbates the burden of pandemics and preparations for parliamentary elections.
VIDEO: A. Navalnas last words before going to the interrogation isolator – urging not to be afraid and to go outside
According to Stanova, in recent years, in search of ways to confront non-systemic opposition, this group has remained on the sidelines, with the security services assuming a key role. They believe that all anti-Putin activities in society should be considered criminal.
The regime is hardening and it is becoming increasingly clear that the FSB, and not the Kremlin advisers, is responsible for the political risks that are tolerated.
The third approach is the most interesting, but the people who follow it are the least influential. These are representatives of various businesses, government corporations, industry giants, and banks that hope to avoid the worst case scenario for their parish agendas.
Although most of these organizations are represented by people close to Putin, they generally want to avoid further confrontations with the West. And the Kremlin’s brutal crackdown on the Navy ensures that the United States and its allies will impose sanctions on Russia and seek other forms of pressure.
Some people in this circle are rightly concerned that the Kremlin’s treatment of Navaln may have more dangerous consequences for regime stability than Navaln itself, Stanovaya writes.
The Kremlin’s treatment of Navaln is the product of a political regime that loses the opportunity to rationally consider the pros and cons or to make decisions based on consensus. Decisions about the actual opposition are now made by the FSB.
VIDEO: “15/15”: What awaits A. Navaln in Russia?
Silovikams It is important to maintain political stability by all possible means and to suppress any expression of public discontent.
According to N. Stanova, the imprisonment of A. Navalnas threatens to impose a heavy burden on the regime. Either it will become even more repressive or it will panic and face unpredictable political consequences.
Last August, on a plane flying from Tomsk to Moscow, A. Navaln felt bad. When the plane crashed in Omsk, the opposition was admitted to a city hospital and flew to Berlin a few days later for treatment.
The German investigators confirmed that A. Navaln had been poisoned with the nerve paralyzing substance “Novičiok”, the opposition itself contacted an FSB official, who, deceived, revealed the details of the operation.
After five months of treatment in Berlin, A. Navaln returned to Russia on Sunday, where he was immediately arrested, and the following day he was sentenced to 30 days in prison for violating the conditions of probation. He was given a suspended sentence in a fraud case, A. Navalnas says the accusations are politically motivated.
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