What will be the next step for the Kremlin? Will Putin sacrifice Lukashenko?

“First of all, it is important that the EU and the West take this very seriously, at least the declarations, the decisions that could be taken quickly, were made. This week, the EP Foreign Affairs Committee had its own meeting, which also included the issue of Belarus, “said A. Kubilius at the beginning of the program.

“The actions that the European Union has taken now to urge not to fly over Belarus, to refuse to accept Belavi planes, to decide on sanctions are important, they cannot be criticized, but the question is whether they are enough. I myself spoke very Simple, I said that we have to answer the question why Lukashenko dared to give the order to land the plane in Minsk and arrest Pratasavičius. So far, he has not received any reward for the actions he has taken since August of the year. past or even before. There were no punishments from the West, so his thinking is this: and this time the West will scold a bit, dozens of officials will impose some sanctions, and that will end. The question is what should be done next. they identified various initiatives at this week’s meeting, “A. Kubilius said on the show.

According to him, the threat is already far away not only from the people living in Belarus, but also from the whole of Europe.

“The global civil aviation industry is in danger. On the other hand, if we do not arrest Lukashenko now, the question arises as to what other act of terrorism can occur to him, and that he may be completely on the verge of insanity, which it could represent a real danger not only for Belarus, but for Europe as a whole. It is worth thinking about this now and choosing measures that prevent Lukashenko from taking any action in the future, “said the interlocutor.

According to A. Kubilius, the West must act, although today it may doubt whether it is possible to bring Lukashenko to court.

“I think it is realistic to start a serious legal investigation. The Lithuanian Prosecutor’s Office is doing the same. You can then go to international legal institutions with that research material. As far as I know, the EU, the international organization of civil society, promises to do the same, because this violation, or the hijacking of a plane, is a very dangerous precedent. If this is not answered, there is no guarantee that the authorities of those countries will not take similar measures when flying over Iran, North Korea and Venezuela, so the legal valuation as a terrorist act is very important.

Another thing is whether it is easy to bring the self-proclaimed leader of such a country to court; There is experience in this area in international law institutions. It has been the case that after some time, the dictators themselves, the authoritarians whose crimes can be tried by the courts, came to them because the court there is safer than any street court. In this case, I believe that the West must take action, although today it may doubt whether it will succeed in bringing Lukashenko to that court or not, but we have to start the process. This is an important factor that can make a difference both in Belarus itself and in countries like Russia, where the Lukashenko regime is supported. “

Will Putin sacrifice Lukashenko?

When asked if something could happen that would make Putin agree to sacrifice Lukashenko, Kubilius assured that the more Putin supported Lukashenko, the more he would lose his sympathy for the Belarusians.

“It is really difficult to guess how Putin could proceed, especially in the run-up to the Duma elections. He imagines that he can maintain his authority, popularity in the eyes of Russian voters, if he shows a strong attitude, he will continue to support Lukashenko, on the other hand, I do not rule out the possibility that there is still common sense in and around. Putin’s team, perhaps beginning to realize that Lukashenko is losing the support of the majority of the Belarusian people towards Putin himself, because it is clear that Sympathy for Lukashenko in Belarus is not growing, and resistance to him and the desire for change are only growing. Putin merges with you to be toxic to Lukashenko and he himself becomes increasingly toxic in the eyes of the Belarusian people. In this case, we are seeing a trend for Belarusian public opinion to be increasingly favorable to the West.

It is moving away from Putin-ruled Russia and toward the West. On the other hand, Putin is not too attached to Lukashenko to feel an increasingly harsh Western reaction. I see in Putin’s various efforts and actions, including the demonstration of aggressive behavior, I see the desire to sit at a common table with President Biden himself, to negotiate something. Perhaps because of how to get out of the situation in which Putin himself has built Russia with his aggression against Ukraine, I support Lukashenko. It has isolated Russia from the West and it is painful for Russia itself.

The opinion of the people, at least of the young people, about Putin in Russia is becoming very similar to the opinion of the people in Belarus about Lukashenko. Putin understands that in such a situation, he and his regime are in danger. I can only guess, but in my opinion, if there is at least some rationality in the Kremlin, then there should be an understanding that the more Putin supports Lukashenko, the more he will lose the sympathy of Belarusians. “