What really awaits the Social Democrats with a new leader: predicting the most realistic scenario

Political scientists have pointed out that such an election by the Social Democrats demonstrates the fact that parties within the LSDP are fighting for stability and want to reduce tensions between party members. At the same time, according to political scientists, the interim party chairman is a leader whose leadership increases the party at least in the theoretical 2017. The return to the Social Democratic Party of politicians who broke away from the LSDP in the fall and formed the Social Democratic Labor Party of Lithuania (LSDDP).

According to Justinas Argustas, representative of the LSDP communication department, the party council elected two possible temporary party leaders: M. Sinkevičius and Vilija Blinkevičiūtė.

M. Sinkevičius will lead the match until May 29. a congress will be held to approve the newly elected president of the LSDP. The elections will be held in two rounds: the first round of the Social Democratic presidential elections will take place from April 22 to 25, and the party leader is elected for a 2-year term.

The provisional guide is a non-random choice

“The fact that M. Sinkevičius was elected president indicates that there is a desire within the party to stabilize the situation and not to oppose the existing groups in such a way as to produce a division.

M. Sinkevičius symbolizes a certain connection between the new young generation and the Lithuanian politicians who created the Social Democracy. It is a kind of mediator. The future will depend on the general line chosen by the party’s assets, ”said Lauras Bielinis, a political scientist and professor at Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), which became the appointment of M. Sinkevičius as acting president of the LSDP.

Vytautas Dumbliauskas, associate professor and political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), recalled that M. Sinkevičius was once a competitor of G. Paluckas in the election of the party president. Considering that in the elections the difference between them was small, according to V. Dumbliauskas, it seems that M. Sinkevičius has quite strong positions in the party.

G. Paluck has been the director of the LSDP since 2017. May, when he faced M. Sinkevičius, elected interim president, in the election of the party president. At that time, G. Paluckas received 5,190 party votes, and his rival M. Sinkevičius received 4,781 votes. 10,024 or 49.17 percent participated in the elections. LSDP members G. Paluckas and M. Sinkevičius divided by only 409 votes. 2019 In the spring of 2006, Mr. Paluck was re-elected president of the LSDP for a second term.

Before the resignation of G. Paluckas, there were rumors that Juozas Olekas would also participate in the spring elections for the presidency of the LSDP. These speeches and plans to participate in the elections of the leader of the Social Democrats were also confirmed by MEP J. Olekas himself.

However, as the political scientist V. Dumbliauskas pointed out, J. Olekas is a politician of the older generation, and the current political environment in Lithuania requires the arrival of a new generation.

“GRAMO. Paluck tried, failed. M. Sinkevičius is a hope for the Social Democrats. J. Olekas is a politician from the previous generation. As we can see, the ruling parties – the Conservatives, the Liberals, the Freedom Party – they have young presidents who belong to the younger generation of politicians. A new generation of politicians is coming and the LSDP must respond to this, “said the MRU associate professor.

Renovation needed

Professor L. Bielinis emphasized that the established rhetoric of the LDSP, emphasizing equality, does not reach society.

“It just came to our attention then.” We need to see that new approach to whether the Social Democrats will adapt to the new conditions and how they will adapt, “he said.

“If the path of renewal is chosen, that path of renewal will raise the question of ineffective political positions and political attitudes, then we will really have a phase of renewal where the old generation will have to withdraw and give way to the younger ones. It will depend. of the path chosen by the party itself in the discussions in the near future, “continued the VMU political scientist.

According to the political scientist V. Dumbliauskas, both a strong political right and a strong political left are very important for the development of the state. The left, he said, is severely weakened right now, but has every chance of showing off perfectly if it handles internal issues.

Loss of identity, ambitions, the older generation that still wants something, the younger generation that is not yet firmly established: this is how the MRU associate professor described the political situation within the LSDP.

According to L. Bielinis, thinking about the direction in which the LSDP could move with the interim president is somewhat complicated by the fact that we have not noticed the clear statements of M. Sinkevičius about his political positions.

“The Social Democrats lack a different approach to society, to social change, and this must be done,” he said.

On the other hand, the political scientist V. Dumbliauskas called to pay attention to the good reputation of M. Sinkevičius at the municipal level.

“As mayor, he handles himself quite well and is highly valued. He is the president of the Association of Lithuanian Municipalities, if he is elected leader of 60 Lithuanian municipalities, it means that he has a certain position in it, “said the political scientist.

M. Sinkevičius brings the prospect of merging LSDP and LSDDP?

There are rumors from some politicians that M. Sinkevičius is not only a link between the younger and older generations of the LSDP, but at the same time there could be a link between the LSDP and the LSDDP separatists. In 2017, when part of the party that founded the LSDDP split from the LSDP, it was said that M. Sinkevičius would stay with the Social Democrats to unite LSDP and LSDDP in the event of G. Paluck’s failure.

Gediminas Kirkilas, the leader of the LSDDP who was not elected to the Seimas, said in a public space before the election of the acting president of the LSDP that if Olek, who intends to seek this position, becomes the new president of the LSDP, The process of unification of left-wing parties more than two decades ago could be repeated.

“I don’t see the possibility of party mergers, but I see people, people of our views, joining our ranks. Those who value our values,” ELTAI himself said last week.

Abu Delfi.lt Interviewees unanimously agreed that the temporary leadership of M. Sinkevičius in the party increases the theoretical possibilities of merging LSDP and LSDDP.

“The scenario of the merger would seem realistic, because the social workers led by G. Kirkilas also realized that after the separation they are practically nothing. If we had added the votes received by the LSDDP to the LSDP during these elections, we could speak of the party that ranked third in the elections, ”said political scientist V. Dumbliauskas.

During 2020 the parliamentary elections in the plurinominal constituency of the LSDP were collected by 108 thousand. 649 votes. LSDDP – 37 thousand. 197 votes. Summarizing the votes received by both parties, voter support would reach 145,000. 846. Meanwhile, the Labor Party, which obtained third place in the multinominal constituency, was supported during the elections by 110 thousand. 773 participants in the elections.

“There were many personalities between G. Kirkilas and Juozas Bernatonis on the one hand and G. Paluckas on the other. These are certain wars of ambition, but both Mr Kirkilas and Mr Bernatonis must recognize that they belong to a generation of outgoing politicians. Fragmentation, as the short political history of a restored Lithuania shows, does not promise anything good: ruptures often disappear ”, emphasized V. Dumbliauskas.

Professor L. Bielinis assured that the fusion of LSDP and LSDDP is probable. However, he predicted that a scenario should be expected where there is not a merger between the two political formations, but the return of certain representatives of the LSDDP to the LSDP.

“Theoretically, this (merger – aut. Past) would be very good. How it will happen in practice is very difficult to say, because it depends not only on theoretical interest, but also on the mood within both parties. Some social democrats treat many social workers as a naming group that froze the development of the Social Democrats, halting their possible development.

Therefore, theoretically a merger is expected, but in practice there can be a wide variety of cases. The LSDP may wait for individual politicians to return to the party. All will submit a separate application, which will be considered individually, “detailed L. Bielinis.