Warns about Kremlin intentions: announces withdrawal of forces, but signs point otherwise

04/23/2021 Lithuania



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The picture may have looked impressive: the Russian BTR-82A armored armor, as in a stage performance, began to roll back to where it had left off the day before and fell back towards the Ropucha-class paratroopers, 6 of whom had concentrated on the busy ones. Crimea in recent weeks.

A Ropucha-class landing craft has the capacity for several dozen such armored vehicles, and together with a group of Russian warships concentrated in the Black Sea, the exercise demonstrated the possibility of landing the entire brigade in an instant. .

The exercise took place at the Opuk training ground in Crimea, but the area is similar to the coasts north and south of Odessa. Similar landing operations, such as general direct Russian military aggression against Ukraine, have been feared for some time. Several years ago various scenarios have been drawn or recalled, an almost imminent war was expected: after all, Russia has been concentrating its forces both in the occupied Crimea and on the eastern borders of Ukraine for some time.

But as dramatically as the mobilization began, its end was also announced: with a bang, S. Shigig arrived to see 10,000. military exercises in Crimea. After all the images from various angles, where hundreds of paratroopers concentrated in military airfields demonstrated the message of “unannounced inspection targets” and the withdrawal of forces were accompanied by images of military equipment loaded on railway platforms, paratroopers or airplanes.

However, the experts were not very impressed by such a public withdrawal of the Russian forces and recalled the smoke screen: only a small part of the withdrawn capabilities were shown in front of the cameras, and the demonstration itself was carried out with the idea of ​​A Quick Return.

Retirement? What is a distraction?

The announcement of the alleged withdrawal of Russian forces has caused a projected wave of joy and satisfaction in Ukraine.

“Hurry! The Kremlin has scared off the Ukrainian army and is dragging forces into the depths of Russia.”

Those who for many years had called the mobilization of Russian forces on the borders of Ukraine an inevitable preparation for the invasion now had another chance to rejoice at the withdrawal of Russian forces and to cheer each other on in the “defeat” of the supposedly “scared” Kremlin. .

Warns about Kremlin intentions: announces withdrawal of forces, but signs point otherwise

© Twitter Photo

However, not everyone was in a hurry to rejoice. Former Estonian President Tom Hendrik Ilves, who has been the target of Kremlin loudspeakers in recent days for his harsh speeches, was one of the first to be skeptical of the withdrawal of Russian forces. He recalled that Mr. Shoigu had already made those speeches.

“Apart from Shigigu’s widely publicized statements about the troop withdrawal, is there any independent confirmation? Russia has repeatedly announced its withdrawal from Syria, but nothing,” TH Ilves said on his Twitter account, who deliberately wrote the last word. in Russian: ничего.

In fact, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria has been announced by the Kremlin more than once, in spectacular fashion, with parades, accompanied by incoming propagandists from television channels. However, hundreds of Russian troops and technical units have been deployed to Syria to date.

Another symbolic act of “withdrawal” was the withdrawal of the 7th Parachute Division, which was deployed in Crimea.

Until now, high-level paratroopers have been called “Kaunas” because during the Soviet era it was one of the elite divisions of Soviet paratroopers stationed in Kaunas. Famous for suppressing the Hungarian and Czech resistance in 1956 and 1968, the division is now stationed in Novorossiysk, just 100 km from the exercise site in Crimea.

The demonstration of Russian paratroopers took place in Tagonrog, just 40 km from the border with Ukraine, from where the 98th Parachute Brigade was to return to Ivanovo, 250 km northeast of Moscow, and the 56th Parachute Brigade remained in Feodosia, where even during the occupation in 2014, a battalion of Ukrainian marines was deployed, although a few years ago the barracks for Russian paratroopers were renovated in Kamyshin, between Saratov and Volgograd.

In addition, S. Shoigu himself admitted that part of the 41st Army units will remain in the Pogonov field camp near Voronezh, from which heavy equipment will not be distracted: hundreds of tanks, artillery and fire systems will be concentrated here. sage.

The logic of such a solution is not difficult to explain: it takes time to mobilize the equipment, the supplies you need, from ammunition and fuel to spare parts, while at that time light units (paratroopers and other infantry) can move to the desired location very quickly.

Breathe before a possible storm

“I believe that the objectives of the unannounced inspection have been successfully met. The soldiers proved capable of providing the necessary protection to the country. As a result, the decision was made to complete the inspection of the forces of the southern military districts and from the west, “said the Russian defense minister in Crimea.

Such words of S. Shouig reflect the principles of operation of the Russian army in recent years: unexpected readiness test exercises, when large forces are mobilized in a short period of time, spread throughout the country have already become the rule. The goal is always abstract and can mean anything.

It is no coincidence that such a concentration of forces attracts the attention not only of Ukrainians making desperate statements, but also of their supporters. During all this time, while Russia has concentrated its forces in the occupied territories of Ukraine and near the border with Ukraine, the situation has been closely monitored by the intelligence capabilities of NATO countries, mainly the United States and the United States. UK.

The constant flights of reconnaissance aircraft over the territory of Ukraine and the Black Sea and satellite photos left no doubt: every step of Russia is monitored.

Thus, the demonstrative but partial withdrawal of forces in at least part of the West can persuade that some European countries, as well as the EU, expressed “deep concern” about the actions of Russia and “calls for de-escalation”: Moscow has descended , diplomatic pressure has helped. And the fact that Russia will withdraw only part of the 150 thousand mobilized in recent weeks. The troops will allow it to have more highly prepared capabilities at the border than it had at the beginning of the year.

In other words, the situation is intensifying, thus reducing it on favorable terms for Moscow. And while observers now speculate on the conditions: a meeting with the president of the USA, when Joe Biden himself took the initiative, or with the president of Ukraine, pressing Donbass and proving once again that the Kremlin dictates conditions here, Russia. it can continue to use military force as a political tool.

Warns about Kremlin intentions: announces withdrawal of forces, but signs point to the contrary

© Twitter Photo

“S. Shouig’s statement is a positive development of the situation, but I would not welcome it as a resolved matter. We will still have to ensure a real withdrawal in the coming weeks, all the more so as there are indications that some units in the District Eastern military are moving into the region.

The final deployment of the force after April remains unclear, “said Michael Kofman, a researcher at the Center for Naval Research (CNA), recalling Shawig’s promise to withdraw troops to permanent deployments before May 1. According to the expert , there will be more clarity in the coming weeks, but the news that part of the forces will remain until Exercise Zapad 2021, scheduled for September, suggests that the slightest provocation could ignite a spark of conflict for the West at the most unexpected moment.

If all this mobilization were just a test readiness exercise, before the official Zapad 2021 exercise, what would the latter mean?

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