War in Nagorno-Karabakh. Azerbaijan and Armenia are at war, Turkey and Russia behind their back

Third day of military conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh

The course of hostilities

Both sides are stuck on the front line, minor tactical strikes and counterattacks are taking place, but stationary fire is becoming the main terrain for ground forces, artillery and rescue artillery systems continue to be the focus. Mainly, the Azerbaijani forces continue to use each other’s percussion pilots extensively. .

A bus was attacked by drones, according to the Armenians, on the territory of Armenia. Some sources say that he brought volunteers from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh; in fact, tourists are unlikely to go to the war zone. However, this fact went almost unnoticed by the foreign media. The largest event was the Armenian report that a Turkish F-16 fighter had flown into Armenian territory and shot down an Armenian Su-25 attack aircraft, killing the pilot. It is worth discussing the subject in detail.

Su-25 Armenian Air Force attack plane shot down

According to the Armenian Defense Ministry, the Turkish F-16 fighter around 10:30. took off from the Ganja military airfield in Azerbaijan, flew at an altitude of 8.2 km at a depth of 60 km on the territory of Armenia and shot down the aforementioned Armenian aircraft. The Su-25 was used as a fighter because its speed and weaponry are suitable for attacking Azerbaijani percussion pilots. By the way, that use of training and attack aircraft, which are slower than combat aircraft, has long been debated and tested in the armies of various countries. However, attack aircraft themselves are practically unarmed targets for fighters; this is exactly what happened with the Armenian Su-25.

NationalTurk Photo / Armenian Su-25 Falls Pierced

With a small number of fighters, Armenia could not guarantee its constant air patrol. Therefore, after receiving a message from the air surveillance and control system about an approaching enemy fighter plane, the Su-25 had to turn around and press into Armenian territory at full speed. However, a much faster fighter caught up with him and knocked him down. The biggest intrigue is, why did Turkey send its fighter in full disguise, allow it to invade the airspace of Armenia, which is not officially involved in the conflict, and shoot down its plane here? There are two noteworthy versions:

• Turkey has decided to categorically show Armenia that it supports Azerbaijan and that it will take any action, including the use of its armed forces. In this case, however, the Turks must not deny that this is their plane, but come up with some reason, much less completely unconvincing, such as that their fighter was forced to defend against the Su-25. The Turkish F-16 is also suspected of being one. Turkish fighters always operate in pairs, and such a flight of an airplane seems strange and unconvincing;
• The Polish war blog Militarium and several other sources revealed that it was an Azerbaijani MiG-29 fighter. While this is not confirmed by any solid sources, this version seems very convincing: a fighter took off, made a deceptive arc and came out of a position from which he managed to reach, reach and shoot down the unexpected unmanned Armenian Su-25. This is just one version, but very compelling.

In an attempt to avoid a similar coup in the future, the Armenians should cover their attack aircraft with new Russian Su-30 fighters. However, I suspect that Armenia regards them as the protection of the capital and is very afraid of losing at least one as it would be a great moral and informational loss.

Political aspects

It is clear that Armenia, as in the early days, continues to do even more to demonstrate that Turkey is directly involved in the military conflict and that Azerbaijani and Turkish forces are attacking Armenian targets on Armenian territory. First of all, it is a pressure on the United Nations and the EU to further redouble their efforts and stop the conflict, in which Armenia cannot achieve any victory, but in any case it is only lost.

Second, Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (ОДКБ) established in Russia’s post-Soviet Eastern Space and can request assistance in case of aggression. The independence of Nagorno-Karabakh is not even recognized by Armenia itself, and this separatist territory is not protected by the aforementioned Collective Agreement.

Another important political aspect is that the Kremlin has finally “woken up”; Only today was a telephone conversation between the President of Russia and the Prime Minister of Armenia officially announced, although such talks have been going on since the beginning of the conflict. Russia does not need this conflict at all, and its escalation could have completely unintended consequences, but behind Azerbaijan’s back is Turkish President TRErdogan, who has his own interests and his own expectations. In Lithuania, there is a lot of opinion about the “friendship” between Russia and Turkey, but in reality it is just a card game of two strong and aggressive authoritarian players in the region, where knives are clenched on the back of their hands when interests are cross.

I would assess the current situation as follows: Turkey and Azerbaijan still tend to maintain tensions because they do not risk losing anything; the international community has no real means to stop them, and the longer they are able to sustain these tensions, the more they can achieve their goals.

Interestingly, after hearing the speeches in support of Armenia from Greece yesterday, he fell silent today.

Then tomorrow the shots will resound again, drones, planes and helicopters will fall. And diplomats will plague the visible and invisible fronts in an attempt to stop the military conflict: when guns speak, there is always the possibility that the war will go beyond established limits.

September 30, fourth day of war action in Nagorno-Karabakh

How come I don’t remember EM Remarque here? Nothing new up front.

Shooting, including the use of drones, but no longer with such intensity. Both countries should start to run out of ammunition little by little, especially Armenia. Not so much that there will no longer be anything to shoot, but that you will have to save.

The Armenians say two Turkish F-16 fighters and an Azerbaijan Az-25 strike aircraft attacked targets in Nagorno-Karabakh this morning from a great height (probably fearing short-range air defense systems), with full command of the air force handed over to the Turkish army. The Turkish Air Force itself allegedly commanded from a command post in an E-7T (a radar station, other air traffic control and communications equipment that allow a few hundred kilometers of airspace to monitor and command all connected forces. to the network) that flew near Armenia. walls Also, drones flying over Turkish territory set the fire.

Therefore, the Armenians continue to try to prove the direct participation of the Turkish forces in the fighting, but so far they do not provide evidence. He promised evidence that yesterday his Su-25 was shot down by the F-16 fighter jet of the Turkish forces. Hopefully, although it is not entirely clear why that evidence has yet to be provided, because I really cannot say categorically whether Turkish warplanes are involved in hostilities, so far, there is no evidence. There is no doubt that the territories of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh are being explored from Turkish airspace and the collected data is being transmitted to the Azerbaijani forces.

The UN Security Council and the West are demanding an immediate cessation of hostilities and a negotiating table, and Russia is in second place.

Both the Armenian and Azerbaijani authorities categorically refuse; it is perfectly understandable that neither of us can accept and agree, we must wait for a suitable excuse and the right moment. However, I believe both sides are already preparing briefings to cover up their decision to end the fighting as greetings. As I said, shootings and small attacks will not end in the same minute, there will simply be no more open and intense hostilities.

An interesting detail: only today the website of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan started to function normally (probably due to cyber attacks, it practically did not work), but only the Azerbaijani language, neither the English nor the Russian version. Of the news, only a few new drones were filmed as several Armenian armored vehicles were destroyed by airstrikes.

Can’t Armenian forces resist in Nagorno-Karabakh? I think it will last, although the damage is really painful and exhausting, it will not be easy to restore the losses of air defense and armored equipment after the end of the fight.

And Turkish drones will certainly receive an influx of new buyers, although the losses from the drones themselves appear to be considerable and some of the targets visible in the videos have been destroyed by means other than drones, their reputation has grown significantly.

The article is based on a review of geopolitics and war. Egidijus Papečkis opinion established in the author’s Facebook account. We continue to review the war in Azerbaijan and Armenia. The reviews of the first and second day of the war, published on September 28 and 29, read on the InformNapalm portal.