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In this Seimas, as in the previous one, there is no lack of confusion in the ranks of the ruler or the opposition. However, more than the rulers, the opposition seems to have collapsed.
The crisis of the left wing of the so-called center emerged from 2016. The Seimas elections and they are not over yet.
The main trio of this branch are the peasants, the “workers” and the Social Democrats, who compete mainly for the same voters.
The Seimas opposition did not form a common front, it does not have a common leader and there is not only a verbal break between the three parties.
The peasants who lost the elections have so far been able to run more or less convincingly for the title of main center-left, but the situation has been changing recently.
The Social Democrats, although they have so far been able to refrain from domestic fighting, are on the rise, and their leader V.Blinkevičiūtė is generally among the most popular politicians in the country.
How sustainable and long-term this growth will be is not known, but so far the left can reasonably rejoice in the revival.
At that time, the peasants entered the new political season with a fraction reduced to a third of the Seimas, which was abandoned this week by former Prime Minister S. Skvernelis and his comrades and together with various “hybrids” of the Seimas founded the faction. democrat. “On behalf of Lithuania”.
In this way, S. Skvernelis finally carried out the threats expressed after the presidential elections to leave R. Karbauskis’s carriage if he did not step down from the helm of the party.
Since then, the gap between this tandem, linked by power and just being in power, has become more pronounced.
Who gains the most from these divorces and who loses?
Of course, R. Karbauskis is the one who suffers the most in this situation, although, as after each defeat, he dared tragicomically, that the Seimas faction and party only got stronger and in general we cannot speak of any disintegration.
Furthermore, R. Karbauskis began to complain that S. Skvernelis had always used only the peasant party and its resources, in addition to financial ones. According to the farmer guide, the former prime minister will now join the rulers, of whom he has been a supporter until now.
Such statements suggest that R. Karbauskis is suffering a lot, he also realizes that the division of the faction has hit both his political authority and the entire Union of Peasants and Greens.
After all, together with the former prime minister, one of the most authoritative old members of the party, R. Baškienė, as well as a brilliant figure of the young generation, T. Tomilinas, left the peasant faction. And the party-affiliated European Commissioner V. Sinkevičius is one of the most active supporters of S. Skvernelis’s departure.
Of course, at the moment, it is unlikely that a third of the Peasants and Greens Union will crumble, even if the behind-the-scenes predictions that several more members of the Seimas peasant faction could be leaving soon are confirmed. .
After all, R. Karbauskis continues to control the party, and for many of his supporters, S. Skvernelis’s departure may seem like a betrayal and desertion.
One way or another, the collapse of the faction is yet another blow to the peasants, which will undoubtedly have long-term consequences.
First of all, because the party leadership makes the crisis even more acute and, as it were, more desperate. And what is the political future of S. Skvernel and his followers?
Its political value, of course, will increase in the near future. Especially if the former prime minister succeeds in humiliating R. Karbauskis, peasants and “workers” together with the Social Democrats by agreeing on a greater leadership of the opposition of the Seimas.
In any case, now the new Democratic faction “For Lithuania” is becoming a highly desired product or potential partner for all.
But first of all, to the rulers interested in the division of the opposition and the decline of the peasants, who openly and justifiably rejoice at this.
But the new faction will certainly not be a permanent shadow partner of the ruling coalition, as it would only reduce the freedom and room for maneuver of S. Skvernel, which is the basis of its political capital.
The desire to have a free hand is also one of the main reasons why S. Skvernelis is in no rush to announce the creation of a new party or social movement.
It can be assumed that the former prime minister wants to decide whether to form a party on the road to the Seimas, an electoral commission for the European Parliament, or whether to try to rejoin one of the main political forces only after the elections approach.
However, the former prime minister and his supporters seem to realize that all of these paths have jammed, as competition and turmoil in the political market have increased dramatically, and S. Skvernel’s own star has also expanded considerably. .
So perhaps the main winners of these peasant divorces are the ruling conservatives and liberals?
Hardly. After all, an even more pronounced disintegration of the opposition will not eliminate the long-standing friction or competition between the ruling parties, nor the major crises that will oppress them further: illegal migration, pandemics, waves of radicalism and violent protests in the society.
The latest wave was symbolically witnessed by the protective fences surrounding the Seimas and other institutions and by officials who had been flooding the capital since Friday morning, closely monitoring the regiments of the Family Movement rallies.
The opposition between the rulers and President G. Nausėda, which continues to harm the entire state, will not disappear anywhere. And this week, the head of state indicated in several statements that he was determined to fight.
