Updated forecasts when it is realistic for Lithuania to reach scenario B.



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As government data analyst Aistis Šimaitis summarized the situation, the decrease in the number of cases and the percentage of positive investigations in 2021. January 25-31 accelerated compared to the situation last week.

He pointed out that the number of municipalities with up to 5 cases per day in 7 days continues to increase; now we have 24 cases and in 18 more cases the number does not exceed 10 cases per day. At the elderly level, “green areas” are also emerging in Lithuania, where no new cases have been registered in 14 days.

“Maintaining the current rate of decrease in cases, we would reach an average of 200 cases per day, which would reach the threshold of scenario B (100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days) nationwide at the end of March-beginning of April” , A. Šimaitis explained.

Due to the reduction in preventive testing and mobile point testing, investigation volumes now reach October levels. The number of patients treated for COVID-19 and the number of deaths from this infection continue to decline steadily.

We present the analyst’s detailed observations.

one) Dynamics of cases and investigation – the number of new cases detected per day and the proportion of positive tests among all those carried out in Lithuania continues to decrease. There are more and more municipalities where the average number of daily cases for 7 days is 10 or less, on February 1. He was 42 years old (37 a week ago).

Latest COVID-19 data

to. On average, 807 new cases were registered in 7 days (960 a week ago), the proportion of positive tests was 9.2 percent. (a week ago – 10.2%), and the morbidity of 14 days was 100 thousand. there were 447 cases in the population (535 a week ago).

second. The number of cases is decreasing in all counties. The number of municipalities with an average of 10 cases per day or less per day continues to grow; we now have 42 cases (37 a week ago). There are also municipalities where the percentage of positive surveys is 5%. or less: February 1. there were 7 of them (a week ago – 1).

C. The prevalence of the virus in the country remains very high. During the last 14 days (January 19 – February 1), COVID-19 cases have been detected in most of the country’s elderly, but their number has significantly decreased compared to the peak period (December 22 – December 4). January). In comparison, with the start of the second wave (from September 29 to October 12), more than half of the cases in the elderly Lithuanians were not registered. Approaching 200 cases per day, the number of “green areas” in Lithuania will increase where there will be no new COVID-19 cases in 14 days.

Latest COVID-19 data

re. The acceleration of the pandemic in Lithuania is negative for 31 consecutive days and currently stands at -11%, that is, the weekly average of both the number of new cases per day and the percentage of positive tests has decreased by at least 11% in 7 days. .

me. Maintaining the current negative pandemic momentum, a seven-day average of 200 cases per day would be reached in late March or early April. Maintaining an average of 200 cases per day would achieve scenario B – 100 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in 14 days.

2) 2021 February 2 morning data, COVID-19 occupation of treatment and resuscitation beds it ranged from 54 to 58 percent. The total number of hospital admissions decreased about 14 percent during the week. and this trend has been maintained for 4 weeks. The number of patients treated in resuscitation is decreasing more slowly.

3) last week deceased Since COVID-19, the number has continued to decline, and the total number of deaths in the country has risen slightly and is still well above the average for previous years.

Latest COVID-19 data

546 new cases

Last day 546 new cases of COVID-19 were detected in Lithuania, 17 people died, the Department of Statistics reported on Tuesday.

In addition, the general mortality statistics include five more deaths from coronavirus when the actual date of death is earlier.

Last day, 1,782 people recovered from COVID-19.

In Lithuania, since the start of the pandemic, COVID-19 has affected 183 thousand people. 444 people, 131 thousand. 151 people recovered, 47 thousand. 180 – tebeserga.

2,847 people have died from coronavirus in the country.

Last day, 1,019 people received the first dose of the vaccine and 1,729 people received the second dose.

In Lithuania, the first dose of the COVID-19 vaccine was administered to a total of 72,000 people. 604 people, both doses – 23 thousand. 172 people.

Last day 7,258 investigations were carried out in the country for suspected coronavirus, for a total of 1 million cases since the start of the pandemic. 938 thousand 355.



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