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The number of new cases grew nearly 30 percent during the week. According to the data analyst, we are still climbing the incidence curve, and we are doing it fast enough, and it is not clear when we will stop.
“We spoke last week that the situation is getting worse, the situation has not changed. We have about half a million people who can get sick, and now the question is what will happen first. The only goal that will help us fall into cases and handle the situation is immunity. Unvaccinated people can acquire immunity after vaccination or after getting sick, ”V. Zemlys-Balevičius told Delfi’s program in the morning.
The scientist did not shy away from irony when talking about a strategy to get out of the pandemic.
“Now soon there will be fifteen hundred cases a day, and four thousand will be vaccinated somewhere. (…) This means that this winter season (until spring) we will either get vaccinated or we will get sick again. This is good and bad. We could do it more fast, but unfortunately we will probably do it, as always, in Lithuanian: we will be the last to be baptized, the last to emerge from the pandemic, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The number of cases among children is increasing
During the week, the number of cases in some groups of minors increased by 80 percent.
“We saw a greater number of tests last week, and then we saw the real situation. In the 0-19 age group, growth is dramatic. This is quite interesting because there is a group of 20 to 29 years in which growth has stopped and it is not increasing.
Perhaps this is due to the fact that universities have a passport to opportunities, and there is a high percentage of vaccinations, and perhaps people have become more aware. Remember that cases do not occur because we are testing. The cases occur because the children are sick, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The expert considered that there are three solutions to this situation: who can be vaccinated should be vaccinated; schools must be careful (masks, ventilation, etc.); and more tests.
“Of course, it is unpleasant to isolate yourself, but if we do the tests, we can isolate the children so that they do not spread the virus further. There is no good solution, we just have to survive that epidemic. We can save children by vaccinating and thus reducing the spread, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
This year things are going faster
Compared to last year, this year all processes started earlier.
“Last year there was an increase in September, but the big growth occurred around the elections, at the end of October. And we are already experiencing that growth,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The data analyst estimates that in the worst case, we will have perhaps eight thousand deaths in older age groups.
“It just came to our knowledge then. (…) Compared to last year, we started to climb earlier, we will probably peak earlier. When exactly it will be, it is difficult to say. It depends on the number of vaccinations: the more people can be vaccinated, the lower the peak and the lower the consequences, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
According to the researcher, the increase in the number of cases is related to the weather and changes in people’s behavior. This is the price we pay for the delta because it is more contagious and because of the non-vaccination.
We can learn from other countries
Talking about the situation in other countries, the researcher urged not to get angry because there are people somewhere who are successful, but to learn from their experience.
“Israel, for example, has shown us that the third dose is important for the elderly. And we take that. Denmark, the United Kingdom show us that vaccination of the elderly and, in general, vaccination of the entire population is very important, because then a certain level of exemption (restrictions) can be reached. Since we have not done it yet, we can see how Denmark does it.
What to do with us: the measures to combat the epidemic have not changed since last year, only that we have a huge weapon: vaccination ”, said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The data researcher explained that the increase in the number of cases in Israel means that there is a significant part of the population in that country that is refusing to be vaccinated or trying to evade the management of the epidemic.
“A religious group recently called. They went to Ukraine for religious reasons and, upon their return, they returned counterfeit COVID certificates (…) so that they could return comfortably. When we have such a section of the population, and of course there are Orthodox Jews who are more skeptical about a variety of reasons, but not only that, we have a section of the population that, for various reasons, opposes the control of the epidemic of the state. politics. Then there are the problems, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
At the same time, the scientist points out that Israel itself does not dramatize situations by itself.
“There are 1,200 people in the hospitals, but for Israel it is a number that says ‘with whom we can live’,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
According to him, once a sufficient number of people have been vaccinated, it goes from an unvaccinated epidemic to a vaccinated epidemic that is comparable to an influenza epidemic.
“We just realized that the fight was no worse than the flu. With the vaccine, yes, without the vaccine it is obvious, no,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
According to the scientist, we also have similar problems: we have a significant part of the population that does not want to be vaccinated, which contradicts the state policy for managing epidemics and, as a result, we have a prolonged epidemic.
“If we were like the Scandinavian countries, where support for state policy is very high, we would get along faster,” Zemlys-Balevičius said.
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