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Presidential adviser Simonas Krėpšta said this week it will be very important to assess the actual figures.
“We can say that the quarantine is working, the growth rate has slowed significantly. But we see that the daily numbers are not decreasing yet. This week will be very important, which will show whether we will be able to break the pandemic curve down. At the end of the week, we will see a real situation, because three weeks have passed since the announcement of the quarantine, ”said S. Krėpšta.
The President’s Counselor welcomed the government’s speeches on the possibility of prolonging the quarantine.
“We just realized that the quarantine had to continue. We see that the two-week quarantine is taking effect, without which the situation would be much worse. We also see that three weeks will be too short a time to reduce the level of daily infections to such a proportion that they are easy to track and reduce the very heavy burden of medical institutions, ”explained adviser to President G. Nausėda.
The situation is still difficult
Professor Mindaugas Stankūnas stated that the coronavirus situation in Lithuania remains difficult. According to him, although there were signs of optimism, the situation is deteriorating again.
“The situation of the coroanvirus in Lithuania is still complicated, our previous forecasts proved to be quite accurate. But it is unfortunate that we are in a more pessimistic than optimistic scenario, we previously predicted that the peak will be reached from 20 to 27 November, so the situation should start to improve. In fact, in the middle of last week, we saw signs of low optimism. If we look at the effective ratio R, it was on November 16 that it had dropped to 1,009. It got so close to our desired limit that there would be less than one . (…) This was the lowest value of this indicator since September 8. But on November 17 it started to grow, today it reaches 1,163, which is quite a lot ”, explained the professor.
The professor said the number of cases is projected to increase through December 11.
“Recent epidemiological data have forced us to review our forecasts. It should be said here that there is not such great optimism. We do not rule out the possibility that in the near future we will see a decrease in the number of new reported cases, but in terms of The morbidity curve should not change direction until early December. We believe that the growth in cases should continue until December 11, “said M. Stankūnas.
The scientist also shared scenarios for the great celebrations of the year.
“Today we have made forecasts for the president, in which we try to calculate how the situation could be at Christmas and New Years. We believe that at Christmas, if the quarantine works, people will follow the recommendations, we can have much fewer cases, we predict that then there could be about 20 thousand. active cases, ”Professor M. Stankūnas said at the press conference.
Advocates for the continuation of the quarantine
According to M. Stankūnas, the quarantine must continue.
“I think we all have to accept the idea that the quarantine will be extended. (…) I think they are really true for the most part, they should continue. But what needs to change, even in this expert council (…) convened by the president, we will definitely try to refine the proposals, we will be able to give our opinion on what should be done, what should be changed, ”said M. Stankūnas.
The professor was told that nonessential stores could be considered to close.
“It may be worth considering, the movement of people to supermarkets has decreased. (…) Not as much as in spring, but in decline. But what surprises us is the increase in people visiting supermarkets,” he said.
Instead of blaming, praise people for what they do.
The psychologist who participates in the working group, dr. According to Paulius Skruibis, it would encourage people to focus more if “we clearly state the goals we are striving for and how we can all see if we are close to that goal.”
“We strongly suggest specifying what kind of behavior we expect from people, what should and shouldn’t be done,” said P. Skruibis.
At the same time, the psychologist emphasized that reproaches do not provoke a positive reaction, but more resentment. According to him, people in today’s situation follow the rules more than they don’t.
“Perhaps we will emphasize them and appreciate that people adhere to it,” said P. Skruibis.
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