There is an unprecedented crisis in relations with Belarus: we have to admit facts that are also unpleasant for Lithuania

The increasingly harsh rhetoric of the current leader of Belarus, A. Lukashenko, directed both against his compatriots who have been protesting for a month and a half, and against the states that have expressed their support, especially Lithuania, has so far only received verbal statements and promises of sanctions.

And while both Lithuanian officials and observers claim that Lukashenko’s open threats, militant statements and promises to “close the border” remain just fists, both for the internal audience, especially his supporters, and for the Kremlin, things can change quickly.

And that would not necessarily mean Lukashenko’s overt and suicidal aggression against Belarus’ neighbors. There are no silent warnings that Lithuania’s recent position on Lukashenko himself and lack of influence reveal at least some programmed problems: Lithuania, which does not have a long-term strategy towards Belarus, knows too little of the Belarusians, both of the regime. as of the middle class, Speculations about the future of the neighboring country may one day end with the unexpected deterioration of the security situation at the border for Lithuanians, when the border will no longer be with Belarus but with Russia.

Communicate with an illegal leader?

The month-and-a-half protests and brutal crackdown on the Belarusian people did not topple Lukashenko, the country’s long-time leader. Neither Lithuania nor the rest of the European Union recognize him as their legitimate president, but even if no agreement is reached on how to proceed, to apply tougher sanctions to the regime, it is Lithuania and Poland that have been targeted by Lukashenko.

Experts point out that so far these are just fierce statements with shots fired and useless threats to close the border.

“I think it is a more belligerent rhetoric, Lukashenko has not done anything new in his actions. The same border, whether he wanted to say that he would close the movement of people and goods, or something else, but he did not,” Lukashenko recalled about threats from the international relations expert, former director of the General Jonas Zemaitis Science Center, Lithuanian Military Academy Doc. Dr. Nortautas Statkus.

According to him, Lukashenko chose Lithuania as a natural and closest target, because it was Lithuanian diplomats and the president who were among those who most actively tried to put together a common and as strict as possible position on the regime across the EU. Furthermore, Lithuania was one of the first to openly name Lukashenko as an illegitimate leader: after the performance of the presidential elections on August 9 and the protests (and brutal repressions) since then, Lithuania has already decided on a sanctions list, and the Lithuanian Seimas has adopted a strict resolution. But which of the following?

“It just came to our knowledge then de facto Lukashenko remains the leader of Belarus and will be contacted. It seems to me that it is not a bad thing that neither Lithuania nor Minsk have called the ambassador and that the possibility of contacts and communication remains. For example, we have not had an intergovernmental commission with Moscow since 2012, but technical problems are being solved, so maintaining these contacts will allow solving problems of borders, customs, illegal migration and the fight against terrorism, ”said N. Statkus.

“It is necessary to understand not only the strategic interests, but also to ask: what will happen next? In Lithuania, we are fighting at an operational and tactical level, and now all institutions must think about what will happen next, ”he added.

No leverage or political will?

According to Laurynas Kasčiūnas, member of the Seimas and president of the parliamentary group For Democratic Belarus, this situation is not common: Lithuania does not recognize the results of the distant presidential elections in Venezuela or the territorial disputes in northern Cyprus, Serbia and Kosovo, but the leader of the neighboring country. What could the consequences be?

“We could not be on the side of the Belarusian nation, it is a valuable moral self-determination of Lithuania. And everything else is a difficult issue, because in 26 years neither Lithuania nor the West have gained influence within Belarus so that our position can guide that country. Yes, there is a problem here “, – L. Kasčiūnas escaped direct answer, noting that now” there is no leader in Belarus, only the requirement to hold new fair elections “.

According to L. Kasčiūnas, it is still difficult to expect a greater result, because without the leadership of the large EU countries in Belarus, which the West not only does not want to treat as another leader, but also hand over to the Kremlin, it would now be possible to return to strengthen national sanctions.

After all, who can guarantee that the owners who beat people in Minsk or other cities a few weeks ago or ordered them to do so will not come to Vilnius and Druskininkai in a few months and have fun here, and Lithuanian businessmen will be happy with your money: the bonuses awarded by A. Lukashenko?

“One thing: according to the laws, we do not have the right to freeze assets, theoretical deposits in banks, just to prohibit entry into the country,” said L. Kasčiūnas. Secondly, N. Statkus added that the issue of tougher sanctions is now a matter of the will of Lithuanian politicians who are disappointed with the EU decisions.

“Here we have to ask the politicians who are going to take responsibility for national security and foreign policy what they think,” Statkus recalled.

A survey conducted in late August and early September showed 44 percent. The Lithuanian population agrees that Lithuania should support sanctions against the Belarusian authorities for fraudulent elections and the use of force against protesters, even if this would worsen the political and economic relations between Lithuania and Belarus.

The reins are in the hands of the Kremlin

And if now relations with Belarus seem to have deteriorated as they once fell apart with Russia, then they could be even worse. Although it would not be a tragedy.

According to N. Statkus, if such a situation occurs that the ambassador of Lithuania or another EU country that does not recognize the legitimate president of Belarus of A. Lukashenko had to present credentials to the Belarusian leader, there could be a case of degrading relations. This would simply mean extending the mandate of the current ambassador or demoting the representative.

“I imagine a situation like this when a temporary affairs manager is appointed and all,” said N. Statkus. L. Kasčiūnas, who agreed with him, admitted that such a situation is not ideal, because in any case Belarus is turning to the Kremlin.

“Let’s start with the fact that Lithuania tried to apply a two-traffic strategy: it maintained contacts with representatives of the regime, royal hosts and supported democratic forces. There have been warming, colds, many countries have applied it, but it must be admitted that, in the In practice, the West has not gained influence over Belarus.We see Russian domination.

And by establishing Lukashenko’s algorithms of action, he wants to be reluctant to return to the regime: how many reins will he fire? In fact, the crucial question is how much will he have those reins in his hands and how much will he say from the east, what to press, what to fire, “emphasized L. Kasčiūnas on the role of the Kremlin, adding that Lukashenko cannot easily open the slightest bit. illusion of control in your own country.

“Lukashenko is trying to live with the protests. And the tradition is already established: protests on weekends, some people are arrested and things happen again, the same situation.

But the economic situation in Belarus is difficult, so closing the borders and shifting flows from Klaipeda costs a lot, such actions are hampered by calculations, what will Lukashenko be like in half a year? He cannot close easily with one hand because he will suffer, ”said L. Kasčiūnas.

New border with Russia

However, such statements by A. Lukashenko, when he no longer has true freedom of maneuver, may eventually hit Lithuania with another stick. But not the one mentioned by about 30 percent. A. Lukashenko, who supposedly represents the GDP of Lithuania’s Belarusian goods exports.

After all, if until now the opinion of the Lithuanian military and political elite prevailed that the military and security structures of Belarus and Russia are particularly connected and the threat is assessed in a similar way, Lukashenko, now weakened, will not even leave illusions. about who really rules the country.

“We have to count and think about the fact that he was not an independent manager. At least before, you had a 48 hour neutrality option. This is important to us in terms of national security.

Oleksandr Turchynov, former secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said that Lukashenko’s request to secure the border had been confirmed during the day, and at night, “heated”, Lukashenko said that “if the Russians pass through us I’ll inform you 48 hours in advance. “

Now those hours have decreased, in any case, Lithuania must be prepared for this border with Belarus to become a border with Russia. Therefore, the defense and national security strategy should be shaped accordingly, perhaps the defense plans and the deployment of US forces should be reviewed when a window of opportunity opens for Americans leaving Germany, ”commented L. Kasčiūnas .