There is a possibility that in 2068 an asteroid will land on Earth: scientists are making plans

Unfortunately, every asteroid seen from afar has some celestial bodies that we only notice when they fly relatively close to Earth, writes sciencealert.com. Even when we know in advance an imminent threat, it is not easy to accurately calculate the probability of a collision with our planet.

One of those asteroids is 99942 Apophis. Its orbit worries you a bit. The 370-meter-long celestial body discovered in 2004 was on NASA’s watch list. Scientists are absolutely convinced that it will not face Earth in 2029, but they are not sure if it will be able to avoid a catastrophe in 2068 when it returns.

Although the probability of a collision in 2068 is about one in 150,000, an asteroid of this size would cause an explosion more powerful than an atomic bomb, so it is best to recalculate.

It is true that the presentation at the Virtual Conference of the Division of Planetary Sciences of the American Astronomical Association is unlikely to be reassuring. Late last month, David Tholen, an astronomer at the University of Hawaii, presented the findings of his own research and that of his partner Davide Farnocchia. Scientists observed the asteroid Apophis for three nights in January and one night in March.

They were able to collect extremely accurate information about the celestial body and detect Jarkovsky’s acceleration. This means that the side of the asteroid facing the Sun radiates much more heat than the dark side, creating an asymmetric impulse that changes its orbit slightly.

Due to the collision of the Jarkovsky acceleration in 2068, the scenario cannot be ruled out, explained D. Tholen in his presentation. “This asteroid must be followed very carefully. It is clear that its approach in 2029. will provide essential data,” said the astronomer.

2029 Apophis, which will return in April, will fly very close (closer to some communication satellites), giving scientists a wonderful opportunity to explore the asteroid in greater depth. With less than nine years to go, the Lunar and Planetary Institute held a webinar this month to discuss future actions.

“Knowledge is the first line of defense of the planet. Apophis, which will fly in 2029, is a very rare opportunity, said representatives of the Moon and Planetary Institute. – We need to plan special missions in less than 10 years, during which the data collected would provide unprecedented knowledge of the physical properties of this asteroid. After all, it is one of the potentially dangerous celestial bodies. “

If we’re lucky, we can organize a Bennu-like mission to the Apophis asteroid and explore it with a spaceship, because you won’t see everything with telescopes. This asteroid is “a great opportunity to develop and demonstrate a response system to threats near Earth’s orbit,” explained Brent Barbee, an aerospace engineer at the University of Maryland, during the virtual conference.

Although George Dvorsky, a researcher writing articles for Gizmodo, has identified a number of options, we have not yet decided exactly how to “welcome” a guest who flies from space.

Maybe we launch a new spacecraft, send OSIRIS-Rex in a short direction in reverse, or just observe a celestial body from Earth, but we should still learn a lot of interesting things about an uncomfortably close neighbor. Hopefully we can say exactly whether Apophis will take on our planet in 2068 and decide what to do next.