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Roughly a third of voters will be able to participate in a three-day vote starting Friday that will elect representatives to various levels of government in 83 regions, including 18 governors.
The elections are taking place against a background of unprecedented anti-government protests: discontent with power in neighboring Belarus and daily demonstrations in the Khabarovsk region of Russia’s Far East since July over the arrest of a popular governor outside the ruling party. .
Analysts say the government is taking all possible measures to try to curb the opposition.
“The Kremlin sees a real threat,” said Vladimir Gelman, a political science professor at the European University of St. Petersburg. “Putin’s opponents are likely to come under increasing pressure.”
Putin, 67, enacted constitutional changes that allow him to extend his two-decade term until 2036, which he “received” 78 percent in a July referendum. voter approval.
This year, however, the Russian leader’s popularity has dropped to an all-time low as falling oil prices and the Covid-19 pandemic triggered a recession that reached 2020. It can lead to around 4 percent. . economic contraction.
Opposition leader Alexei Navaln tried to win support for candidates who opposed the ruling United Russia party after he was poisoned in Siberia last month by what German doctors later called Noviocok, a nerve-crippling gas. used in the army.
On Monday, he woke up from a coma in a Berlin hospital where he was airlifted for treatment.
Despite pressure from European leaders led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Russia has so far not investigated the case, saying it has no evidence that Navaln, 44, has been poisoned.
The Kremlin rejects allegations of state involvement in the incident.
Navaln, whose online videos revealing high-level corruption in Russia have garnered millions of followers, has been jailed multiple times for organizing and leading street protests for alleged election fraud.
In a video shot during his trip to Siberia and released when Navaln found himself in hospital, he asks viewers to support his “smart vote” initiative, which encourages them to vote for the regional politicians most likely to defeat Russia. United. candidates.
The party lost a third of its seats when this tactic was used in last year’s Moscow City Council elections.
Navaln once became famous for calling “United Russia” a “party of crooks and crooks.”
His campaign this time calls for the support of some 1,150 candidates who have a better chance of winning the ruling party in municipal elections in regional capitals and cities with more than 200,000 inhabitants, a kind of rehearsal before 2021. autumn elections to the Duma of the State (lower house of parliament).
The campaign has also nominated its candidates in various regions, including Novosibirsk and Tomsk.
“The poisoning could provoke a strong response that would undoubtedly accelerate the decline in support for the regime,” Ivan Zhdanov, director of the Navaln Anti-Corruption Foundation, said in an interview with the Moscow office.
Supporters after the poisoning decided not to hold public protests to avoid mass arrests that would harm their organization, he added.
Putin is still much more popular than United Russia. Its ratings rose six percentage points to 66 percent in August, according to Moscow-based independent surveyor Levada, as economic activity is already picking up after the easing of coronavirus controls.
According to the State Research Center for Public Opinion of Russia (VTsIOM), the ratings of “United Russia” are just over 31 percent.
The authorities have made it difficult to register opposition candidates, especially at the regional level.
For example, five of the 18 candidates for governor of the Communist Party (considered a strong competitor) were rejected.
In any event, the current governor faces an unequal fight in half a dozen outermost regions, including Irkutsk, where there was great discontent following last year’s catastrophic floods, and Arkhangelsk, where protests have halted landfill construction plans. .
Election watchers warn that this decision to hold three-day elections, including online voting, will make fraud harder to detect. Golos, a voter organization, says the regional elections are being held in “the worst legal system in 25 years.”
A. Members of Navalno’s team are already complaining about the attacks. In Novosibirsk, for example, several volunteers fell ill after the attackers on September 8. threw a bottle of harmful substance into his office.
A day later, the police organized more than 20 raids against candidates and their supporters, backed by exiled tycoon Mikhail Khodorkovsky. Putin’s critic supports 500 candidates in four regions: Vladimir, Ivanovo, Tatarstan and Novgorod.
Despite the pressure, the opposition may show in the elections that it has the potential to become a “major obstacle to parliamentary control of the Kremlin”, with United Russia currently holding a two-thirds majority, Nikolai Petrov, member of Chatham House , based in London.
“2021 the situation will be much more complicated for the authorities,” he says.
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