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The Taliban extremists, who have been strengthening positions in recent days, say they already control 85 percent. Territories of Afghanistan. The Kabul government denies this, however, an air defense system was installed at the capital’s airport to protect it from missiles.
Despite the escalation, the United States will complete a 20-year military mission in Afghanistan next month. In early July, US forces quietly left Bagram air base without even warning the new Afghan army commander.
In addition to the Americans, forces from other Western countries are withdrawing from Afghanistan: the last Lithuanian soldiers returned home at the end of June.
Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told Fox News on Sunday that the United States was “concerned” about the situation in Afghanistan: “This is a time for Afghan government forces to act and defend their country. This is a time for responsibility “.
VIDEO: Compass: After 20 years of war, Americans leave Afghanistan in chaos
Egdūnas Račius, a professor at Vytautas Magnus University and a religious researcher, assures that the fact that the Taliban are occupying more and more territories is related to the withdrawal of Western forces; the Taliban have been waiting for this opportunity.
“The Taliban have a wide range of support, and support for those areas is perfectly logical, legal, because the locals often see the Taliban as an alternative to the situation they have found themselves in for the past 20 years.
In other words, the Taliban are not actually hijacking territory, they are just going back to where they have a lot of support. ” 15 minutes teacher.
According to Račius, tensions and military conflicts can arise in northern Afghanistan, where the Taliban are not supported.
“It is possible to return to the situation that existed before 2001, when the southern, eastern and central parts were controlled by the Taliban, and the government, as long as they remained, would be oppressed and settled in the north,” he added. .
The rise of the Taliban worries some Afghans and observers. Amnesty International, a human rights organization, says the progress made by women and girls over two decades is at stake.
The organization notes that during the Taliban regime from 1996 to 2001, Afghans were not allowed to work, appearing in public without a relative’s husband. They were denied access to education and access to medical care was restricted. Similar bans now apply in Taliban-controlled areas, Amnesty International has said.
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Afghan officials urge Afghans to “take matters into their own hands” and join the armed struggle with the Taliban. Local support for Afghan security forces is said to have already helped in some areas.
Madiha Afzal, a regional expert at the Brookings Institute, believes the most likely scenario is that clashes between the Taliban and Afghan security forces will move to provincial capitals. However, this does not necessarily mean that the Taliban will inevitably take power.
AFP / Scanpix photo / Afghans arm themselves against the Taliban
The analyst predicts that there will be bloodshed in Afghanistan in the medium term. “It takes a lot of courage to be alone, to keep working. In the case of female journalists in particular, many have been attacked in recent months. Going to school may mean that you will not come home,” Afzal told Vox .
Is the refugee crisis maturing?
Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi warned last month that a new influx of immigrants should be expected when foreign forces leave Afghanistan.
Earlier this year, several EU countries agreed to host Afghans who had worked with foreign forces and were at risk of revenge from the Taliban.
The United Nations (UN) estimates that 56,000 people have had to leave their homes in northern Afghanistan in recent days. people. In 2021, more than 205 thousand people have already moved within the country. people.
After 1,000 Afghan security forces fled to neighboring Tajikistan last week, the country’s president sent 20,000 troops to the border. Army reservists.
Almost 3 million people are currently registered worldwide. refugees, in other words, 1 in 10 refugees is Afghan.
Michael Kugelman of The Wilson Center writes in the Foreign Policy portal that the next crisis in Afghanistan could be extremely acute: its components are rising insurgents, terrorist violence, the withdrawal of US forces, the declining peace process and extreme drought conditions. .
According to Kugelman, those fleeing Afghanistan are likely to collapse in Pakistan and Iran. It is true that in recent years the governments of these countries have tried to deport Afghans for economic and security reasons.
AFP / “Scanpix” nuotr./Vaikai Kabule
Europe is becoming an increasingly frequent destination for Afghan refugees across the Mediterranean, but EU countries have also deported thousands of Afghans.
Račius says Afghans who have collaborated with foreign forces are under threat: “Most likely they will be treated, the Taliban justice is very swift and brutal.”
However, ordinary citizens who do not get involved in politics are unlikely to suffer physical consequences, even if they are not close to the Taliban, the professor notes.
“It is very high that we will see another wave of people leaving Afghanistan. However, history shows that most of them live in neighboring countries, Iran and Pakistan, where they have relatives and ethnic linguistic closeness. <...> Will they seek access to Europe? I wouldn’t be so sure ” 15 minutes E. Račius said.
As the violence escalated, Afghanistan called on European countries to suspend forced deportations of Afghans for three months.
Frozen negotiations
The United States, led by Donald Trump, signed a peace agreement with the Taliban in early 2020. It was agreed to reduce violence, withdraw foreign forces from Afghanistan, start negotiations with the government in Kabul, and prevent the country from becoming a new a haven for terrorists.
Račius notes that negotiations between the Taliban and the government led by Ashraf Ghani are still ongoing.
J.Petronio nuotr./Egdūnas Račius
“It is worth noting whether the Taliban will be inclined to share power, to forgive Ghani and the previous Karzai government,” he said.
According to the professor, the Taliban should consider the government of Ghana as a collaborator of the US forces. However, E. Račius draws attention to the complex structure of Afghan society.
“It is primarily a tribal society, tribal confederations pursue national policies. However, competing Pashtun tribal confederations have a certain respect for each other.
They can identify some people that you can deal with and some that you can’t, otherwise there will be revenge waiting, “he said, adding that Ghani and former President Hamid Karzai belong to one of the confederations.
Pashtuns are the largest of the 14 ethnic groups in Afghanistan, accounting for 42 percent. populations.
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