[ad_1]
The general public did not receive much information about the recent meeting between Putin and Lukashenko in Sochi, which lasted about five hours.
People learned that Putin had invited the guest to take a bath, and Lukashenko had promised the Russian president that he would show him some of the documents he had brought in a packed suitcase.
“This whole scene was for retirees in both ‘brother’ countries. It was an attempt to impress people by the fact that the two leaders spoke fruitfully for five hours, and a bag from which Lukashenko, like Mayor Popin, can extract information that reveals the “real situation,” writes Rogov.
On the second day of the meeting, the Kremlin announced the second tranche of Russia’s loan to Minsk, although it had been agreed much earlier. Also added hugs, lunch on V. Putin’s yacht.
Scanpix / AP photo / On the second day of the meeting, V. Putin and A. Lukashenko set sail
“The idyllic image of Russia’s support for Lukashenko really masks the dramatic reality and the fact that the union is not friendly at all,” he said.
The goal is to take away the choice
According to Rogov, the current state of relations between Russia and Belarus is closely related to the annexation of Crimea and the large-scale confrontation of the Kremlin with the West.
After the Kremlin turned Ukraine into an adversary, essentially even pushing Kiev into the West’s embrace, little Belarus became much more important than before.
“It can be called the only comprehensive ally of Russia, the only real satellite state. The problem is that Belarus is not an unconditional partner of Russia. Nor is it a reliable satellite country,” notes K. Rogov.
Lukashenko’s decision not to recognize Crimea was more than a symbolic gesture: he left the door to the West open and reserved a seat in the international majority, and became a kind of mediator between Russia and Ukraine in the “Minsk peace process. “.
Not surprisingly, a security guard, close to V. Putin’s trustee, Mikhail Babich, was appointed Russia’s ambassador in Minsk.
“Yet such a cloak of neutrality has shown Moscow to be vulnerable and isolated. Not surprisingly, the Kremlin silovikai concluded that Lukashenko’s drift to the West is completely unacceptable, ”says K. Rogov.
According to him, as soon as V. Putin began his current term as president, the Kremlin launched an operation aimed at permanently “linking” Belarus with Russia. Not surprisingly, a security guard, close to Putin’s trustee Mikhail Babich, was appointed Russia’s ambassador to Minsk.
Reuters / Scanpix nuotr./Michailas Babičius
There were views that the new strategy was related to Putin’s desire to stay in power as long as possible. According to Rogov, there was probably a plan to unite the two states.
“But a more important strategic goal was to deprive Lukashenko of his choice and the opportunity to flirt with the West for at least a few years. The goal did not change when Lukashenko’s stubbornness and other complications forced the Kremlin to cancel plans to declare Putin. as head of state of the Union, “said the observer.
Creepy de facto annexation
Moscow has almost certainly made an effort to cause unrest in the country before and during the 2020 presidential elections in Belarus. Lukashenko, for his part, began to speak about “the Kremlin’s threat to the sovereignty of Belarus.”
“In fact, for the last decade, Lukashenko has been talking about ‘national sovereignty’ in the same way that he used to talk about an alliance with Russia.”
But neither he nor the Kremlin seemed to realize how many Belarusians no longer trust Lukashenko and the joyous atmosphere of protest that reigns in the country.
“Scanpix” / AP nuotr./Protestas Human
From a broader point of view, both sides did not understand that the attitude, at least of the young people, has fundamentally changed: many Belarusians imagine the country more as a welcoming province of Eastern Europe, as a neighboring Lithuania, than as a post. advance of Russian power ”, Writes K. Rogov.
Now the dreams of Soviet fraternity, which Lukashenko had boldly spoken of earlier and which Putin hoped to exploit, have not been shattered. And this meant that the election turmoil turned Minsk into a powerful political crisis.
The Kremlin now hopes that Lukashenko will crush any opposition, paving the way for a progressive plan for Belarus. de facto possession.
“In Moscow’s eyes, Lukashenko has lost the necessary political capital to effectively rule Belarus in the future. But Lukashenko remains valuable to Moscow as a Moor who must do what is asked of him,” the analyst said.
The Kremlin now hopes that Lukashenko will crush any opposition and thus pave the way for a progressive plan in Belarus. de facto possession.
“According to this plan, the symbolic steps of political reunification, which do not have the support of the Belarusian people, are postponed indefinitely, but the Russian capital, political forces and silovikai“Says K. Rogov.
A stone under the neck of the Kremlin
The landing of a Ryanair plane and the arrest of Romano Protasevičius, who was flying it, is a new turning point in this story. Who planned this operation and why?
According to K. Rogov, the first consequence was the Belavia crisis, probably one of the most successful economic projects of the Belarusian state. These airlines have already entered the European market in an orderly fashion, but are now being pushed out.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Novel Protasevičius
Who needed to sign a death warrant like that? To be able to see through the cameras the 26-year-old boy beaten by the prison guards? “Asks the political scientist.
Furthermore, EU countries are likely to agree on sectoral sanctions for the Belarusian economy. The arrest of R. Protasevičius really forced Europe to wake up and react to the repressions and human rights violations carried out by the Lukashenko regime.
VIDEO: Belarusian television publishes an interview with Roman Protasevich: parents believe it is the result of torture
In 2019, Belarus’ exports to the EU amounted to 8.5 billion. AMERICAN DOLLAR. If the regime lost at least part of that revenue, the economy would be hit by such a painful blow.
“At first glance, such a scenario would only increase Belarus’ dependence on the Kremlin. But the other side of the coin is the possibility that Moscow probably does not want to compensate Belarus for future losses in European markets.
Now Belarus, which could be ruined by a spiral of sanctions, already looks more like a stone under Moscow’s neck. And Russia appears to be deliberately trying to mobilize resources and survive in conditions of international isolation, “says Rogov.
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Putin and Lukashenko
In other words, Belarus’ deepening political isolation makes it easier for Moscow to ensure Lukashenko’s obedience. But it is already costing Russia.
“It will take several years for the poison cloud surrounding the Lukashenko regime to dissipate enough for Minsk to re-engage with Europe, so the Kremlin may simply freeze relations with Belarus and postpone the search for a solution to the future.
However, the most surprising thing is that Lukashenko, a fierce opponent of democracy and Western values, a natural ally of the Kremlin, dependent on Russia in all respects, is able to remain in the throat of Moscow, ”says Rogov.
[ad_2]
