The number of births in Lithuania has more than doubled in 30 years: scientists’ forecasts are sad

– According to 2018 data, the birth rate in Lithuania is 1.63. There were falls, there were rises. In your opinion, what influenced this?

– According to the data of the Lithuanian Department of Statistics, the number of births continues to decrease, in 2019, compared to 2018, the total number of births decreased from 28.1 to 27.4 thousand. Although birth rates are often estimated in absolute terms, the overall birth rate, which measures the average number of women who give birth to a woman in their lifetime, makes it possible to measure birth rates with greater precision. Absolute numbers are useful when we assess, for example, how many kindergartens are needed, places in them and the total birth rate, when we want to more accurately assess the birth rate, trends, comparing Lithuania in the context of other countries .

In the last almost 30 years, the number of births has decreased by more than half during the year, from 57 thousand. 1990 to 27 thousand. 2019 The change in the total fertility rate during this period was not consistent. Until the beginning of this century, there was a constant and very rapid decline. In 1990 this indicator was 2.03 in 2002-2005. it reached the lowest values ​​and was even lower than 1.3 (1.23-1.29). Later, it also started to increase in 2015. It reached 1.7, but since 2016. it drops again from 1.7 to 1.61.

– What caused these fluctuations in the birth rate?

– It was only after regaining independence that the decline in the birth rate was caused by the severe economic recession and the transformation of the country’s economy from Soviet to market economy. During periods of instability, family proliferation or even marriage is avoided. In addition, in the middle of the last decade of the last century, the diffusion of Western values, norms, attitudes and lifestyles began and the introduction of modern contraception, which caused family transformations: the postponement of motherhood and marriage, and the expansion of unmarried families. All of this lowered birth rates considerably. However, as the economic situation improved, older women formed families and had children. At the beginning of this century the so-called offsetting effect of the birth rate began, giving the impression of a fairly rapid increase in the birth rate. The average age of a woman giving birth to her first child is 23.0 years in 1994. It increased steadily in 2006. It reached 25.0, and in 2019 – even 28.0 years. Although a recovery in birth rates has been observed, birth rates have remained low, well below 1990 levels, and capable of generating generational change. Birth rates and fluctuations are affected by many other factors as well. In Lithuania, the potential impact of family policy measures on birth rates is often overestimated. Family policy also attributed the compensatory effect of birth to postponing motherhood at a later age, although no major decisions were made in this area at that time and family policy was relatively weak. Studies show that although a balanced family policy that meets the needs of the family can have an impact on fertility, it is small. Also, the effect can start to show quite quickly.

– And like things like changes in social security, other countries have adopted migration policies just to increase that birth rate. How much does it really work?

– The objectives of family policy are diverse. Few countries, such as Belarus, Russia, and France among Western European countries, directly state that their family policies are aimed at increasing the birth rate. The objectives of family policy are broader. The objective is to guarantee the well-being of children and families, employment, gender equality and the necessary conditions for reconciling work and family in the public and private spheres. As several international studies have shown, it is difficult to assess the impact of family policy on birth rates, as the impact depends on the complexity of family policy and the compatibility of different measures.

We have several measures in the Lithuanian Family Policy Package. Recently, the initiative of the Ministry of Social Security and Labor to involve parents in the care of children is relevant and welcome, especially considering that Lithuania, in the context of the European Union, stands out as the country with the largest gap between women and men in childcare time. The proposals presented have a broader context, as they focus on ensuring gender equality in professional and personal life. It is very important that men can participate in family life and that women continue to work. Guaranteeing such conditions creates preconditions for the establishment of gender equality and equality in the family, creating opportunities to share childcare and domestic activities in accordance with the expectations of both parents. According to international research, engaging in professional employment, childcare, and household chores that meet the expectations of both parents is an important precondition for recovering the birth rate. Recent legislative changes in Lithuania’s family policy have been initiated in accordance with the directive adopted by the European Union, which obliges the parties to provide the months of non-transferable childcare necessary for both the mother and the father. This would mean that both the father and the mother would have to take care of their child for at least two months and not work. The proposed system is quite flexible and it is gratifying that the public is involved in the adoption of the measure, asking what the population thinks and what option they would like to choose.

– But the birth rate still hasn’t risen …

– To assess the impact of family policy on birth rates, it is necessary to consider the full range of family policy measures. Imagine if parental leave gives you the opportunity to work for the second year, but we do not have a place to leave the child, there are not enough childcare services for children under 3 years: family policy measures are incompatible and the effect desired is not worth the wait. That would be a statement of family support. Legally there is an opportunity, but in reality the families could not take advantage of it. What is important is the family policy package and how those measures fit together.

Financial support measures for families raising children are important. It is believed and wrongly stated that birth rates can be promoted by increasing direct payments. International research and experience in other countries show that increased direct payments can only lead to having children in socially disadvantaged families. These are those with low income, less education. In the short term, this measure can reduce the number of economically weak families nationwide, but in the long term, the benefits can become an important source of livelihood for those families and “imprison” them in social exclusion and poverty. Direct payments can be seen as a more political tool used before elections and to create the image of a family caring for the family, especially in difficult economic times. Research shows that indirect financial support is much more effective. These include various tax exemptions, subsidies, tax refunds for education and childcare and housing services. .

The benefits for wealthy families will certainly not encourage them to have more children. For them, the favorable conditions to reconcile work and family responsibilities are much more important. To ensure the well-being of children and families, it is important to provide access to flexible forms of professional employment, to create a network of favorable childcare and education services, including not only kindergartens, but also after school or during the younger school holidays. Another measure is parental leave. Compared to other countries, the parental leave in Lithuania is long, well paid and flexible. The parental leave system is flexible in terms of the choice of duration, which determines the amount of benefits and the possibilities offered to combine childcare and professional employment. Flexible forms of work, including work from home, part-time work, and others, which have been the least developed measure to date, are likely to become more accessible to families as a result of different experiences of organizing work in families. the Covid-19 pandemic.

– And which is the most effective?

– It is essential that all family policies are compatible with each other and meet the needs of families and both parents. If they don’t match, they are simply declarative. It is widely recognized that the key is not only to increase the birth rate, but also to ensure the well-being of children and families, focusing on creating conditions conducive to the reconciliation of work and family life. Lithuanian women stand out in the context of the countries of the European Union for their high level of education and professional activity. International research shows that good childcare and education services are particularly important in this context. The municipalities are responsible for the care and education services for children under 3 years of age and of preschool age, which are still underdeveloped. Not only must a sufficient number of venues be provided, but services must be flexible, high-quality, affordable, and geographically accessible to meet the diverse needs of different families.

– Isn’t child money an effective tool to increase the birth rate?

– If there is any effect of direct learning, it is of short duration and affects only a selective group: socially weak families. And the more educated and economically well-off parents, when making a decision about having children, more often evaluate the possibilities of reconciling work and family, the availability and quality of care and education services for children.

– And if we compare Lithuanian cities and the province, is the birth rate very different?

– For three years in a row, the total birth rate in urban areas has remained stable at 1.53, while in rural areas it has been declining from 2.00 in 2015 to 1.81 in 2019. When evaluating trends over a longer period, it is worth mentioning that the rural birth rate has always been higher. The villages are home to less educated families, who still have more children. Recently, however, the gap in the birth rate between urban and rural areas has been narrowing. In large cities, such as Vilnius, where families are better off economically and women are more actively involved in professional employment, other trends are more educated. In these families, parents are more involved in childcare and household chores. Women have better opportunities to combine work, family and parenting. In large cities, major changes are being seen in the development of services for preschool and younger school-age children. In rural areas, not only access to child care and education services is more limited, but also patriarchal values ​​and attitudes when mothers have more time to dedicate to children and take care not only of their babies but also of all housework.

– How does Lithuania look with these indicators in the European context?

– According to the Statistical Office of the European Union, in 2018 the total average birth rate was 1.55, while in Lithuania at that time it was 1.63. This figure is highest in France with 1.88, in Sweden with 1.76 and lowest in southern Europe. Southern European countries stand out for their underdeveloped family policies and peculiar family organization, where the upbringing and care of children is concentrated in the family and often exclusively for women. They were more patriarchal. France stands out from all European countries for its ability to promote fertility. In particular, France has a long history of developing family policy. In France, a great deal of money is being spent on family policy and the goal of family policy is to increase the birth rate. A family policy has been developed that responds to the needs and expectations of mothers and fathers to reconcile work, family and parenthood. Family policies and services are aimed at children of different ages and are available from 2 months. In September of last year a law came into force that obliges all children from the age of 3 to attend educational institutions. France is focusing on a family policy package in which the measures are complementary. Although parental leave is long, it is not well paid. Indirect financial support measures have been developed: tax benefits, social housing system. Family policy services are tailored to different families, taking into account their different economic situations, with additional support for families with a second or third child. This is important because not only do children put off with age and are fewer and fewer, but they also have fewer or fewer children. Research shows that families who have their first child evaluate family policies and the chances of having other children. If the situation of raising children is unfavorable, it no longer motivates having a second or third child or postponing their birth. Nordic family policy is of a different kind. It focuses on supporting the family model of two working families as breadwinners. The principles of gender equality are followed in order to guarantee favorable conditions for the reconciliation of work and family, a favorable network of preschool childcare services has been created, and parental leave is favorable and generous.

– I have heard that to prevent the population from declining, the total birth rate must be at least 2.1. Why?

– This is a scientifically calculated indicator. It is not enough for two parents to have two children because not all children reach the age of the parents. In many European countries, including Lithuania, the population is declining not only due to low birth rates. Population change depends on three main demographic processes: births, deaths, and migration. The age structure of the population is also important for future population changes. The current age structure of the Lithuanian population is very unfavorable: a small generation of children and young people, a large proportion of old and old, and the aging processes of the population are very fast. This age structure of the Lithuanian population is a consequence of unfavorable demographic processes that have lasted for almost three decades. Not only because of the low birth rates, but also because of the intense emigration of young people. This will lead to a rapid long-term decline in the population in the future. Even if the birth rate begins to increase, population growth will not be guaranteed. The many older generations will be replaced by much smaller generations of youth and children. For the population to remain at least stable or increase, immigration must be greater than emigration. The beginning of an increase in return migration flows could weaken the rate of population decline in Lithuania. Due to the low birth rate and the old age structure, the population forecasts are unfavorable not only for Lithuania, but also for other European countries. Eurostat and United Nations demographic projections project a greater decline in European countries, including Lithuania

– These forecasts are sad …

– It is necessary to have a clear knowledge of the demographic situation of the country, the factors that led to it, to evaluate what measures can be taken to at least balance the age structure of the population. More important for sustainable demographic development is the non-population, the appropriate age distribution of the population, ensuring a sufficiently large generation of the workforce to support generations of children and the elderly.