The latest ratings point to a sad scenario: for these matches this is the worst that can happen

Huge competition

Professor at the Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), political scientist Rima Urbonaitė Delphi He said changes within the margin of error should only be viewed as possible trends, not specific changes.

“The changes are in error. So to say that in fact those parties have switched places and we really have the downfall of the Liberal Movement would be too bold. I think the question is whether the Freedom Party can really compete in real elections. What are the chances that these two matches will compete against each other when they may even need a photo finish? “Commented the political scientist.

When talking about the possible reasons for the growth of support for the Freedom Party, the interlocutor also mentioned the image of a new election, although with recognized politicians.

“The activity of the Freedom Party is being monitored, let’s not forget the very good evaluation of the mayor of Vilnius, Remigijus Šimašius. These rankings also reflect the history of Lukiškės beach. (…) The mayor of Vilnius has accumulated some capital of support during the management of the coronavirus pandemic in the capital. (…) I think I could have asked a bit like that. On the other hand, this party, although with the leaders it has seen, also has a freshness effect, “he said .

“The Liberal Movement, where it has problems, is no longer a ‘new party’. Although the top ten from both parties are weak, in my opinion, ”said the political scientist.

The interlocutor was once again surprised by the decision of the Liberal Movement to invite the president of the Seimas Viktoras Pranckietis to the elections. The political scientist considered that this could also reduce support for this party.

“It just came to our knowledge then. I can project that they could calculate. Yes, V. Pranckietis can win in a single member, but it is difficult to tell the whole party if it will be a plus,” said R. Urbonaitė, professor at MRU.

He said this public poll captured a snapshot, and just before the Seimas election, the situation could change dramatically.

“Relax now is the worst moment, the competition is strong, all parties have basically low scores. That means they have to compete for all the votes,” said R. Urbonait.

“One game is now more visible, the other is somewhat weaker. But it is not clear if this will give any result in the final. (…) The competition is fierce at the moment, so we must think not only about how the team will run. party in the kilometers that remain before the elections, but also to look askance at what the competitor is doing, ”the political scientist advised the parties.

R. Urbonaitė said that both the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement are quite similar in terms of visibility.

“But there is one area where we cannot see the whole picture: the regions. The Liberal Movement appears to have a better developed party infrastructure, which the Freedom Party cannot boast of, which is also a criterion. It seems that this party will try to focus more on Vilnius, ”predicted R. Urbonaitė.

A dramatic script

MRU associate professor, political scientist Vytautas Dumbliauskas Delphi He rated the latest public poll much more spectacularly.

“It seems to me that there will be a suicide by the liberal forces. I believe that A. Armonaitė will kill herself and the Liberal Movement politically, tendencies such that no party will be able to enter the Seimas,” said the political scientist.

V. Dumbliauskas assured that the number of liberal voters allows us to speak of such a possibility.

“There is a limited number of Liberal voters in Lithuania; from the 2012 and 2016 Seimas elections, it can be said that there were around 115 thousand Liberal voters. (…) It is correct to say that Liberals also have glass ceilings, and those two parties are enjoying it. If it were really a force, they would really enter the Seimas, “said the political scientist.

V. Dumbliauskas considered that the downward leap of the Liberal Movement, even within the margin of error, could have been determined by the participation of V. Pranckietis in the elections.

“I’m talking about trends that two parties for such a small electorate, which in the best of cases reaches 115 thousand. voters. After all, in 2016, the Labor Party did not enter the Seimas in a multinominal, because it raised about 50 thousand. Voter votes and that was not enough to get beyond the 5 percent cartel. This is the worst thing that can happen: that the electorate is split in half and no one enters the Seimas, ”said political scientist V. Dumbliauskas.

Only 4 parties would enter the Seimas

The latest public opinion poll, conducted from August 26 to September 4, shouldn’t delight any of the top three leaderboards.

The Lithuanian National-Christian Democratic Union (TS-LKD) continue in the first place in the leaderboard. Their support has fallen since the July poll: 16.1 percent would have voted for the party in July, down from 15.3 percent in August. surveyed.

Last month, the Conservative Union of Peasants and Greens (LVŽS) also lost some followers, exceeding the margin of error: in July, 15.6 percent would have voted for this party. According to the survey data for August – 13.7%.

The poll results before the elections should not please the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP), which ranks third: 9.8 percent would have voted for this party in July. surveyed, in August – 8.9 percent.

The Labor Party ranked fourth on the leaderboard in August. In July, the party would have been supported by 5.3 percent. According to data for August, this figure increased to 6.1 percent.

The Freedom Party, which had improved its result, remained in fifth place in the leaderboard, having voted for it with 4% in July. surveyed, this number increased to 4.8 percent in August.

The support of potential voters was lost significantly and usually 5%. the Liberal Movement, which jumped onto the cartel. In July, 6.2 percent would have voted for that party. of those surveyed, this figure dropped to 4.2 percent in August.

According to the leaderboard of the Liberal Movement, the new Freedom and Justice party, according to a July poll, would support the party by 3.8 percent. of those surveyed, in August – 3.2 percent.

This is followed by the Polish electoral campaign in Lithuania, the Union of Christian Families (LLRA – KŠS), whose results in public opinion polls are usually quite stable. This political force would have been supported by 3.3% in July and 3.2% in August. surveyed.

Support for the Lithuanian Social Democratic Labor Party (LSDDP) increased slightly during the month. In July, this party would have supported 1.7 percent, in August, 2.6 percent. surveyed.

The center party – the Nationalists received 2.4 percent in July. support of respondents, in August – 2.3 percent.

Summarizing the study, the results are presented by political parties and movements that collected more than 2 percent. Respondents’ responses.

The political parties and movements with the lowest percentage are summarized in the line “Another Party”. The other party would have chosen 6.3 percent. of those surveyed, 12.8 percent. said he would not vote, another 16.6 percent. the respondents did not answer the question or did not know it.

The error of the research results is 3.1%.