The latest post-quarantine ratings have some news: Experts advise against delusions

In this post-quarantine population survey, 3.1 percent. change that exceeds the margin of error is seen only in government performance evaluations. Compared to April, the proportion of people who evaluated government activities positively and fairly positively decreased from 42.8% in June. to 36.7 percent.

Respectively, during this period, the proportion of those who evaluated the activities of the Government in a negative and quite negative way increased from 49.3%. up to 55.6 percent. The proportion of those who did not know how to answer the question or did not answer was 7.9% in April and 7.7% in June.

“It is a kind of pause for the end of the quarantine, waiting for what will happen after the quarantine.” Public attention has shifted from government activities to other things. Due to that, the increase in the qualification has stabilized, although it is still necessary to see that until now the Government and Saulius Skvernelis have a sufficiently high qualification ”, commented Professor Lauras Bielinis of the Vytautas Magnus University (VMU).

Skvernel rating has increased

At that time, Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis’ rating was stable. He remained second after the leader of the conservative list Ingrida Šimonytė. 16.8 percent. surveyed in April and 16.7 percent. – declared in June that he was better placed to serve as prime minister. Šimonytė’s rating during that period was 18.5 and 18 percent, respectively.

The ratings of other politicians and the public have not changed substantially. The third in the table is former Transport and Communications Minister Rokas Masiulis, whom 4.2 percent wanted to see as Prime Minister in April and 4.1 percent in June. respondents Social democrat Vilija Blinkevičiūtė maintains sufficiently high marks (4.5 percent in April and 3.4 percent in June).

Gabrielius Landsbergis, chairman of the Christian Democratic Homeland-Lithuania party (TS-LKD), was fifth in the table, whom 3.6 percent wanted to see as prime minister in April and 3.2 percent in June. respondents The assessment of the mayor of the city of Kaunas, Visvaldas Matijošaitis, was 2.3 and 2.4 percent, respectively, the mayor of the city of Vilnius, Remigijus Šimašius, was 1.4 percent, respectively. and 2 percent.

The popularity of Social Democrat Vytenis Povilas Andriukaitis was 2.2% in April, 1.9% in June, and that of Labor Party President Viktoras Uspaskich 2.6%, respectively. and 1.8 percent, the president of the Lithuanian Green Peasants Union (LVŽS) Ramūnas Karbauskis – 2.2 percent, respectively. and 1.7 percent.

Neither the “peasant” nor the non-conservative rating is growing

In the rankings of post-quarantine political parties: stagnation. The growth of the LVŽS ranking in second place has stopped. In April, the party was positively evaluated at 12.7 percent and in June, at 12.9 percent. surveyed

However, the popularity of rating leader TS-LKD is also not growing, reaching 17.4% in April and 16.4% in June.

According to the analysis published on the portal lrytas.lt of another public survey company, Vilmorus, the difference between the TS-LKD and LVŽS ratings remained minimal after the quarantine. A poll by Vilmorus from June 5 to 13 showed that TS-LKD’s popularity reached 14.3 percent, and LVŽS – 13.4 percent.

In the Spinter poll, as in the Vilmorus poll, Social Democrats are firmly in third place, with a popularity of 9% in April and 8.8% in June.

The Labor Party was fourth, with 4.2 percent in April and 5.2 percent in June, and the Liberal Movement ranked fifth with 5.6 percent. and 5 percent.

Freedom Party is also close to the threshold to enter Seimas, with a popularity of 2.8 percent in April and 4 percent in June. The popularity of the Polish Lithuanian electoral campaign reached 3.9% in April and 3.7% in June.

The Freedom and Justice party, better known by the nickname “Three Musketeers,” earned a 3.2 percent rating in June. Another 6 percent. respondents would vote for any other party, 16.7 percent. – I would not vote, and 18.1 percent. Respondents remain undecided or reluctant to reveal their political views.

Fateful fight – for the undecided

The VMU professor would assess the stagnation in the party rankings with the stabilization of the situation after quarantine.

“The dramatic period is over and everyone is looking for new leaders. We can see that the Labor Party, which is very active in advertising, is making slow progress. And – Freedom Party, which can organize the focus itself in practically the same place. Look, on the sandy beach, we’ve been talking about Freedom Party and its members all week. This is a fairly strong step, allowing them to expect to exceed 5 percent if they continue to do so, “said L. Bielinis.

At the same time, the political scientist agreed with his colleagues, who say that, in general, the results of the parties are low. Even more over 18 percent. Respondents say they do not know why they will vote or do not answer the question.

“At the moment, we cannot decide whether those who are now at the top of the leaderboard will stay there, as well as those who are at the bottom.” This will become clear when 18% decide, which will only happen during the elections, “said L. Bielinis.

Party ratings are low

Professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences, doc. From the University of Vilnius. Dr. Mažvydas Jastramskis recalled that a couple of years ago he said that match scores were generally very low.

“If we look at the Spinter investigation or the Vilmorus table, we see that the situation has not changed significantly since early 2017, with one exception, that during that time the Labor Party has returned between competing parties,” Jastramskis noted. .

The party system researcher concludes that in the four years since the Seimas elections, no party in Lithuania, after the arrival of the “peasants”, has reached as high as 20 percent. Public support, in part, reflects two things: “One of them is that the parties remain institutions that the Lithuanians do not trust too much. Furthermore, our fragmented political map, where we have more parties than consistent dialogues and programs, is a great choice, new parties are emerging, and voters are dispersed among the parties. “

The scientist says that at this time, answering the question of how many parties will cross the cartel in the Seimas elections is a kind of lottery.

“There is a possible scenario in which three parties will join: TS-LKD,” peasants “and social democrats. It is also possible that we have a parliament of about eight parties. It would not be strange to have a puzzle like that either. Of course, the single members change everything else, “said M. Jastramskis

Criticizes the parties for lack of ideas

The VU TSPMI professor criticizes the parties for a certain hunger for ideas.

“Sometimes we hear people say that nobody reads the programs. Of course, when parties sign a 160-page document, even political scientists quickly read it. But each party must be able to summarize its program in ten key proposals, or summaries with which they agree, that is, what should not be changed in the state, “said Jastramski.

He noted that a few months before the election, the TS-LKD had released its program and accepted it by the Freedom Party (but was not discussing it).

“It seems that there are no problems in Lithuania regarding taxes, justice and education. I know that politicians will say that people are not interested in this. But it is their duty as parties to make people interesting. We have to take programmatic leadership and ideological, “the scientist told politicians, noting that so far very little has been done.

Don’t believe in any “rainbow” coalition

A party system researcher does not believe in any variant of broad “rainbow” coalitions after the elections.

“I would not succumb to the ingenuity of certain political commentators at this time about some kind of ‘rainbow’ coalition. I would say that the election in these elections is very simple and dichotomous, either with the Social Democrats with the ‘peasants’ or with the TS- LKD with the liberals.

Everything else can be wrapped in any of these alternatives. It seems to me that even the electorate and the parties themselves have not realized that this is the election. I don’t think the Social Democrats are going to the right, “said M. Jastramskis.

Market research and public opinion company Spinter tyrimai conducted a public opinion poll from June 18 to 26, 2020, commissioned by the Delfi news portal. The study included residents ages 18 to 75.

Combined survey method used: 50 percent. by telephone survey, 50 percent. The Internet. In the case of a telephone interview, the interview is conducted by a professional interviewer. Carry out a conversation with the respondent according to the prepared questions, recording the answers in a questionnaire. In the online survey, the respondent is sent a link to the survey, which the respondent independently completes at a time convenient for him / her. The link is unique, that is, the questionnaire cannot be completed more than once.
The study surveyed 1,014 respondents. The distribution of study participants by gender, age and place of residence is proportional to the distribution of the population in Lithuania.

The error of the survey results is 3.1 percent.