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“It is true that the limit for this climatic indicator is more conventional (Tmin ≥ 20 ° C), since it is unlikely that plants, animals or humans feel a significant difference between, for example, 19.8 ° C and 20.1 ° C. However, from a climatic point of view, this indicator becomes important to summarize the long-term thermal regime of the area. “
According to him, the high temperature of the night air, which is typical for tropical nights, combined with the heat of 28-33 ° C during the day and the afternoon heat not only bothers people (especially the elderly and the elderly). sick), disturbs sleep, but can cause various ailments.
“One of the ways to fight against this type of meteorological anomaly is to drink a lot of fluids, stay in the sun as little as possible, not work too much, ventilate and humidify the premises, etc. Another problem of the hot climate are perishable food, the rapid decomposition of organic waste, the deterioration of the quality of surface waters, especially in bathing areas close to urban areas.
On the other hand, tropical nights are very suitable for active nightlife, which used to be more typical only in the Mediterranean and southern Europe ”, he assured.
According to the climatologist, the latest heat wave started with very heavy rains on a local scale.
“Trakai Vok meteor Weather Station on July 6. registered an almost catastrophic intensity of rain (79.7 mm / 12 h) – only 0.3 mm left before the official criterion. In other parts of Lithuania it was between 5 and 20 mm, and in most of Lithuania it did not rain at all. At that time, less than 50mm of precipitation fell in Vilnius (the limit of natural precipitation), but still, as a local-scale precipitation, it is a very large amount.
Of course, the rain collectors, which are probably designed for less abnormal rain intensities, reacted first. They were suddenly clogged and caused flash flooding on some of Vilnius’s main arteries (e.g. Geležinio Vilko Street, Ave. Savanorių, Western Ring Road, etc.), causing cars to sink and drown, creating stretches of impassable roads “.
The strangest thing for G. Stankūnavičius is that not only large-scale but also high-resolution digital weather forecast models accurately modeled such heavy rain.
“For example, the very high resolution digital HARMONIE model of a limited area, the output of which is an integral part of the meteorological forecasts made in Lithuania, has not previously seen this very intense and rapidly developing field of precipitation.
Afternoon convection rains were forecast in central and some parts of western Lithuania. The last precipitation zone was associated with the Cyclone Valley of the Black Sea. The cyclone itself was already weakening, but abundant isolated rains began in its arid valleys due to daily convection, orographic barriers and other factors.
Lithuania July 6 At night, the valley itself was still occupied by an old atmospheric front that was developing, which is usually activated temporarily in the afternoon: convection clouds develop along it and local thunderstorms form and electric storms. However, this rain started early in the morning and no convection of the day will explain it. It is possible that the formation of powerful spherical rain clouds over eastern southern Lithuania was significantly influenced by negligible whale processes in the frontal zone, ”he noted.
He also explained that the maximum local precipitation in the southwestern, central and western part of Vilnius could be caused by the collision of the aforementioned atmospheric front circulation system with the city’s heat island, which occurs with greater intensity at night and in the zone. Early in the morning, a very humid air mass was observed, the integrated water vapor content was 38-40 kg / m2.
“Tomorrow is a day for the people’s predictions to be ‘7 sleeping brothers’: it was believed that if it rained all day that day, it would last another seven days, or even seven weeks, and if it did not rain at all on this day, too it was wrong because we have to wait for a longer dry period, this period is also very important for the climate formation processes.
On average, between St. John’s and the “7 brothers,” the large-scale thermobaric field over Eurasia and most of the northern hemisphere takes on the characteristics of a summer. The continent is heating up strongly and the minimum pressure from Eurasia (Pakistan, Gulf, Iran) is becoming the most intense. The South Asian monsoon expands as much as possible from this period, and the wet summer begins in the Far East.
In the Atlantic sector, the low pressure area in the Greenland-Iceland region is gradually strengthening, and the Azores anticyclone is expanding significantly towards Western Europe and moving as far north as possible. “
According to G. Stankūnavičius, this hot period is not completely free of precipitation, because yesterday there were occasional rains in Samogitia and somewhere in northern Lithuania and Suwalki.
“Today they are forecast on the seashore, and because they are isolated rain zones, the distribution of rainfall, even in a small area, will be very uneven. The heat will move away from the western part of Lithuania over the weekend, as the cold atmospheric front from the west approaches.
In the rest of the territory of the republic, the heat will remain, it will weaken only a few degrees, but the cloudiness will increase, in some places there may be light rains with thunderstorms. Although the atmospheric front will not remain on the seashore, it will completely weaken as it moves east and will completely disappear in the area of influence of the higher pressure system. “
At the beginning of next week, the climatologist said, the advent of air masses to the region is not expected, so the same air mass will heat up even more and the maximum air temperature will rise again to 29-34 ° C.
“There will be occasional thunderstorms with thunderstorms. The heat can still last through Wednesday and Thursday. The high pressure system over the Northeast Atlantic will strengthen in the second half of the week, and the warm high mountain range over Eastern Europe will weaken. , so we could expect more significant climate changes (cooling) at the end of next week.
Long-term weather forecasts suggest that despite the temporary cooling in the middle of the month, warmer and sunnier weather will be observed in Scandinavia, the Baltic region and western Russia until the end of the month. In Central and Western Europe, by contrast, cooler and more humid weather is expected for this period. “
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