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“This compact area of heavy rain came along with a small area of low pressure from Central Europe, and the area of humid air even came from the southeastern coast of the United States. Another area of low pressure near the English Channel will reach the Baltic Sea tomorrow morning and the Gulf of Finland and Karelia in the second half of the day The precipitation zone of the last cyclone fronts will arrive in Lithuania next night and tomorrow, with heavy rains in some places.
Tomorrow morning the west wind will strengthen: first on the coast up to 15-17 m / s, then in Samogitia and northern Lithuania, up to 12-15 m / s. On Sunday it is only possible to rain lightly and especially on the eastern outskirts of Lithuania. Today, a lot of warmer air will open in Lithuania for a short time, but due to cloudy air and wind, we will not feel it.
On Saturday and Sunday, cool and cloudy weather will prevail throughout Lithuania. Monday night will also be cool, with only 6-9 ° C heat in some places. From Monday to Wednesday, the regional high pressure area over Central Europe will strengthen and we will have more sun and the weather, at least during the day, will warm up a bit, to 18-24 ° C.
On Thursday, the frontal zone of a new cyclone with precipitation will reach Lithuania from the North Sea: the south-east wind will change in the south-west, it will rain in many places, it will remain warm in the east (20-24 ° C), and in the west will be cloudy, rainy and windy. In his weekly review, the researcher shares.
According to G. Stankūnavičius, the cyclone mentioned by him, which is due to arrive in Lithuania on Thursday, will not leave our region any time soon and will gradually decrease.
“Next weekend the weather will not be as cool as this week, but it will change. During the day, the air temperature will rise to 17–22 ° C, at night and in the morning it will drop to 9-14 ° C. In the east and north, it may rain shortly during the day, and in the west (especially on the coast) due to the Central European ridge, sunny weather is possible, however the reliability of the forecasts it is low due to the current mobile cyclones that are prevalent in northern Europe, ”reviews the longer-term forecasts.
The meteorologist has little good news for the rest of July. According to the scientist, current trends should be maintained.
“In the last ten days of July, according to various forecast sources, the current trend should continue: mobile cyclones over northern Europe and over western and southern Europe, the Azores anticyclone crest.” Although the climate in Lithuania is unstable in such a situation, air temperature and precipitation will be close to the norm for several years, “explains G. Stankūnavičius.
The scientist points out that today is exactly the day the weather was forecast for the next 7 weeks.
“Today, July 10. And in the past it was believed that today’s weather could predict the nature of the weather for almost the rest of the summer. This day is also called the Seven Sleeping Brothers. If this day is rainy, it will rain during another week (7 days), or even the next seven weeks. If it is dry, it is probably about a week before the end of summer. In short, it would turn out that you would be expecting rainy weather and most likely cold or drought. In Lithuania, the probability of such long periods with anomalous weather is low simply because rainy or dry weather generally does not last long throughout the whole territory of Lithuania, but only in part of it, ”says G. Stankūnavičius.
However, according to him, such an ancient weather forecast has not been completely broken from the finger, there is a scientific basis for this.
“In late June and early July, large-scale pressure and temperature fields in the northern hemisphere are finally converting to summer mode. The centers of atmospheric activity over the oceans, which weakened in the spring, are intensifying again : The high-pressure areas of the Azores (Atlantic) and Hawaii (Pacific) and the low-pressure areas of Iceland.The low-pressure thermal area over Asia is also reaching its greatest intensity, with the main center located in Pakistan and the Northwest India and the Gulf region. As a result, India’s summer monsoon is also currently the most intense. It is true that monsoon rains are very unevenly distributed in South Asia: the Middle East, the Arabian Peninsula, Iran and Central Asia (excluding mountains) receive almost no drops, while Bangladesh, the northeastern states of India, the southern Himalayas, and the western slopes of the western Ghats s. flooded Now there is between 150 and 400 mm of rain there per week. Other areas of heavy rain in Southeast Asia and southern and eastern China are more dependent on monsoon intensity in the Far East.
In Europe, a high pressure zone forms more frequently in July than in June in the southern and Mediterranean region, and sometimes in central Europe. The low pressure area extends over the Northeast Atlantic and Scandinavia. Southern Europe and the Balkans are characterized by a sunny, dry and often warm climate from early July to mid-September. As a result, many people in northern and western Europe associate their vacation plans with these regions in the middle and second half of summer. But there are exceptions. With the help of global circulation models, it was discovered that the position of the high pressure area on the Mediterranean and its stability are closely related to the monsoon intensity and stability of South Asia (India). When monsoon rains on the Hindustan peninsula are interrupted for a long time in the heat of the summer monsoon, the atmosphere is changing in the eastern Mediterranean and the Balkans. There may be rains and stronger winds ”, writes the meteorologist.
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