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After US President Joe Biden declared the end of the “eternal war” in April and pledged to withdraw troops from Afghanistan, Taliban activity on the country’s territory was growing rapidly.
Biden had planned to withdraw the last US troops from Afghanistan for the symbolic 9/11, which marks the 20th anniversary of the terror attacks in New York, but recent reports said the US president would end the US mission in Afghanistan. on August 31, saying “speed is safety.”
Furthermore, after a meeting with representatives of the Afghan government at the White House, the US president said that he thought the Afghan government was ready to control the situation and maintain power.
In recent weeks, the Taliban have carried out attacks in the north of the country, occupying ten districts. The Taliban encountered resistance from Afghan troops in only two districts, eight of which were captured without a fight.
According to the Tajikistan National Security Committee, 1,037 Afghan government forces have fled the border to seek refuge in Tajikistan after clashes with the Taliban.
However, international forces, as well as Afghan soldiers, are not the only ones withdrawing from the state. Fearful of the return of the Taliban, hundreds of ordinary people from the Afghan capital, Kabul, flock to the visa office to leave the country.
He attacked the first great city
Taliban fighters attacked the provincial capital, Kalai Nau. This is the first attack by the Taliban on a large city since the United States began withdrawing its troops.
Afghan authorities have confirmed that Kalai Nau, the capital of western Baghdis province, was attacked on Wednesday morning by Taliban motorcycle cavalry fighters from three different sides.
Local sources told the BBC that the Taliban had invaded the city prison and released some 400 prisoners, including about 100 of their own fighters.
The Afghan prison forces reportedly surrendered without a fight.
The city’s governor, Hisamudin Shams, said the intelligence headquarters had also been set on fire.
Afghan Defense Ministry spokesman Fawad Aman has promised that the attackers will be expelled. The Taliban themselves did not comment publicly on the fighting in Kalai Nau.
The ministry claimed that the insurgents had suffered heavy losses, but dozens of pro-government soldiers had also been killed.
Reuters reported that Afghan officials expelled Taliban troops invading the city and took back occupied government buildings on Thursday through airstrikes and the deployment of special forces.
As Taliban fighters occupy more and more territory every day, there are fears that a brutal civil war will break out and that the Afghan army will no longer be able to withstand the attacks when international troops fully withdraw from the state.
Iran had unexpected talks
Wednesday’s battle coincided with talks in neighboring Iran between Taliban envoys and Kabul government officials, including former Afghan Vice President Youn Qanooni.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif called on Taliban and government mediators to “make difficult decisions today about the future of their country,” Iranian state media reported. Zarif has also criticized the “defeat” of the United States in Afghanistan.
Last week, all US and NATO forces left the Bagram air base near Kabul, which served as a command center for operations against the Taliban. This withdrawal has drastically reduced the Afghan government’s airspace capacity.
According to the AP, there is a growing fear in Iran that the country will face a possible wave of refugees fleeing the unrest in Afghanistan. Iran already hosts hundreds of thousands of Afghan asylum seekers.
The Taliban urge Western military forces to leave the country in time.
Taliban spokesman Suhail Shaheen told the BBC that everyone after 9/11. The remaining foreign soldiers in Afghanistan will be considered occupiers.
“If they leave their forces in the country despite the Doha agreement that they have signed against many countries, we will react to it, and how we react will depend on our government,” he said.
The remarks came in response to reports that 1,000 US troops and their allies could remain in Afghanistan to protect diplomats and their missions, as well as Kabul International Airport.
However, Shaheen assured that the Taliban will not be tolerated by ordinary foreign diplomats, NGOs and civilians: “We are against foreign military forces, not diplomats and NGOs, our people need embassies and NGOs that work. We will not pose any threat to them, “he said.
What did the Taliban and the United States agree on in Doha?
Agreement between the Taliban and the United States to bring peace to Afghanistan, signed in 2020 February 29 In Doha, the latter agrees to withdraw all US, allied and coalition military forces from Afghanistan in exchange for ensuring that the territory Afghan is not used by any group or individual against the security of the United States and its allies.
The agreement also stipulates that a definitive ceasefire will be on the negotiating agenda for the Afghan internal dialogue (between the Afghan government and the Taliban).
The British foresee three scenarios for Afghanistan
UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Thursday that the twenty-year mission in Afghanistan, which claimed the lives of 457 British soldiers, has been completed and all remaining soldiers in the country are returning home.
At a state meeting on security, UK military chief Nicholas Carter assured that no provincial capital in Afghanistan had collapsed and considered a very realistic scenario that the Afghan government would crush the Taliban long enough to force them to speak up.
However, he acknowledged that for Afghanistan, this is only one of three possible paintings for the future. Others are the return to power of corrupt warlords or the victory of the Taliban. A US intelligence assessment published last month predicting that the Taliban could occupy Kabul in 6-12 months. period since the departure of NATO troops.
Expert predicts a turbulent future
Gerda Jakštaitė-Confortola, associate professor at Vytautas Magnus University and senior researcher at the General Jonas Zemaitis Lithuanian Military Academy, told news portal lrytas.lt that she could not say that during the 20 years of the mission, the United States had managed to reach your objectives.
“The results of the US mission in Afghanistan are contradictory: on the one hand, the Taliban regime in Afghanistan has been replaced by an elected Afghan government; the United States has committed more than $ 144 billion. Dollars for the country’s reconstruction processes and strengthening the Afghan security sector. On the other hand, the influence of the Taliban in Afghanistan has been on the rise recently. It would be too bold to say that the stated goals have been achieved. Overall, the future of Afghanistan now looks rather vague.
The president of the United States says that the objective of the mission has been achieved: justice has been achieved for Osama bin Laden. Biden, while still a vice president, has always been skeptical about the increase in the number of US troops in Afghanistan. “The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan was one of the promises of his election campaign,” said the political scientist.
According to G. Jakštaitė-Confortola, the efforts of both countries to comply with the terms of the peace agreement in Afghanistan signed in Doha are too small, but this does not change J. Biden’s decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan immediately.
“Despite the agreement, there has been no progress: progress in the implementation of the agreement is insufficient. Both parties to the agreement have allegations of non-compliance with the agreement.
The Biden administration, according to its official statements, is determined to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan, regardless of compliance with the agreement, and to complete a mission that is costly for the United States in financial and human terms. As J. Biden recently said, several more years of the US mission in Afghanistan will not change anything in the overall context of Afghanistan, therefore the country must take the initiative and responsibility into its own hands, ”said G. Jakštaitė-Confortola.
Speaking about the future of the state, the possibilities of the Afghan government to resist the Taliban and remain in power, the political scientist is skeptical.
“There are several possible scenarios: the first is that the Afghan government will be able to resist the Taliban and carry out reforms in the country. Second, the Taliban will strengthen and take control of the country; there will be an unstable situation in the country, conducive to the strengthening / renewal of certain terrorist groups. The latter variant is more likely, “reasoned G. Jakštaitė-Confortola.
