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Something stands out when the electoral results map is opened. Apart from the Kėdainiai district and south-eastern Lithuania, where the Labor Party and the Lithuanian Polish Election Campaign-Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS) performed better, the country led two political forces at the parties, the Union of Greens and Peasants of Lithuania (LVŽS) and the Union of the Fatherland. Lithuanian Christian Democrat (TS-LKD) – in colors.
Political experts consider that the first round of the Seimas elections confirms the theory that there are “two Lithuanians”.
The closer to the city, the more love for law
“It just came to our attention then. So far, it feels a lot,” says Vladas Gaidys, Vilmorus director and sociologist, about the influence of “two Lithuanians” in the elections.
According to the interlocutor, when the company he manages conducts surveys, the concept of “two Lithuanians” arises in its results. The bigger the city and the income, the more conservatives and liberals support each other, the smaller the city and the income, the more sympathy flies in favor of the peasants.
“Those factors – left and income – are highly correlated,” said V. Gaidys.
According to the sociologist, voters may not always be able to pinpoint exactly how the right differs from the left, but they intuitively feel who is more representative of their interests.
That is why, according to V. Gaidis, the regional voter used to elect the Social Democrats, now the peasants, and does not elect the right, because, according to the sociologist, the provincial voter identifies them as parties of “more successful people.”
According to Saulius Spurga, associate professor and political scientist at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis also put forward the “two Lithuanians” theory.
“I remember that in the middle of last year S. Skvernel was the first to draw attention to this problem when he called on the peasant party to be more modern, open, democratic, attractive to the inhabitants of the big cities. At the time he was talking about how he could choose a different path, a different political force. Since then, we have not heard of any changes in this match, S. Skvernelis has stuck with him. But the results are also relevant, ”reasoned S. Spurga.
Just talking, we break Lithuania
“I would say that this ‘two Lithuanians’ theory comes back during this election, not necessarily working, but demonstrating its manifestations. We were used to seeing the division between cities and regions until the 2016 elections. That is becoming clear again,” he said Ieva Petronytė-Urbonavičienė, doctor and political scientist at the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences (VU TSPMI), to the news portal tv3.lt.
According to her, this theory takes shape during elections, because citizens of different cities and regions live on different issues, worry about different problems, and therefore the choice of candidates is different.
“On the other hand, I am very reluctant to talk about this trend. The more we talk about those ‘two Lithuanians’, the more politicians want to scale them. And the more we discuss that theory, the greater we make that separation, we divide that Lithuania into separate parts with only talk about her ”, reasoned the interlocutor.
According to I. Petronytė-Urbonavičienė, although the results of the elections show the country’s division into two camps, the discussion about it marks a dangerous trend.
“We divided Lithuania into several parts and began to play with national integrity. Those differences, their exacerbation in society, especially now, in times of crisis in the context of a pandemic … It is not something so coveted that it requires concentration. <...> “The two Lithuanian theory works, but it is very, very sad,” said the political scientist.
„Who should Taiwan care about in that village? “
The theory that Lithuania is divided into only two camps has been somewhat refuted by the Freedom Party, which has been named the biggest electoral surprise. Although it was speculated that the political force led by Aušrinė Armonaitė would gather the largest number of their votes in the big cities, at the beginning of the regional votes, the Freedom Party had already crossed 5%. barrier and secured a seat in the Seimas.
“You know, that word is not that surprising. In rural districts, and it was up 5 percent. at its best. So far, I really don’t get it, “said sociologist V. Gaidys.
On election night, it was speculated that regional voters may have mistaken the Freedom Party for the Freedom and Justice Party. According to the Vilmorus boss, this was the biggest surprise. Polls showed that six parties would enter parliament, which is what happened, but polls showed a success for Libertad y Justicia, not the Freedom Party.
V. Gaidys claimed that after such success of the Freedom Party, he had read his program especially, but had no answer on what might have seduced the voter in the region.
“For LGBT marriages, for cannabis recreation, to recognize Taiwan,” it also seems that you should care about Taiwan in that town, “V. Gaidys wondered.
Regional voter who spends time on Netflix
Mindaugas Jurkynas, a professor and political scientist at Vytautas Magnus University (Vytautas Magnus University), said that the success of the Freedom Party in the regions could be determined both by voting for new forces and by the voice of young people living in the regions.
“It is not a new party, it is a separate party from the Liberal Movement. <...> But it was seen as new. Some, of course, the youth of the town voted, but some voted as a new party. Look when the results count began, first of all, also in rural areas, then the Freedom Party already had more than 5 percent. votes.
In general, these towns are inhabited by liberal-minded voters who care as much about the legalization of marijuana as they are about gay marriage. Maybe you should look at a portrait of a voter. Perhaps it is the younger generation that voted in the villages, the one that spends time on YouTube and Netflix, I don’t know. This is the hypothesis here, ”M. Jurkynas reasoned.
Traveled through Lithuania from Šilutė to Pašilaičiai
According to I. Petronytė-Urbonavičienė, the success of the Freedom Party shows that the “two Lithuanians” theory does not necessarily work at all. According to her, it cannot be said that all regions or all cities are homogeneous.
“We always have this heterogeneous society, we only have a part of the people who support the ideas of the left or the political current of the right. There is more, but that does not mean that everyone is concentrated only in the big cities or that all those who elect leftist parties are concentrated in the regions, ”said the political scientist.
The interlocutor was encouraged by the success of the Freedom Party, which shows that new political forces can emerge, whose message is sufficiently universal and can be attractive to both regional and urban voters.
According to I. Petronytė-Urbonavičienė, A. Armonaitė’s trips through Lithuania could have contributed to the outcome of the Freedom Party, as mentioned by the party president, he traveled the country twice “from Šilutė to Pašilaičiai”.
“Those things are universal enough, maybe even more in the regions than in the big city, where face-to-face meetings have an impact, but I suppose less than programmatic arrangements or what we hear in the information space.
Region specific – People are less likely to meet politicians in person. All visiting politicians show attention, they already get a plus in themselves and enter the field of choice. This does not necessarily mean that those who present themselves receive votes automatically, but it is very likely that they will enter the field of the few parties from which the voter is elected, ”explained the political scientist.
Another reason, according to I. Petronytė-Urbonavičienė, is that Lithuanians tend to trust young people in politics.
“We also see in previous research that Lithuanians give young people political confidence in advance. Not necessarily for everyone, youth does not necessarily guarantee automatic political success. But Lithuanians, especially the elderly, tend to trust the young. If young people turn out to be competent, capable, and willing to represent, that credit of confidence can be given.
And the Freedom Party candidates have exploited love in youth politics. That love in youth politics is not just an urban phenomenon, it can certainly be found in the regions. The good performance of the Freedom Party in the regions comes from the direct communication they made. On the other hand, with the support of young politicians, especially among older voters, ”said I. Petronytė-Urbonavičienė.
The news portal tv3.lt has already written that the conservatives did not repeat the mistake made four years ago and did not shoot champagne after the first round of the elections. Before the eyes: the second round of combat in single-member districts.
And if, due to the sympathies of the voters in the big cities, the conservatives can be more relaxed, in the regions they have more than one duel with the peasants, in which they handed over power to Ramūnas Karbauskis and Saulius Skvernelis four years ago.
The second round of the Seimas elections is on October 25.
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