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The old political wolves “social workers”, who realistically evaluated their chances in the 2020 Seimas elections, planned to enter the Seimas, so last year an initiative was born in parliament to reduce the electoral poster of the Seimas from 5 at 3 percent. lots and 7 to 5 percent. coalitions of parties.
The only voice was missing
At first, the rulers succeeded in passing such a law, but it was vetoed by President Gitanas Nausėda; the president pointed out that the regulation is good and that nothing needs to be changed.
The rulers stumbled when trying to reject the presidential veto. By deliberating on the issue on January 14, they got the amendment rejected by the president reconsidered.
However, after all procedures had been completed on the same day, even after the matter was urgently discussed in committee, a decisive vote was taken a single vote was missing. 70 members of the Seimas voted in favor of passing the law without amendment, although at least 71 votes were required.
Photo by Julius Kalinskas / 15min / Ramūnas Karbauskis
This decision, which was useful to the “social workers”, could not be taken because two members of the Lithuanian Green and Peasant Union (LVŽS) faction and three “social workers” did not participate in the decisive vote: Virgilijus Poderys, Darius Kaminskas Artūras Skardžius, who was still working in the “social workers” faction at the time (already participated in these elections with the Labor Party – aut.), Petras Čimbaras (later also left the LSDDP and joined to the Labor Party and participated unsuccessfully in these elections), Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius.
The social democrat Bronius Bradauskas, who had previously voted in favor of the rulers and declared in the minutes that he had been wrong, registered in a fateful vote but did not vote.
The balance of power would be different
What would the Seimas have been like after the first round of elections if the rulers had managed to reduce the electoral cartel of the Seimas?
These calculations were recently published on Facebook by Karolis Žukauskas, advisor to the mayor of the capital and former president of the Central Electoral Commission (CEC), who participated unsuccessfully in these elections with Zenonais Vaigauskas.
According to these calculations, the Lithuanian National Christian Democratic Union (TS-LKD) would now have 20 seats instead of 23, “peasants” instead of 16-14, the Labor Party (DP) 8 instead of 9, the Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) would not have suffered, would have received 8 mandates, exactly as many as now.
The Freedom Party (LP) would have 7 instead of the now won 7, and the Liberal Movement (LS) 6, as many have now won.
5 percent The Lithuanian Polish Electoral Action Union of Christian Families (LLRA-KŠS), which did not cross the barrier, would have won 4 seats, and the “social workers” – 3.
So the balance of forces between the so-called left and the right would be different at this time.
Currently, TS-LKD, LP and LS have 37 mandates, “campesinos”, LSDP, DP – 33.
If the cartel had been reduced, the LVŽS with its comrades (in addition to the current potential partners, adding “social workers” and the LLRA-KŠS) would have 37 seats, and the Conservatives with both liberals – 33.
If there was not a single member
And what would be the deployment of forces if there was no single-member vote and the entire Seimas were elected once?
15 minutes According to calculations, the quota allocation quota, that is, the number of votes required to obtain a mandate, would be 6,370.
This means that TS-LKD would have 46 mandates, LVŽS – 32, Labor Party 17, and 17 would receive LSDP. The Freedom Party would have 17 seats and the Liberal Movement 12 seats.
The so-called center-left coalition would have 75 seats and the center-right coalition 66 seats.
A.Ramonaitė: The proportional system has many advantages, but people would not agree
Perhaps a proportional electoral system would be more useful to facilitate decision-making for a less fragmented Seimas?
According to Ainė Ramonaitė, a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, many political scientists agree that the system, by electing members of the Seimas in one or more multi-member countries, would be useful in several ways. .
“It would be simpler and less problematic not only for the second round, but also because of the fact that if a member of the Seimas elected in a member dies or resigns, no new elections should be held in that member. In the end, the party system would be more predictable, “said the interlocutor.
The political scientist emphasized that the issue of representation is already more complicated due to the different concepts of representation.
“This is where the big problem arises that the Lithuanian population has a better understanding of the territorial representation that, in fact, has existed since Soviet times. And it seems to people that this must be the case and it cannot be otherwise. Party lists seem unnatural to them, and even when someone is elected from their constituency, they seem to be better representatives here. However, it depends on how we understand representation in general ”, he emphasized.
Valdas Kopūstas / 15min photo / TSPMI political scientist – Ainė Ramonaitė
A. Ramonaitė summarized that, from a political point of view, the proportional system has many advantages.
“But the main problem is that people do not like it,” added the expert.
He said that during the implementation of the Manobalsas.lt project, the parties were asked if it would be useful to move to a proportional representation system. Based on their responses, it can be seen that several major political forces support that idea. The Social Democrats, Conservatives and Liberals spoke in favor.
“It would probably be possible to gather a majority to support, especially after these elections. But if the voters do not support it, it would be like an imposition,” he said.
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