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Perhaps a greater consensus could be found for rainfall, as outdoor activities generally require rainy weather. Therefore, precipitation becomes a very important indicator of “good” and “bad” weather.
Looking for the best time for a holiday in Lithuania, we evaluated the long-term data according to two criteria: days without rainfall (maximum 0.1 mm per day) and warm days (average daily temperature of 15 ° C and above) in May – September to 18 weather stations.
Although we have already commented that the need for temperature can depend on several factors, suppose that the average daily air temperature of 15 ° C can already be considered a summer day and favorable for rest: it can cool to 10-15 ° C at night and warm to 20 ° C during the day –25 degrees or more.
Let’s start with the temperature. Based on the seven-day moving average air temperature (graph), we note that in Lithuania, on average, on June 6. the air temperature exceeds the limit of 15 ° C and remains until September 5. So, we have 3 favorable months to rest. The warmest time is from July 25. until August 15, when the average air temperature exceeds 19 ° C according to multi-year data.
The distribution of rainfall during the warm season is not as uniform as the air temperature. Various periods have the lowest rainfall: early May, late May – early June and the warmest period mentioned above – late July – early August.
LHMT KTS / Average Air Temperature Chart
The average temperature and precipitation conditions for the entire territory of Lithuania do not reflect local peculiarities, so it is worth reviewing the individual territories. The table “Number of warm days per week 1991-2020” shows the number of days with an average air temperature of 15 ° C and above in individual seasons for calendar year 2021. weeks. Such a day is considered when the temperature is fixed for at least 20 out of 30 years (most often this day is warm). It can be observed that 6 to 7 warm days a week are recorded from the end of June to the second half of August in most of Lithuania, and almost until mid-September, on the coast. Also from June 7 to 13. week in Kaunas, Lazdijai, Ukmergė and Varėna can be quite favorable in terms of temperature.
The peak of warm days during May-September. Nida (83 days), Klaipėda (72 days), Kybartai (69 days), Varėna (68 days) and Kaunas (67 days) have the highest recurrence, and the least warm days are in Laukuva (46 days), Telšiai (56 d.) and Raseiniai (57 d.).
LHMT KTS schedule / Number of cold days
Precipitation is reviewed in a similar way. The table “Number of days without rain per week 1991-2020” shows the number of days without rain (maximum 0.1 mm per day). However, it must be recognized that the period with the most favorable temperature conditions is not without precipitation. A greater number of non-rainy days is recorded in early May, June and August and in the second half of September. The highest number of days without rain during the season occurs in Šilutė (56 days), Nida (54 days) and Klaipėda (51 days), and the lowest in Raseiniai (26 days) and Utena (33 days).
LHMT KTS / Precipitation Schedule
By evaluating the top 12 days with the lowest and highest probability of precipitation, we can see similar trends discussed above.
LHMT KTS / Precipitation Schedule
This review is not a forecast, but only a statistical analysis of the climate over the past 30 years. The climate of each summer depends on the situation of that year. Most of the time, the hot and rainless weather visits Lithuania during the prevailing anticyclonic circulation, and the worst time for the holidays is during the active cyclonic circulation. The number of warm days and days without rain can vary greatly each year. Due to climate change, the most increasing indicator of these two is the number of warm days. Judging from 1961, they increased statistically significantly in almost 25 days (or 4 days in a decade). Precipitation does not show statistically significant trends, but total annual precipitation is increasing. Similar trends are likely to continue in the future. So we will have more and more warm days.
LHMT KTS / Warm Days Hours
Unfortunately, long-term forecasts do not have a high degree of reliability, so the best thing to do is to simply “adjust” the vacation time on a multi-year basis. Or pick the right outfit and mood for any weather.
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