[ad_1]
“During the last month, the number of new cases in Lithuania was 100 thousand. The population fluctuated around 250 in 14 days. Comparing the situation of February 17 with March 20, the data shows that although the situation in the Most of Lithuania is improving, about 40 percent Lithuanians live in municipalities where the situation has deteriorated.
Given the spread of the British variety, the situation is worrying because with an epidemic it is like with a spoonful of tar. When it goes into a barrel of honey, it spoils all the honey ”, he is convinced.
According to the data analyst, in autumn a similar situation could be observed in Raseiniai and Radviliškis, which later spread to the whole country.
“The essential difference is that movement between municipalities was unrestricted in the fall, and it is not very clear what the government’s plan was to handle the epidemic at that time. What is gratifying is that throughout the month, the proportion of Positive surveys have decreased in most municipalities, and the distribution has clearly improved.
Although the number of new cases has also improved, their variation has increased. The reason for this is partly seen in the grouping of municipalities according to the scenarios established by the Government of the Republic of Lithuania.
Assuming that A, B1 and B2 are “good” scenarios, C1 and C2 are “medium” and C3 and D are “bad”, 15 municipalities (with more than 1 million inhabitants) do not leave the “bad” scenario per month ” , – regretted V.Zemlys-Balevičius.
It is true that all the remaining municipalities except four, according to him, the situation is improving. However, a comparison of the indicator distributions between “bad” and “good” municipalities, according to the data analyst, shows quite clearly that where the situation was not good, it deteriorated.
“The situation is not the same in the municipalities that remained in scenarios D and C3. The municipalities of the Elektrėnai district and the city of Alytus managed to remain in scenarios C1 and C2, and the situation only got worse this week. The situation in Klaipeda has gradually improved. The worst signs of the situation in the city and district of Vilnius are the most worrying.
About a quarter of Lithuania lives there and within a month both municipalities have approached worst-case scenario D, ”warned V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
He added that it is still difficult to answer the question of why the situation is improving in some municipalities and not in others. However, additional measures must be taken in disadvantaged municipalities.
“The British version would be like a very good explanation, but unfortunately the data on its prevalence are too scattered to judge anything from it. It is clear that in those municipalities where the situation is not improving, it is necessary to take additional measures to prevent the situation from spreading to those in which it is improving.
Since the situation with the NVSC is stagnant, the only alternative to establish contacts is to extend the preventive tests. So instead of identifying cases after infection, that is, reacting after an event, it will be possible to identify cases proactively.
The preventive tests managed the situation in hospitals and the pilot project of the school showed that it also works in schools. It is necessary to expand it and apply it to all the activities that are open. Preventive tests should be a mandatory criterion for the opening of any activity.
Launching preventive tests may eventually improve the forty percent rate of unknown cases of infection from the point of death. The fact that we still cannot quantify the reasons for the spread of the epidemic in 3 months is an unsatisfactory situation ”, concluded the data analyst.
