Survey: Majority of the country’s population believes it is impossible to stop the launch of the Astravo nuclear power plant

A survey conducted in early June of this year showed 51 percent. The population of the country agrees that it is not possible to stop the commissioning of the Astravo nuclear power plant. 28 percent According to the surveyed population, Lithuania can halt the start of operation of the Astrava nuclear power plant only by acting together with such large EU countries as Germany, France, etc., 9 percent. Respondents are convinced that Lithuania can achieve this by working together with other Baltic states. Still, only 2 percent. According to the surveyed population, Lithuania could achieve the failure of the Astrava nuclear power plant. 10 percent Respondents had no opinion on the matter.

Political scientist: public evaluation is rational

Professor Tomas Janeliūnas from the Institute for International Relations and Political Science (VU TSPMI) at Vilnius University is convinced that the Baltic Research survey reflects a rather real situation, how the public knows about the construction of the nuclear power plant in Astrava. According to the political scientist VU TSPMI, said evaluation of the situation of the respondents is completely adequate.

“Society responds to what it sees in the media, what information is available to the public. I would say that this reaction is quite adequate, because, in fact, the position of the experts also dominates that, at this stage, it is practically impossible to stop the release of Astravas, regardless of the political decisions that are made. Of course, there is still no starting time and there may still be some hypothetical possibilities, but in principle, experts probably calculate the months or even weeks when the power plant will actually get up and running. I think the public also reacts to that knowledge provided by media experts and naturally, in their understanding, appreciates it, ”T. Janeliūnas told Eltai.

In evaluating the results of the survey, T. Janeliūnas also states that it is not surprising that almost three in ten surveyed residents of the country believe that Lithuania can halt the start of operation of the Astravas nuclear power plant only by acting together with the main countries from the European Union like Germany, France and others. The political scientist emphasizes that only very strong pressure from large states can delay the start-up of the Astrava nuclear power plant.

“It is, I would say, even a very sober and rational evaluation, realizing that only very high pressure from the big states could force Lukashenko to postpone the start-up of the power plant.” Of course, that pressure can only be created by the great powers, using all their resources, “said the political scientist.

“The Baltic countries’ solutions alone would probably not suffice either, as these are parallel solutions that could lead to further development of the Astrava power plant, for example the second reactor, and create additional economic costs that would slow down the development of the power station. But the commissioning of the first nuclear reactor, even with a very close position of the Baltic countries, would hardly stop, because even the purchase or non-purchase of electricity from the Belarusian side would probably not change that, “he added. .

However, the political scientist emphasizes that the common position between the Baltic States is very important. According to him, by coordinating the position of the Baltic States, it is possible to reach various agreements that are beneficial for Lithuania in the long term, related to the issue of the Astrava nuclear power plant.

Politicians are stepping up the Astrava NPP issue by mobilizing voters

T. Janeliūnas says he believes conservative efforts to constantly escalate the issue of the Astravas nuclear power plant, to picket before Belarusian electricity enters Lithuania and criticize the position of Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas in negotiations between the Baltic states are political actions. According to the political scientist, in this way the conservatives are trying to increase emotional tension and attract additional popularity to the party in the upcoming Seimas elections.

“Obviously, these are political actions that have the characteristics of an electoral campaign, but the accusations that the conservatives spread to the Lithuanian authorities, in many cases do not really count the entire factual situation detailed, they try to create such emotional tension and through such accusations emotional. ” , apparently to attract additional popularity to his party “, T. Janeliūnas expressed his opinion.

“The politicians who talk about it do not offer realistic instruments, they talk about solidarity between the Baltic countries, about some diplomatic actions within the European Union, but after all it is being done.” Unfortunately, our expectations and our wishes are not always shared by external actors: be they Latvians or representatives of the European Union, and the opposition cannot change this in any way. “Of course, they can talk about the allegations, but they have no suggestion that it will really change the situation,” he said.

However, the political scientist admits that cheap electricity is attractive to part of the Lithuanian population. Therefore, according to him, before the next elections, the Social Democrats are trying to meet the expectations of this part of the population, emphasizing that Lithuania should take the opportunity to buy cheaper electricity.

“Social Democrats also seem to feel that there is a certain proportion of voters for whom cheap electricity could be an attractive motive and perhaps even more important than security, but I don’t think that will change anything.” Social Democrats will most likely react to these moods, but they will not shape them themselves. Again, this is apparently an attempt to capture the votes or popularity of certain voters before the election knowing that there are different opinions, “said a TSPMI political scientist.

According to T. Janeliūnas, the country’s president, Gitanas Nausėda, reacts more rationally to the construction of the Astravas nuclear power plant. According to the professor, the position of the head of the country is clear and consistent.

“The president is not really attacking the ministers and the government, apparently he understands the real situation. I have no doubt that he also knows the details of the negotiations with the Latvians and Estonians and with the European Commission, and apparently his reaction is really very objective in evaluating this situation, because the President really has no political interest in making any political spectacle or political debate at the moment scandal The President, I think, is as interested as the Government, who is interested in achieving the best possible solution in terms of the interests of Lithuania ”, expressed the opinion of the political scientist.

Sociologist: citizens value the political weight of a country

Sociologist Rasa Ališauskienė, head of Baltic Research, says the survey results are logical. According to the sociologist, Lithuanians adequately assess the political weight of their country.

“Still, people appreciate the political weight of their country, they understand that this power plant is not within our jurisdiction and that Belarus is not the friendliest country for us.” Furthermore, since the facility has already been built and the Belarusian economy and all other interests are to operate the power plant. Lithuania cannot dictate the conditions, “said R. Ališauskienė.

The sociologist emphasizes that the issue of the Astrava nuclear power plant has been intensifying in the public space for a long time and that the public is understood as the desire of parties and politicians to do something. However, according to her, residents do not believe that this can be achieved only with Lithuanian forces.

“Belarus is not a country in the European Union that can be negotiated or operated with in a common way.” People probably do not have enough arguments to understand what it means to agree, “he explained.

The sociologist says that the conservatives raise the issue of the Astrava nuclear power plant as one of the electoral issues. However, the expert emphasizes that this topic is one of the conservative provisions of the program and has been developed constantly for a long time.

Conservatives, of course, use this as one of the programmatic provisions, but they cannot be said to be inconsistent. They have been talking about this for a long time, Professor Vytautas Landsbergis has been raising this problem constantly and persistently since the start of the power plant project. This is an electoral issue, but it has not come up suddenly due to the elections. Conservatives are really a consistent political force in this regard, ”said R. Ališauskienė.

Older residents are more skeptical about stopping the startup of the Astravo nuclear power plant

Respondents over 50 (64%), respondents with higher than secondary education (55%) and those with secondary education (701–1200) agree that it is generally impossible to prevent the Astrava nuclear power plant from entering functioning (51%). per month (64%), pensioners (75%) and managers (54%).

According to R. Ališauskienė, residents of the younger age group tend to be more optimistic about stopping the commissioning of the Astravas nuclear power plant, because the life experience, she says, often leads to greater skepticism. .

“The experience in this case leads to skepticism. Young people are more likely to think this is possible because they simply have not seen other similar examples. For example, compensation for the crimes of the Soviet Union against the Lithuanian nation does not tell you much, because this issue has not been much discussed in recent years. And 15-20 years ago, it was part of the electoral campaigns and there was a lot of talk about how to demand compensation from Russia, “said R. Ališauskienė.

Only 9 percent. Lithuania believes that Lithuania can act together with Latvia and Estonia (9%) to stop the start of work on the Astrava nuclear power plant; this is more than young people under 30 (23%) living in rural areas (14%), respondents with secondary education or lower education (19%) and with the lowest family income (up to 700 euros) per month (13%), workers and farmers (15%).

In turn, 28 percent. The population believes that Lithuania can halt the start of operation of the Astrava nuclear power plant only together with the main EU countries. This position is most frequently accepted by young people under 30 (41%), urban residents (31%), respondents with the highest family income (more than 1,200 euros) per month (38%), specialists and officials (37%) ).

People under the age of 50, respondents with secondary or lower education, the unemployed, and housewives are more likely to comment on this issue.

ELTA recalls that the Minister of Energy Ž. Vaičiūnas reports that a joint plan is currently being negotiated with the Baltic States to prevent electricity produced in Belarus from entering the market. Such an agreement, according to the minister, allows the “anti-astral” law to be implemented.

For his part, President G. Nausėda, commenting on the construction of the Astrava nuclear power plant in his annual speech, stated that, on the initiative of Lithuania, the European Council established a requirement to guarantee the highest international environmental standards and security for third country projects in the EU neighborhood. However, the head of state added that memoranda of local importance will no longer help in this situation.

At that time, conservatives believe that the Baltic states’ agreement on electricity trade with Belarus would open the way for the electricity trade of the Astrava nuclear power plant in these countries and would seriously violate the “anti-astravian” laws currently in force. in Lithuania. Dainius Kreivys, Žygimantas Pavilionis, a member of the Lithuanian Christian Democratic faction of the Fatherland, and Petras Auštrevičius, a member of the European Parliament and representative of the Liberal Movement, addressed Energy Minister Žygimantas Vaičiūnas, urging him to immediately withdraw from future negotiations. “The electricity flows from the Astrava nuclear power plant to the territory of Lithuania are not properly represented.

However, the leader of the Social Democrats Gintautas Paluckas says that by organizing pickets, urging the Baltic states not to buy Belarusian electricity, conservatives are stirring up hysteria over the Astrava nuclear power plant, manipulating people, fragmenting society and mobilizing to the electorate before the elections. According to Paluck, the worst thing is that the conservatives, focusing on their political objectives, prevent the country from buying cheaper electricity.

From 5 to 8 June 2020, the Lithuanian-British public opinion and market research joint venture Baltijos tyrimai conducted a representative survey of the Lithuanian population. 539 Lithuanian residents (over 18 years old) were interviewed throughout Lithuania. The survey results reflect the opinion of the Lithuanian population aged 18 years and over by gender, age and type of settlement. The survey data was weighted to reflect the opinion of the Lithuanian population aged 18 years and over. The error of the results for a sample of this size should not exceed 4.4 percentage points with a 95% confidence interval. Survey method: Online survey (CAWI).