Statistics send alarming signals: Expert suggests not making hasty decisions for at least a week

Vaidotas Zemlys-Balevičius, a data scientist at Euromonitor International and a member of the Prime Minister’s Advisory Council, made up of the Prime Minister, said that while the statistics send alarming signals, it would be worth waiting another week to look at the morbidity statistics and then decide what action to take.

“The data shows that the epidemic has receded more rapidly in the past, now it is slowing down. If we look at the data from the counties, then we have four counties in Lithuania, where the epidemic even started to increase last week. This is the data . The data tells us that it is slowing down. As a result, it slows down, unfortunately, the data is still not that good to be able to tell, “said the interlocutor.

According to the researcher, according to yesterday’s data, the number of diseases began to increase in the counties of Vilnius, Alytus, Marijampolė and Utena.

The reasons are not clear

The reasons why the number of new coronavirus infections began to rise, as claimed by V. Zemlys-Balevičius, are still unclear, it is rather speculation and speculation.

“There are two options. One option that started additional tests is prophylaxis. That would be good news here, as it means that we have started testing more and detecting more. That is the more we catch, that means that next week all those catches will simply not generate new ones and we will reduce the epidemic again (…).

The bad option is that I don’t see any significant test increase in the data. The level of testing is similar, perhaps only in Vilnius it was possible to notice an increase in mobile testing for a couple of days. I have not seen this in other municipalities. Another worrying thing is that the proportion of positive investigations has begun to increase, “said the researcher.

That, he said, is a bad sign that the epidemic has returned. This can be attributed to a variety of things.

“Much of the communication now is about the restrictions being bad, ineffective, and so on. This will probably have an effect. People think that it is really ineffective, that it is bad and that it does not comply (…) It is better to watch what is happening here for another week and then make decisions. Having the data for a couple of days, there is no need to rush “, – assured V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

A member of the Independent Expert Advisory Council did not rule out that the decline in testing was due to the fact that a significant number of doctors had already been vaccinated against the coronavirus and, therefore, prophylactic tests were no longer performed. However, he said, the downside is that the volume of testing has decreased not only in the medical field.

“You can clearly see a clear drop in hospital tests, it has decreased significantly. But, unfortunately, the evidence for other activities decreased at the same time. We cannot explain this drop in testing just by the drop in physicians, because all testing has absolutely decreased (…) testing can be reduced when the proportion of positive tests is less than 4%, ”he said.

Liberalization of restrictions should not yet enter into force

When asked if the quarantine restrictions released last week could have contributed to the slowdown in the pandemic withdrawal, the researcher was critical.

“The relaxation of the restrictions should theoretically not be visible for a week, because it is a week – an incubation period: people come, they get sick and it should be visible after a week, because the incubation period is seven days.” . The other thing is that the restrictions are related to the moods of the people and the riots, that doubt about the usefulness of the restrictions, was expressed earlier. You can guess, I can’t tell from the data that the general information contributed in any way and people started to consider those restrictions more freely, ”explained V. Zemlys-Balevičius.

The problem with all restrictions, according to V. Zemlio-Balevičius, is that 10-20 percent is enough. people who do not comply and the epidemic returns.

“The information war has its consequences,” said the scientist.

He shared speculation about what changes to the quarantine regime can be expected this week.

“We can ease the requirement that masks be worn outdoors in cities, because now it is possible not to wear masks if there is nothing around you within 20 meters and not in cities. That can be simplified, ”said the researcher.

According to him, it can be expected that masks will no longer be worn in open areas if a safe distance of two meters can be maintained. This restriction will be discussed in the Cabinet of Ministers.

How to avoid the third wave?

Some Central European countries are already reporting the third wave of the virus, how to avoid it for Lithuania and what mistakes not to make? According to V. Zemlio-Balevičius, the main risk is posed by premature release from the quarantine regime.

“I don’t think there are any impressive mistakes here. It is the same rake we got on. It is too early to publish when the epidemic rate is still high enough. Let’s take a look at the countries that are doing well, the countries that are doing well have a zero virus policy, ”he said.

V. Zemlys-Balevičius presented a positive case from New Zealand, when the country closes under strict quarantine with only a few new cases of coronavirus.

“The strategy chosen in Europe is that we cannot detect these cases, we cannot do it strictly, so we tolerate a certain level of virus that is normal. If you take that level too high, for example, as we do now in Lithuania or other European countries, you can loosen those restrictions and go back to the heights with which you have to re-impose restrictions: you have a third wave.

What worsens the situation that autumn is the British variety that is spreading the most, and then it turns out that the British variety makes the strategy of maintaining zero cases the only one that can be applied, ”explained the scientist.