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The eastern Mediterranean is becoming an increasingly crowded area: Asylum seekers travel from Libya to Europe, weapons and mercenaries are moving in the opposite direction, and the Russian navy operates in the Syrian port of Tartus.
Thus, when Turkey sent its seismic survey vessel into waters that Greece claims are also under its jurisdiction, and Turkish warships eventually appeared, another dangerous element added to the tense situation, Time writes.
Last week, German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas warned: “Any little spark can cause disaster.”
AFP / Scanpix photo / Ships of the Greek Navy
This has prompted Turkey to announce new military exercises to be held off the northern coast of Cyprus, while Greece is hosting naval exercises with France, Cyprus and Italy.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has promised “not to make concessions about what belongs to us,” announced Greece expanding the maritime area around its non-conflict islands. This only increases the tension even more.
Why has the conflict escalated now?
At first glance, this conflict appears to have been caused by energy. Turkey and Greece have rights to the same gas-rich water areas.
Greece claims that each of its several thousand islands is entitled to its own continental shelf with exclusive drilling rights. The EU supports Greece’s position, with sanctions imposed on Turkey last July for investigations along the northern coast of Cyprus. The Community has repeatedly warned Turkey not to pursue investigations.
However, Turkey claims that a misinterpretation of international law encroaches on its exclusive economic zone. In recent months, both Turkey and Greece have sought to strengthen land claims by establishing exclusive economic zones with Libya and Egypt, Time reports.
Reuters / Scanpix photo / Fence dividing Cyprus into Greek and Turkish parts
The unresolved status of Cyprus plays an important role in this conflict. Turkey considers any energy treaty signed by Cyprus illegal, unless it includes the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Greece considers Turkey’s natural gas exploration near Cyprus illegal, Time reports.
What makes the situation worse?
One of the problems is the flow of migrants from the Middle East to Europe. In Turkey, according to the 2016 agreement with the EU, there are almost 4 million. migrants and refugees.
In February, RTErdogan threatened to “open the doors” and allow tens of thousands of asylum seekers to enter Greece. Athens’ tough response, including violence against asylum seekers, has been criticized by human rights activists. For its part, the EU has accused Turkey of using immigrants in the negotiations.
VIDEO: RTErdogan stated that Turkey has all the rights to the surrounding seas and will take all measures to achieve them.
According to Time, tensions escalated further in July, when St. The Cathedral of Wisdom was turned into a mosque.
This strategy of the Turkish government is strongly supported by the main opposition party, which has expressed its support for the gas program. Securing energy resources in a region that is becoming increasingly isolated in Turkey is helping to attract public support.
“Erdogan’s adventures in the eastern Mediterranean are likely to have more support than any of his other regional adventures,” Emile Hokayem, a Middle East expert, told Time.
What other countries participated?
Last November, Turkey signed a maritime agreement with the Libyan government, backed by the United Nations (UN). The agreement would allow Turkey to expand its drilling in the eastern Mediterranean.
An unrecognized agreement between Washington and the EU allowed Turkey to launch a military intervention in the Libyan civil war against General Khalifa Haftar’s forces, backed by Russia. As in northwestern Syria, Russia and Turkey have become the major powers on the Libyan battlefield.
In Libya, Kh. Haftar is supported by France, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt, these countries have supported the Libyan national army, all of which are involved in the conflict over the Mediterranean, Time reports.
“Scanpix” / AP nuotr./Emmanuelis Macronas
French President Emmanuel Macron, who called Turkey’s intervention in Libya “criminal,” sent two Rafale fighters and a frigate in support of Greece in early June. France, like Greece and Cyprus, has a tough stance on Turkey compared to EU members like Germany, Spain and Italy.
In August, Egypt signed an agreement with Greece on a common maritime economic zone, under which Turkey’s claims are “invalid and empty”. Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has threatened to carry out a military intervention in Libya against Turkey.
The United Arab Emirates, which deployed military aircraft to Libya, sent four F16 fighter jets to Crete in August to participate in an exercise with the Greek army.
Will the tension turn to violence?
This is not very likely, writes Time. A war between two NATO members in the Mediterranean would be an unmanageable catastrophe, with both sides expressing their willingness to negotiate. However, balancing at the dangerous threshold increases the probability of an accidental escalation.
“We urge colleagues to be smarter and avoid mistakes that will lead to collapse. Those who want to face us by paying their price, please. If they don’t want to, they should get out of our way,” RTErdogan said.
As Turkey’s prospects of becoming a member of the EU diminish, it becomes increasingly difficult for peacekeeping forces in Ankara to underscore the importance of engagement, says Nigar Goksel of the International Crisis Group (ICG).
“The EU should not offer carrots to Turkey to defeat nationalist sentiments.” I think Ankara’s strategists sincerely want negotiations, but they don’t think they can get them until they cause confusion, “he said.
What is the position of Lithuania?
Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius says that in addition to tensions with Greece in the Mediterranean, Ankara’s close rapprochement with Russia is worrying.
“There are many aspects that are worrying. And the context of NATO, the purchase of weapons from Russia, the rapprochement with Russia. There are many things that we would not like to see ”, L. Linkevičius quotes BNS.
“Turkey, on the other hand, is a member of NATO, it is home to 4 million refugees, an extremely important factor not so much for Lithuania directly, but for all of Europe,” he emphasized.
According to the minister, Lithuania has a similar view on the Turkey issue as Germany: a strategic dialogue with Ankara should take place, writes BNS.
“We are of the same opinion as Germany that, of course, we have to be clear about what is wrong, but the strategic dialogue with Turkey must and must not make the situation worse, lest we encourage, say, even more radical actions in the region. “, said L. Linkevičius.
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