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“On December 3, Sviatlana Cichanouskaya declared that she was ready to assume the leadership of Belarus during the transition period. Aliaksandr Dabravolski, advisor to Sviatlan Cichanouskaya, presented possible scenarios for the development of the situation in Belarus and Cichanouskaya’s own involvement in them, “the Belarusian opposition leader’s website said in a statement on Thursday.
A. Dabravolskis pointed out that the first scenario could be the holding of new elections after the negotiations. There are two possible reasons for starting such negotiations: the President of Belarus, Aliaksandr Lukashenko, makes the decision himself, or “a group of people representing the interests of the previous government decides to join the negotiations.” In both cases, “a negotiating team appointed by Sviatlan Cichanouskaya is [baltarusių opozicijos] Coordinating Council “.
The second scenario, according to A. Dabravolskis, would be a new election after the vacancy of the presidency – “after the former president leaves the country, resigns or is arrested.”
The third option could be “hardening of the regime, massive repression, declaration of a state of emergency or war.” According to A. Dabravolskis, in such a case “Lukashenko remains in power for a time, but this period is shortened by his illegality and lack of resources for the regime to exist.” The stage then becomes “unstable, tending to become a first or second stage.”
According to the fourth scenario, “Lukashenko is trying to waste time on promises of constitutional reform, hoping that the protests will subside.”
“A Belarusian People’s Assembly is being held (which is an unconstitutional institution). At the meeting a draft amendment to the constitution is adopted (probably without specific content and without specific deadlines for its implementation). Despite the possible delay in time, Lukashenko remains illegal in this case, he will not be able to expect public support, “said Dabravolski.
In his opinion, the announcement of new presidential elections in the spring of 2021 could alleviate the situation and suppress the protests, but “Lukashenko has hardly any relation to that.”
Sviatlana Cichanouskaja
“It is very difficult to believe that we will be able to keep power in our hands until spring 2021. The probability of survival until fall is close to zero,” said S. Cichanouskaya’s adviser.
As another scenario, A. Dabravolski pointed to the possibility of introducing Russian soldiers and policemen into Belarus, with or without incorporation. According to the adviser, “Russia will have the resources to maintain the regime for quite some time, but sanctions, a heavy burden on the economy and internal unrest will destabilize the situation in Russia.”
In the second scenario, Lukashenko could be overthrown or lose royal power. This can lead to the disintegration of power structures and mass protests. “At that time, public sentiment will determine the massive anti-Russian movement. Relations with Russia will be desperately ruined,” predicted A. Dabravolski.
The opposition calls the last possible scenario a “military nomenclature or coup, the removal of Lukashenko from power.”
“The analysis of the previous scenarios shows that only two of them are stable and can have stable consequences. These are the first and second scenarios. The result of its implementation is the resolution of the main contradiction (people no longer trust Lukashenko and demand his retirement, but Lukashenko refuses to leave), “summarized A. Dabravolskis.
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