Shebok: Chinese mask diplomacy is ineffective if it does not benefit countries’ political elites

Philip Shebok is a researcher at the Association for International Affairs, a non-governmental research center in Prague, and project manager for the consortium of Chinese Observers in Central and Eastern Europe.

“A global pandemic can weaken China, but the Communist Party will strengthen at the national level,” he said. 15 minutes predicted by F. Shebok.

International Affairs Association Photo / Philip Shebok

Mask diplomacy is not necessarily effective

– How effective is China’s mask diplomacy in Europe?

– It is difficult to talk about mask diplomacy in Europe in general, we have to look at each country separately.

If the political environment in the country towards China is good and receptive, such diplomacy can be effective. In the Czech Republic, for example, it is being used by national politicians: the president, who has always been very supportive, as well as the Social Democratic Party, who has always been a great supporter of Beijing. These actors are now taking the opportunity to demonstrate that China is helping and that its policies are correct.

In Serbia, President Vučičius has made relations with China one of the pillars of his foreign policy to demonstrate that Serbia has very important friends and uses (relations with China – ed.) As a lever in negotiations with the European Union (EU ).

Chinese propaganda and mask diplomacy can only be effective if accepted by the local political elite. Because the political elite has the opportunity to create and shape a narrative for the local population. It is not the case that China can directly shape its image in those countries, it is generally done through intermediaries.

– Can the impending economic crisis make Europe more dependent on China? Does this also apply to Central and Eastern European countries?

– Eastern and central European countries have never been very dependent on China, where Beijing’s economic presence is limited. In 2012, with the launch of the 16 + 1 format (now the 17 + 1 – ed. Format), high expectations arose that did not materialize. Therefore, it is probably not possible to talk about addiction.

If we want to talk about addiction, we should talk about Germany. Because this country has received a lot of Chinese investment and maintains long-term ties in trade, supply chains.

However, even in such countries, it is believed that economic relations with China should be reconsidered, especially with regard to the production of medical devices. While we are seeing signs that there will be a rethink of economic relations with China, it is difficult to say whether this will happen, because things are changing very fast.

The United States appears to have fully separated from China, and the European Union is still debating this.

Undeserved criticism of the community?

– Is China’s pressure on the EU to ease the misinformation report something new that emerged during the pandemic, or has such an effort been in the past?

– There is always pressure from China to soften criticism. While the final version of the project is said to have been softer, it was actually a harsh criticism of China, naming what China is doing. In fact, the EU is becoming more categorical towards China.

Of course, this is a difficult issue, because the EU’s position depends on the Member States, and their views on China often differ. It is difficult for the EU to have a very strong position without the support of the Member States. However, the EU was a pretty tough player, for example, when it completed the investment verification mechanism last year.

– What future for the 17 + 1 format after the pandemic? Can it be a powerful tool to influence expansion?

– As I said, the format was expected to become the basis of China’s influence in the EU. However, this has not become a reality, China’s economic presence in these countries remains very limited.

China will try to use the format. Furthermore, relations with the countries of Central and Eastern Europe have content, for example, China has provided medical facilities, shared experiences, so perhaps China will try to show this in a positive way.

However, I do not expect China to become a major player, especially in the economy.

– In one of the reports from your center, you write about the threat of growing sinophobia, where criticism of the Chinese Communist Party is inseparable from the Chinese people. Could this be due to a pandemic in Eastern and Central Europe?

– If we talk about the Chinese and Asians in general, their communities in these countries are not large, so it is not very relevant. However, we have heard rhetoric from President Trump about the ‘Chinese virus’, and many people have also started using the term. There are also stereotypes about the Chinese eating very strange things.

Overall, this can worsen China’s image in the eyes of many people. However, it is still difficult to say what the exact impact of the pandemic will be.

Africa’s image has been damaged

– What can China gain from a pandemic outside Europe?

– In Africa, the image of China has been affected by the pandemic, as officials from Guangzhou province have largely discriminated against Africans: many people have been evicted from their homes and had to sleep on the streets. African countries have reacted strongly to this.

In Asia, like Japan, there is a growing awareness that China’s economic dependence also has its downsides. It is very difficult to speak in general terms, but I think the impact in China will be more negative than positive in the long term.

– The White House recently accused China of artificially creating a coronavirus, but provides no evidence. How will this affect China’s image and attempts to blame the response to the coronavirus outbreak?

– Such statements by Donald Trump, which are not based on evidence, are quite dangerous. The United States wants China to take responsibility, but it is difficult to do so when it comes to spreading conspiracy theories.

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China may say, “Look, everyone is trying to tarnish our image, spreading conspiracy theories.” So, in the end, it can help China blame it.

AFP / Scanpix photo / Donald Short at the protective mask factory

– Can a pandemic and its response weaken the Communist Party within China?

Globally, a pandemic can weaken China, but the Communist Party will strengthen internally. We have seen that at the start of the pandemic, the Chinese government was widely criticized internally for actions such as silencing doctors who wanted to warn of the danger. As a result, sentiment towards the Communist Party in the country was very negative.

But later, the Chinese government reacted quickly and decisively, and now the number of infections and deaths in other countries is higher than in China. Of course, it is difficult to trust Chinese numbers. Therefore, citizens feel that their government is competent enough, which will improve the position of the Communist Party.

And now Chinese propaganda declares that the virus in general may have originated not in China but in the United States. Attempts are being made to demonstrate that this was not even a problem for China, but China dealt with it competently.