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IPMG Analysts – University of Gothenburg (Sweden) dr. Jonas Bačelis, Professor at the Santara Laimonas Griškevičius Clinics, Physician at Cambridge University Hospital (UK) Tumas Beinortas and dr. Aistis Šimatis (Government Office of the Republic of Lithuania): compared the first 48 weeks of 2020 (both public data are currently provided by Statistics Lithuania) and the same weeks of the previous twenty years (FIG. No. 1). The last week, the 48th, begins on November 23. and ends on November 29.
Analysts noted that the demographic composition of the population varied from year to year, as did annual non-demographic mortality. As a result of these adapted methods, all the data for the previous 20 years has become comparable with that of 2020.
From the previous twenty years (2000 to 2019), the number of deaths most likely to be calculated in each calendar week was calculated.
Photo IMPG / Image No 1. 2020 comparison of total number of deaths in Lithuania (regardless of cause of death) with previous years
Deaths in the last seven weeks surplus
As of October 2020, for at least seven weeks, with a growing surplus of deaths coinciding with the recent wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Lithuania (FIG. No. 2).
According to analysts, 6,100 deaths were observed in Lithuania in week 42-48, or even 1,200 more than at the usual time, when 4,900 deaths were expected during the same period. This phenomenon is especially pronounced in the older group (80+), but it is already observed in the group of 50 years or more. According to official figures, around 350 people have died from COVID-19 during this period, leaving the 850 remaining invisible victims of this pandemic (FIG. No. 3).
Photo IMPG / Image No. 2. The statistics on cases and deaths confirmed by Covid-19 are officially published (source: Lithuania Statistics). Weekly fluctuations were mitigated using a moving average.
Photo IMPG / Image No. 3. Surplus deaths are divided into two parts: official surplus deaths from COVID-19 are marked in bold; other excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic stand out more clearly
What can cause excess deaths during a pandemic?
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Direct COVID-19-19 donations. Deaths in undiagnosed COVID-19 patients without seeking or receiving assistance.
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Scheduled attendance postponed. COVID-19 patients receive emergency care in hospitals for respiratory failure. To this end, all hospital emergency departments are being closed and reorganized. Reorganization of the intensive care and resuscitation unit to provide care for COVID-19 patients delaying postoperative surgery and other scheduled treatments (for example, cancer chemotherapy), which may require treatment in intensive care units.
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Insufficient number of medical staff to provide planned services. Doctors are transferred to the COVID-19 ward and fall ill with COVID-19 and must isolate themselves. As a result, the availability of scheduled services to patients is further hampered.
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Patients delay or avoid seeking emergency care. Outbreaks of COVID-19 infection are seen in many institutions. Fearing infection, patients may seek emergency care late, increasing the risk of complications and death.
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COVID-19 complicates other chronic diseases. Even recovery from COVID-19 can have consequences: problems with breathing, heart, kidney or other systems. The total deterioration of comorbidities increases the probability of death.
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Patients avoid participating in prevention programs. Patients may delay participation in cancer or cardiovascular disease prevention programs for fear of infection or because access to doctors has become more difficult, increasing the risk of being diagnosed at a later stage.
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Possibly stress and anxiety-related deaths, caused by loneliness, isolation.
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A possible partial explanation may also be suicide (for example, due to the loss of a job or a loved one).
However, according to analysts, deaths from certain causes are also possible decrease During the COVID-19 pandemic. With the introduction of quarantine measures by states and restrictions on the movement of people, the number of deaths from certain causes, such as traffic accidents and the spread of some other infections (such as influenza), is likely to decrease.
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