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According to them, the country is beginning to be dominated by uncontrolled outbreaks of infections, so that the spread of the virus may exceed pessimistic forecasts, the media said.
After modeling the possible cases, the researchers note that if the number of new infections increases by 5.8 percent every day. (as in September) and 8 percent. all those infected would be seriously ill and in need of hospitalization, and quarantine measures should be strengthened after Late.
Only in this way will it be possible to reduce the workload of medical institutions and ensure that patients with COVID-19 do not occupy more than the thousand hospital beds currently planned throughout the country. In the pessimistic scenario, this number of beds would be completely full already in the second half of November.
If 5 percent were hospitalized. For all those infected, quarantine measures must be introduced into the country on November 12.
Although more and more preventive measures are being introduced in Lithuania, there is a high probability that the spread of the infection will reach the level of the Czech Republic, where about 7% is detected daily. more new infections. In this case, the number of hospital beds for COVID-19 patients may be overcrowded earlier than planned.
The researchers note that today in hospitals in large cities, COVID-19 provides only 400 beds for patients, which can be filled earlier than in regions. Therefore, it is especially important to provide extra beds today, to reduce the social contacts of the population, to further establish contacts of the sick, if necessary, to self-isolate. It is also important to be responsible, use personal protective equipment and respect hygiene and distance.
If the prevailing trends of the epidemic had prevailed in Lithuania in early October, when the number of new infections was increasing by 3% every day, and hospitalized patients would have increased by 8%. Of all those infected, quarantine measures would be necessary at a later date, around December 15. If only 5% were hospitalized. Of all those infected, the quarantine would be necessary just before the New Year, on December 31.
Scientists warn that it is not yet possible to accurately predict the future course of the pandemic in Lithuania; So far, there are no models that can reliably predict the course of the pandemic in a week or later. According to them, much in the country will also depend on the decisions of the government, as well as the level of consciousness and self-protection of the population.
Ongoing simulations can help predict when it would be appropriate to introduce quarantine measures and avoid overloading the healthcare system.
Your doctor will tell you how to put on the mask:
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