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Assessing possible changes in international politics after the US presidential elections, researcher from Vytautas Magnus University (VMU) and the Lithuanian Military Academy (LKA), Dr. Gerda Jakštaitė says that after becoming President Biden, changes are possible in America’s defense strategy, as well as in the field of arms control.
However, the political scientist stresses that, in any case, Europe should not relax, it is expected to continue to make a significant financial contribution to defense.
“The prognosis is ungrateful, but it would appear that in its defense policy, the United States would return to the situation that existed during Obama’s second term, something similar, given the ideas that Biden has declared so far,” Eltai said. Jakštaitė.
According to the expert, Democrats and Republicans have different views on defense spending policy and the importance of NATO allies.
“In Biden’s case, there is a different approach from NATO. During the brief presidency, there certainly was a dynamic in the defense policy of the United States in terms of NATO, that dynamic came from the person of the president, because Congress he had those traditional attitudes. Biden emphasizes those traditional postulates: that the military alliance is very important, that there are very important allies in US foreign policy, “said the VMU and LKA researcher.
G. Jakštaitė recalled D. Trumpas’s criticism of NATO allies for failing to fulfill their defense obligations. This, he said, was Trump’s main argument in the NATO defense policy talks.
“The importance of the Allies has taken a backseat to traditional US politics. Meanwhile, Biden emphasizes the importance of the Allies,” said the expert.
Europe should not relax
However, G. Jakštaitė emphasized that Europe, if J. Biden wins the US presidential election, should not relax.
“Still, it would be expected that Europeans and EU countries would have appropriate defense spending and appropriate contributions to NATO, that European countries themselves should take greater responsibility.” He will probably still be the one who wins the elections in the United States, ”emphasized G. Jakštaitė.
According to her, there should be no sign of equality between the policies of Biden and Obama.
“There should be no signs of equality between the ideas of Biden and Obama. (…) What remains to be asked is that it is not entirely clear what the provisions of Biden would be if any military intervention or conflict management by means were required. There are a number of questions about such measures, “the expert told Eltai.
Uncertainties remain in Biden’s policy
G. Jakštaitė also noted that J. Biden has changed his mind on some issues, for example, regarding the United States’ participation in events in Afghanistan, Iraq. Therefore, according to the political scientist, uncertainties remain about Biden’s views on some issues.
“There were cases where he supported the interventions, then he said that his opinion had changed after so many years. These remain big questions here, not very clear. So, consequently, we can’t put that equals sign much, “said G. Jakštaitė.
He also noted that Biden’s decisions could still be influenced by his nominee for Vice President Kamala Harris.
“She has made it clear that she is in favor of limiting defense spending, by limiting the US military presence abroad. Therefore, the question is what would be the end result of her ideas,” said G. Jakštaitė.
Biden is likely to initiate gun control changes
Speaking of the US dialogue with Russia, the expert described them as always dynamic. However, G. Jakštaitė said that J. Biden would likely initiate changes in the field of arms trade and control, renew or negotiate arms control agreements.
“What can be seen in the future if Biden becomes president are probably initiatives in the field of arms control. (…) As far as Russia is concerned, I would not dare to say that we will see a strong Russian participation in the future, because those red borders have really been crossed and far enough, but some of those pragmatic steps in arms control probably are ”, emphasized G. Jakštaitė.
The US presidential elections will be held on November 3, ELTA recalls. In public opinion polls, Biden is ahead of Trump.
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