Scientific forecast: even if we introduce strict measures, the number of deaths will increase



[ad_1]

Professor Saulius Čaplinskas in the program Delphi Day says that it is very important to emphasize people’s behavior. If some rule is not acceptable to the public, then it is not followed, which greatly worsens the situation.

“I would say that there is probably no other way than to impose additional restrictions, and whether we can handle it or at least stop it will probably depend on whether people understand who needs it. If a measure is proposed that affects us all, then for every citizen to do so. accept, you need to understand who needs it ”, commented the teacher at the beginning of the exhibition.

The curve of death will grow

As in the program Delphi Day said data scientist Vaidotas Žemlys-Balevičius, there are likely only more deaths.

“If we don’t take action, those predictions are totally plausible. As for deaths, there will only be many. Even if we introduce strict measures, the number of deaths will continue to rise. Let’s look at the practice in other countries: in England, for example, during the first quarantine, when strict measures were introduced, the number of cases immediately decreased and the number of deaths peaked after two weeks. I do not see any reason why we should be different, “said the interlocutor.

Scientific forecast: even if we introduce strict measures, the number of deaths will increase

© DELFI / Domantas Pipas

When asked why many recommendations or measures do not work, Professor S. Čaplinskas assured that the most important reason for such a situation is the behavior of people.

“We just realized that society had forgotten that communicable diseases existed. They really didn’t go anywhere. You must remember your laws of propagation. On the one hand, diseases are transmitted by human behavior and this is constantly talked about. I’ll repeat: only measures that people support will work. Another thing: it depends on the biology of the virus. Unfortunately, now we find ourselves in a situation like this: in December, the activity of the coronavirus begins to grow and the spread begins to accelerate. And it reaches its peak only in January, ”says S. Čaplinskas.

Lack of leadership

According to him, we have not yet learned to analyze and learn from the mistakes made during the first quarantine.

“On the one hand, maybe society is already partially tired, we have this so-called pandemic fatigue. On the other hand, probably until now there has been a fear of analyzing the lessons learned and the mistakes made. If we look back and see mistakes, maybe we can achieve some results by looking ahead, but until we start to analyze why people behave in one way or another, those curves will only grow upwards, ”says S. Čaplinskas.

The data researcher highlighted another missed opportunity in managing the coronavirus situation. According to him, we do not demonstrate leadership. He said it when talking about the president and coming and going to the authorities.

Scientific forecast: even if we introduce strict measures, the number of deaths will increase

© DELFI / Andrius Ufartas

“Sunday was a great opportunity to show that all the leaders of the state are working together – the president, the incoming and outgoing government who care, and that is a sign that the situation is bad, and this opportunity has been lost and we have what we have, “he says. professor.

Doesn’t understand requirement to park every fifth spot

When asked what S. Čaplinskas thinks about the new measures and what impact all this may have on the situation, the interlocutor emphasized that he did not fully understand the new requirement to park cars in every fifth place.

“I do not understand why it is necessary to park cars in every fifth parking space, what does this have in common? I will just repeat that if people do not understand who needs such measures, they will not follow them.

I agree that shared leadership is necessary, but first it is necessary to explain why. If a person does not understand, it is difficult to expect him to act accordingly, ”says the teacher.

New recommendations

We remind you that it is recommended not to carry out promotions, sales, discount hours, which increase the flow of customers, increase the number of cash registers in operation, avoid more than 5 people in queue, and establish a longer working day in all shops, supermarkets , markets and other public points of sale and service points. , shops to visit for a family person.

It is forbidden to rent, sublet or lend premises for the provision of accommodation services for the organization of private events, celebrations or other gatherings.

Preschool, preschool and primary education will continue directly, but it is recommended that preschool and preschool educational institutions be attended only by children whose parents do not have the opportunity to work remotely.

Education in schools according to the primary and secondary education programs is carried out at a distance, except for pupils educated in special schools and special classes in general education schools.

Non-formal education for children is provided at a distance or suspended, as is non-formal adult education, with the exception of practical training in aviation, navigation and driving, as well as foreign language proficiency assessment examinations for people entering foreign higher education institutions.

Schools are encouraged to take student vacations early and post them from December 14 to January 3.

The duration of the quarantine has been extended until December 31, at 24:00, the ruling will take effect from Wednesday.

It is strictly forbidden to use the information published by DELFI on other websites, in the media or elsewhere, or to distribute our material in any way without consent, and if consent has been obtained, it is necessary to cite DELFI as the source.



[ad_2]