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And in this place, he supports the passport of opportunities, but the expert believes that more measures should be considered to encourage people to get vaccinated.
“Vaccination is effective, safe and that is our exit strategy. The more people get vaccinated, the better for us. And sadly, the rate of vaccination is slowing, and in about five comparative weeks they are now at a low.
Now we have about five thousand people a day. We vaccinate about 1% of people a week, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius on the” Delfi rytas “program.
The expert calculated that if one percent of the Lithuanian population gets vaccinated per day, let’s say 80 percent. we will reach all the towns in twenty weeks.
“Twenty weeks is about Christmas. If we want to welcome Christmas with ease, it would be good to be prepared and vaccinate more,” said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
Based on the numbers, we are chasing in October of last year.
According to the interlocutor of the program, according to the current morbidity that we are already pursuing in October last year.
“Now we have six hundred figures a week. It should be remembered that last year there was a slowdown right at the beginning of September, and then it started to grow, and then there was that exponential phase,” recalled V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
According to the expert, that exponential phase has now passed.
“We just realized that there were enough cases to slow that growth. Now the key question is, what will happen when the weather cools? (…) And how long will the available vaccination stop (the process)? ”Said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
According to the expert, in the worst case scenario, the vaccines will not be enough, and there will be a new outbreak of the disease again, “as people return to the premises, contacts increase, and we will have a huge growth of unvaccinated people. “. . “
In a best scenario, the level of vaccination and relapse will stop the pandemic.
“We have many patients, but let’s see how sick we get: we vaccinate – five thousand a day; we are sick, five to six hundred people.
Even if we actually get sick three times more, we make the population acquire immunity much more difficult than getting sick. And if we acquire immunity naturally, we have all the negative effects: congested hospitals, etc. “, said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
In hospitals – silence before the storm
More and more people are being admitted to hospitals due to the fighting.
“Hospitalization, if we look at it for weeks, is growing with success. It is gratifying that the number of intensive care has stopped growing, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The data analyst regretted that, in terms of hospitalization figures, the data had been delayed, making it difficult to predict how the situation would develop further.
“We have to look at the age of the patients that are there. If you lie in younger patients, it means that they will get sick more easily. (…) It is also important to observe how long a person is in the hospital. Let’s say that young people can get sick more easily, but it can take longer to cure them, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
So far, the data analyst was not expected to be particularly satisfied that the situation is improving in terms of the number of occupied hospital beds.
“If we reach those two thousand (occupied) beds, it means that services are delayed again. We want to avoid that and, unfortunately, we do not have encouraging insights from the data (…). We just have to say that there is silence before the storm and that there may be an explosion, “said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
If there were no vaccines, we should already be in quarantine
The data analyst says to be grateful for the vaccination, which has significantly reduced the likelihood of a strict quarantine.
“If we didn’t have it, we would have to quarantine it now, because according to the numbers, the municipalities are in the black zones. Vaccination protects us from this. If we don’t want it to be quarantined, we must be careful. One of the precautions is vaccination and the other is the protection of children in schools, ”said V. Zemlys-Balevičius.
The data analysis performed by V. Zemlis-Balevičius in graphical form is available here.
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