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On October 13, Sviatlana Cichanouskaya, winner of the presidential elections in Belarus, announced an “ultimatum of the people” to Lukashenko: resign, end violence against protesters and release political prisoners.
According to the opposition, if these requirements are not met, “the whole country will take to the streets with a popular ultimatum.”
Reuters / Photo by Scanpix / Retired protesters in Moscow
“And on October 26, a nationwide strike of all companies will begin, the blockade of all roads will be stopped and commerce in state stores will stop,” said Ms. Cichanouskaya.
Jeuhen Preiherman, founder and director of the Minsk Dialogue research center, does not believe that issuing the ultimatum is an effective way to pressure Lukashenko.
“Of course, we should wait a couple more days, maybe Cichanouskaya’s team has surprises, at least that’s what he mentioned in the press conference. However, based on the information available, I don’t think there is a possibility that the ultimatum is successful. I think it could lead to an escalation of violence. ” 15 minutes Preiherman said.
Arsenas Sivickis, director of the Center for Strategic Studies and Foreign Policy, also doubts the effectiveness of the ultimatum.
“However, I believe that the deterioration of the socio-economic situation in the country will increase the pressure on the government. This will broaden the social base of the protest movement, which is currently quite limited: the middle class, the metropolitan residents.
The economic crisis, forecast for the end of this year or the beginning of next, is a great challenge for the government, which could make Cichanouskaya’s ultimatum a reality and provoke new waves of protests. ” 15 minutes said the analyst.
Kaciaryna Šmacina, an analyst at the Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies, believes that the announcement of the ultimatum to Lukashenko is a risky step. It is true that S. Cichanouskaya’s advisers analyze the situation in the country by establishing contacts with activists, leaders of strike committees.
K. Schmacina assures that, in part, the ultimatum was issued to buy time for the protesters.
“There have been worrying signs that the protests will no longer be so peaceful. When the militia was so violent, people started waking up to peaceful protests. So the logic was to set a deadline for both protesters and officials.” . 15 minutes she said.
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