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By concentrating its forces in Ukraine, Russia has shown its power, says Laurynas Jonavičius, a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences (VU TSMPI) at Vilnius University.
“It has been shown that if Ukraine takes any action in relation to the interests of Crimea, Donbass and Russia in Ukraine, such as closing channels, Russia will react strongly,” the political scientist said.
VIDEO: Russia has carried out military exercises in Crimea: about 10 thousand people participate. soldiers and more than 40 warships
Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Friday that it had already begun withdrawing forces from Crimea. But Foreign Minister Gabriel Landsberg said on Friday that the first signs were purely political and that real measures are expected to be withdrawn.
The United States has also said it “heard words” about the withdrawal, but said it was waiting for action.
War analyst Michael Coffman writes that the situation will clear up in the next two weeks.
“If Russia really begins to redistribute forces, then it is correct to interpret all this as a show of force. However, it seems that some elements (of the military – Past ed.) Will remain. How much, where and for how long are important questions” writes M. Kofman on Twitter.
When Russia began mobilizing on the border with Ukraine and in occupied Crimea, US President Joe Biden, who previously called Russian President Vladimir Putin an assassin, invited him to meet in a neutral country.
L. Jonavičius says that all parties present a possible meeting as their victory, but its content remains unclear.
VIDEO: Biden called Putin a murderer: how will US-Russian relations change?
“It can be seen as a sign of weakness to give in to Russia’s demands. However, if the Russians are clearly told at that meeting that there are red lines and that the West is willing to do everything possible to defend their interests, the question it’s who will win, “said the political scientist.
The mobilization has shown the West that the hostile rhetoric and escalation taking place here come at a price, says Alexander Baunov, an analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center.
“This price is a threat of a real conflict that nobody wants. The Kremlin’s words were heard, “Baunov told the Financial Times.
There are also benefits for Ukraine
VU TSPMI professor, political scientist Nerijus Maliukevičius suggests interpreting the concentration of forces not only through the prism of Ukraine. It is important that the Kremlin demonstrate its power to its internal audience as well, as this diverts attention from the internal challenges posed by the jailed Alexei Navaln, who went on a hunger strike.
VIDEO: Kremlin critic Alexei Navaln is taken to hospital
According to the political scientist, one of the most important objectives of the Kremlin’s strategy is to test the J. Biden administration and increase tensions in relations with Europe. And now we have to wait for some signs that Biden has passed the test.
“If the withdrawal of forces is the result of some kind of concessions from the West, or if it is understood that nothing more can be achieved by increasing such tensions, we will see it in these days. <...> So far, the Biden administration’s position is fairly balanced. ” 15 minutes said N. Maliukevičius.
After Biden softened his rhetoric and invited Putin to meet, the United States imposed sanctions on Russia a few days later for election interference and a cyberattack against the United States, and ordered 10 Russian diplomats suspected of espionage to leave the country. On the same day, Biden said it was time to “scale back” the situation.
L. Jonavičius says it is too early to draw conclusions about J. Biden’s policy for Russia.
“So far, the words of the Biden administration, from the Lithuanian point of view, are correct and good. On the other hand, the offer to speak with Russia in Lithuania is not only valued positively. The Biden administration is still in his childhood, “he said.
Photo by Josvydas Elinskas / 15min / Laurynas Jonavičius
At this stage, the crisis appears to have had a positive effect on Ukraine as well, writes Peter Dickinson, editor of the Atlantic Council’s Ukrainian blog. According to President Volodymyr Zelensky, he had the opportunity to make a good appearance in domestic politics, he met with the leaders of France and Turkey, and Ukraine “received an encouraging international response to the rape of Russia with weapons.”
However, Jonavičius does not consider the West’s increased attention to Ukraine to be a resounding victory.
“The interest increases and decreases constantly, the problem is that there are no decisive decisions about the granting of the possibility of membership (NATO – Past ed.).
This is a Western problem, but it is also an important factor for Ukraine. “They have many problems inside, and not only Russia causes them, although it has a very great influence,” says the political scientist.
Russia occupied Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014. Since the spring of that year, Kiev forces in eastern Ukraine have been fighting Russian-backed separatists. The conflict has already claimed more than 13 thousand. it lives.
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