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1 photoAs the old masters of revolutions said, a revolution in itself is only worth something if there is a force willing to defend its conquests. In the case of Belarus, there is no such force. Photo by EPA-Elta
– What did the Belarusian revolutionaries do wrong, who did not take the initiative and achieve victory? Why has Aliaksandr Lukashenko only intensified recently and the opposition’s enthusiasm is growing stronger?
– As the old masters of revolutions said, a revolution in itself is only worth something if there is a force willing to defend its victories. In the case of Belarus, there is no such force. In the best of cases, about 600 thousand people took to the streets, of which there is a tendency to take active actions, that is, they can attack the government not only with flowers and emoticons, in the best of cases, there are 30-50 thousand with whom you can do something. It is well known that not all attempts to use peaceful civil protests are effective, as not only the technology of non-violent power shift has improved over the last 30 years, but also the defense techniques used by dictatorships. In this case, Lukashenko has long been planning and preparing for possible protests, as has Vladimir Putin, who established the National Guard 3.5 years ago, that is, an analogue of the gendarmerie that was still operating in Tsarist times. And such organizations have the main task of dealing with revolutionary trends and moods. So the government was very well prepared. But worst of all, the Belarusian people have not been able to formulate their national ideas in this way, so the people who are going to protest have no ideology or fixed goals.
Today, there is only one slogan in all the noise: “Batka, come out …” But when the “batka” comes out, something has to come. And it is in this situation that I say that the current wave of popular protests is provoked and controlled so that a much more pro-Russian candidate than Lukashenko comes to power.
– So our government is working directly with Moscow to maintain revolutionary sentiment?
– Of course. I can easily prove it. Today, three, so to speak, “leaders” of protests can be seen in Belarus. For example, the husband of our beloved Sviatlan Cichanouskaya is a recently launched blogger in orbit who attacked Lukashenko with unkind statements, and until then he successfully lived in Moscow and glorified Russian policy in Donbass and the occupation of Crimea. Viktor Babaryka and Marija Kolesnikova with him are people who work for Gazprom. Probably no one would say that Gazprom is one of the Kremlin’s main instruments for implementing policies in Europe. If you don’t believe me, listen to Vytautas Landsbergis … Mr Valery Cepkalo is a former Belarusian diplomat who has the best relations in Russia and escaped there, as soon as he sued Lukashenko for sanctions, leaving his wife hostage … And simply there are no other leaders. These “leaders” smell the Kremlin as clearly as possible. The Kremlin is being built for Babaryk, and currently, according to my data, the conditions under which he will resign after the approval of the new Constitution and security for him, his family and his accumulated assets are being negotiated with Lukashenko. Guarantee. The Kremlin will lead V. Babarykas to the new elections, and next to him will be M. Kolesnikova, who is already quite popular today. Thus, all those who are very fascinated by the Belarusian revolution may soon wonder: is this new Belarus, with many industrial objects owned by Russian oligarchs, the option that will benefit Lithuania? I no longer speak of Russia’s military bases in Belarus and Russia’s imminent threat to NATO borders …
– And then what is Lukashenko’s claim that “if Belarus falls, Russia will be different”?
– This statement is addressed to Putin, since Lukashenko is still in intense negotiations with Moscow. Those who imagine that he completely surrendered to Moscow, falling into the arms of V. Putin, after Linkevičius and Tapin “scared” him in Medininkai, those people are very naive. Lukashenko has been pushed into an uncomfortable bargaining position, but he is defending himself here as well. But let’s go back to the mechanisms of the revolution. If Lithuania had taken its mission to Belarus seriously, our political institutions have been working since 2000, helping the opposition to configure itself as a party system and as people with a clear understanding of the mechanisms of power take-over, then it would help to bring these leaders into the political orbit. , adequate public information sources and mechanisms would be created, etc. And not all Lithuanian funds would be used for this, but all the power of the EU and NATO. Regrettably, Lithuania ignored the possibility and necessity of such actions. And now, suddenly seeing the fire of a certain dissatisfaction, a dozen men have just made a warm-up … That is why we are living a complete fiasco, because something like a change of government in a foreign state is being carefully prepared and responsibly. And first the question is asked: and who will be the one who, with my help, will come to power there and benefit me? Let’s take a historical example of how the German General Staff financed Lenin’s arrival in Russia to make a revolution. Lenin, transported there in a closed wagon from Switzerland through all of war-torn Europe, contributed greatly to the change of government in Russia. And that? Did the Germans get what they hoped for? The same is true in this case: if you want to put something in power, you must have mechanisms for how you will handle that power. Since all this is not so, the Lithuanian government is doing the most stupid thing: it catches the first woman to appear and the Lithuanian film studio is making a video about “her heroic marches” …
– German-Russian relations experienced some tests last week due to the poisoning of Alexei Navaln. Even Chancellor Angela Merkel at one point wondered if the Nord Stream 2 project was worth continuing. Do you believe such doubts from the Chancellor?
– What Angela Merkel is doing is the most disgusting bluff. At the moment, the construction of Nord Stream 2 is on hold due to US sanctions, and nothing has happened there for a long time. And now Merkel’s statements that “we are considering not laying the pipeline” are simply ridiculous and deplorable, because the process has been out of her hands for so long. It is an attempt to save “face” in a clearly absurd situation that cannot be reacted to. Ask Ms Merkel why she did not explain that she would not cooperate with Moscow when Russian forces occupied Crimea. Why didn’t you say anything about the joint pipelines with Gazprom? And from 2014 to this day, 14,000 people have already died. Was there any reaction from Merkel or Emmanuel Macron? How is the life of at least one young man who died in Donbass (regardless of which side) worse than the life of A. Navaln? What makes one person playing a rival on television screens more important than 14,000 lives? But the problem runs much deeper. Nord Stream 2 has always been seen as an attack on Ukraine’s ability to maintain its gas transit status. Merkel, knowing that she was taking bread from millions of people and that she was “pouring water into the Kremlin mill,” thus striking a potential NATO opponent, was still busy laying pipes. And what, perhaps because of A. Navaln, is going to stop the construction of the facility, which has been standing for half a year and also?
– The Germans have just stated that A. Navaln has already recovered and strengthened protection in his pavilion at the Charite Clinic in Berlin. So are the Russians expected to try again to poison him?
– All this is pure mockery of common sense. Angela Merkel for 20 years thought she could successfully lather the eyes of all Europeans, putting a key factor in stability. In the meantime, however, it has destroyed the ability of the Bundeswehr and Germany to have a serious impact on the situation in Russia. Today, together with Macron, he is the main destroyer of the European defense security architecture. The diagnosis here has been very clear since he was a spokesperson for Lothar de Misiere, a former Stasi agent …
– And at that time V. Putin canceled his annual press conference? Why?
– There is logic in this … In this situation, you want to avoid questions about Russia’s participation in the revolutionary events in Belarus, about Russia’s position on the prospects for change in Belarus, about the same Nord Stream 2 and huge losses, on the loss of the Sila Sibiri gas pipeline. prices and the signing of an absurd agreement with the Chinese on non-functionality and the loss of another pipeline to Turkey … Putin is well aware that these problems will not be avoided. All the more so since you have no answers to these questions.
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