Reserve Major: Lukashenko deliberately plays dangerous game

The leitmotif supposedly threatened by Belarus as a dictatorial external threat began to develop as soon as the riots began. Russia has now joined. This does not surprise defense experts at all, as it is an old tactic that tries to find the enemy and divert the attention of Belarusians from the events in Minsk.

It cannot be ruled out that it is for this reason that, following the protests, Lukashenko suddenly began conducting military exercises without warning on the Lithuanian-Polish border. True, there is another version that the dictator cannot trust his army, whose commanders are loyal to Russia, so by sending forces further from Minsk, he is trying to protect himself and his position in the first place. .

However, it is obvious that A. Lukashenko does not like Lithuania’s clear position on the torture of peaceful protesters and the support of the opposition. He also demonstrated this during the “Road to Freedom” event in Lithuania, when a Belarusian military helicopter flew over the territory of our country. It is true, a bold provocation, my specialists who spoke with Delfi, A. Lukashenko could have sought not only to intimidate, but also to involve Lithuania in a game that would completely open its hands in Belarus.

Looking for a pretext to enter a military post

As Reserve Major Darius Antanaitis said in Delfi11, Lukashenko seeks to find a pretext to introduce a military situation in Belarus that allows him to do whatever he wants.

“There are two aspects to this place. The first aspect is that in order for Lukashenko to stand up to the opposition, he must activate a collective agreement with Russia. This requires a direct armed invasion or armed aggression against Belarus. The second thing is that if some hypothetical military action is initiated, it can introduce a military situation, then the Constitution goes to hell and we do it as I want, ”said D. Antanaitis.

Marius Laurinavičius, an analyst at the Vilnius Institute for Political Analysis, does not rule out that Lukashenko provoked the provocation in Lithuania for precisely this reason. However, he noted that so far it is not clear from Mr. Lukashenko’s actions that he wants to do so.

“The very scenario that comes to mind is completely real. I talked a lot about this and I did it before the elections, all that misinformation about Wagner may be a desire to impose that state of emergency and cancel the elections at that time. This is a problem you have in Belarus and you can take advantage of the emergency.

In principle, such a thing is very real. The only thing was that he already had so many reasons for it (not the legal one, but the one he wanted), and if he lacked he could provoke or play some kind of provocation on the protesters, an act of terrorism or something else very typical of them. regimes. – both Russia and Belarus. If he had wanted to do it, he could have done it a long time ago, so I don’t see enough reasons to say he really wants to do it, “said M. Laurinavičius.

The helicopter was armed, a signal had already been given to the NATO fighters

In assessing the situation when the Belarusian helicopter flew to the territory of Lithuania exactly where almost all the main Lithuanian leaders gathered, D. Antanaitis stated that Belarus probably expected that the NATO fighter jets would simply shoot it down and this would be a pretext for the escalation of the conflict.

“We must remember how Russia made the same provocation on Turkish territory and the plane was shot down. I think Belarus was trying to do the exact same thing, that helicopter pilot was actually a suicide bomber. These helicopters don’t fly one by one, they fly in pairs. And, as we have seen, it flew armed: two sets of antitank unmanned missile complexes were hung under the frame for peaceful demonstrations and balloons.

Lukashenko apparently hoped that our NATO air police, perhaps the air defense, would shoot down that helicopter, I want to emphasize, an armed helicopter. This would aggravate the whole situation. In this case, condolences to the pilot who flew, although he was condemned by Lukashenko, that he would be shot and killed. I think we acted with great strength and wisdom in this place, without succumbing to provocation: it flew and it flew, although it was only a matter of seconds to shoot down this helicopter. But in this place we have maintained a very serious and solid peace, ”said D. Antanaitis.

Meanwhile, the Lithuanian Armed Forces commander Valdemaras Rupšys assured on the TV3 program “Dienas pjūvis” that the NATO Air Police were ready to react and that it was a matter of seconds when this would happen.

“The reaction is typical in such cases. When airspace is violated or a border is crossed, the reaction is through diplomatic channels. I can remind you that this helicopter had flown, and as far as our airspace surveillance service can see, it was two minutes away.

(…) I didn’t mention two minutes in vain. The airspace violation signaled the NATO Air Police and they had already started responding. The reaction time is such that it is necessary to occupy positions and take off, this plane has already taken off ”, said V. Rupšys.

Playing a dangerous game

According to D. Antanaitis, the game in which Lukashenko tries to involve Lithuania is very dangerous. That is why, he says, it is crucial to maintain strategic calm and understand that the regime is trying to provoke some military action against him.

Asked how to understand when the threat is real and when it is just a provocation, the reserve commander assured that if Belarus started a conflict in another country, he would sign the sentence himself and Lukashenko understands it perfectly.

“The itch must be real, not in such a way that I put my foot in it, I’m trying to go to you, I’m not trying to go to you. There is something dangerous here, because if you catch it, you involve it in yourself, you are guilty. In this case, if Lukashenko tried to escalate the conflict by invading the territory of Lithuania, he would automatically become guilty of starting the conflict. The United Nations, the European Union, which, apart from him, does not care much, even Russia, I think, I would condemn this, because it would not be worth it to support a person who has invaded another country for no reason. I think we have to have strategic peace and patience in this game, put our foot behind the fence and go back in, “he said. the interlocutor.

For his part, M. Laurinavičius pointed out that the motive for this act of the Belarusian regime may be much more primitive, just to show power and intimidate.

“It just came to our notice then. I really don’t think they came in accidentally, I didn’t see where they came in because they caught those balloons. But it may be the simplest option: a show of force. Just. On the one hand, Lukashenko is putting pressure on the military to demonstrate that power in some way, it may even be showing the army itself to Lukashenko. “Here is a pure shooting,” said the analyst.

According to the interlocutor, observing the current situation, it is clear that Lukashenko will not allow new elections.

“He will not hold elections, it is quite obvious and it is completely naive to expect Lukashenko to agree to the new elections. There are two options: either he sits in power on a bayonet and tries to survive with them, with or without a military position, but with the help of a purely military position, or he escapes. The possibility that he would suddenly agree to the new elections now, even with the mediation of someone, does not exist in principle “, predicted the interlocutor.

Notes exchanged

Delfi recalls that after Freedom Road, Lithuania delivered a note to Belarus about the violation of airspace, according to Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius, a Belarusian helicopter had flown into the territory of Lithuania during the solidarity campaign.

“His helicopter violated our airspace and today the Belarusian ambassador received a strong note of protest,” Foreign Minister Linas Linkevičius informed BNS.

According to him, the helicopter was visually visible in Medininkis, at the end of the living chain.

“It just came to our notice then. We have information from our airspace control that there is a violation,” said the Lithuanian head of diplomacy.

At the same time, the Belarusian news agency BelTA reported on the same Monday about an attempt to violate Belarusian airspace on the Lithuanian side; According to the Belarusian Defense Ministry, a probe with eight balloons and “anti-state” symbols was released from Lithuania.

Belarus also gave Lithuania a note about the balloons that flew to Belarus during the Freedom Road campaign, calling it a “planned provocation”.