Recent review: The acceleration of the pandemic was negative again, but the number of resuscitations received drastic treatment

Last week was also the first since October, when there was no excess mortality.

The total number of patients in hospitals is declining, but the number of people treated in resuscitation rose sharply last week.

Sequence reading in Lithuania shows an increase in the prevalence of the COVID-19 virus strain B.1.1.7; this so far represents about 16 percent. scanned viral genomes. This variety can increase the acceleration of the pandemic by 40-70%, which in Lithuania’s current scenario would mean that from -20%, the acceleration would become + 12-36%, according to the review.

Summary of key indicators

1) Dynamics of cases and investigations: the increase in cases that began a couple of weeks ago has gradually stabilized and decreased, the acceleration of the pandemic has turned negative again, and the number of cases is decreasing in municipalities with the same number of municipalities than in the black zone.

a. The number of new cases began to fall again and reached an average of 432 cases per day, which is less than what we last recorded in 2020 on October 23. Study volumes increased by roughly 1,000 trials per day for a couple of weeks, reducing the percentage of positive trials to 6 percent.

B. The distribution of municipalities by zones last week and two weeks ago – halved the number of municipalities in the black zone.

C. After 10 days in the positive zone, the acceleration of the pandemic became negative again: both the number of positive cases and the percentage of positive tests decreased by at least 20 percent. in 7 days.

D. As the acceleration of the pandemic turned negative again, the number of municipalities where the number of cases is increasing and also those where the percentage of positive investigations is increasing has also increased for some time. We now have about 20 municipalities in both categories.

2) The total number of hospitalized patients is slightly decreasing, but in the last week about 15 percent. the number of people treated in resuscitation increased. This growth was determined by the Kaunas, Klaipėda and Vilnius regions, where this indicator increased.

Pandemic trajectory

The pandemic situation of the country and its municipalities is defined by two indicators: the normalized number of new cases (vertical axis) and the percentage of positivity of diagnostic tests (horizontal axis). From the beginning of the year to mid-February, Lithuania’s trajectory in the space of these pandemic indicators quickly approached the yellow zone, but it spent the entire second half of February in stagnation. Since the beginning of March, the approach towards the yellow zone has been observed again.

The trajectories of the municipalities are very diverse, three examples are given. Since mid-February, the number of new cases per day has been increasing in Vilnius. The absolute number of new cases per day in the municipality of Kalvarija is not high, and if more diagnostic tests were carried out, this municipality would possibly be in a better position for three colored zones instead of the black zone (C1). Svencionys d. in the municipality (black zone) both rates are very high, there is very little collection and analysis of samples.