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Rating changes
Since March, when the last Vilmorus poll was conducted, TS-LKD has wasted its leadership. 17 percent would have voted in March. of those surveyed, the June poll found that this number dropped to 14.3 percent.
The LV®S rating increased slightly: in March it was 12.4 percent. in June – 13.4 percent.
The Social Democratic Party of Lithuania (LSDP) is stable in third place, 8.3 percent would have voted for this party. of the respondents, and in June – 9.1 percent.
The Liberal Movement also increased its support, with 3.1 percent votes in favor of the party. of the respondents, in June – 4.3 percent.
In June, the Liberal Movement remained in fifth place, as it was overtaken by the Labor Party, although it slightly dispersed support among Vilmorus’ polls: 5.1 percent would have supported the party in March. surveyed in June: 4.6 percent of the respondents.
“Order and Justice” would receive 3.1 percent. electoral support (3.8% in March). The poll was conducted before the “police” decided to liquidate the party, forming a new political entity “Libertad y Justicia”.
According to the survey, the Polish Lithuanian electoral campaign: the Union of Christian Families would receive 2.2 percent. Social Democratic Labor Party – 2.1 percent, Freedom Party – 2 percent, Welfare of the Central Lithuanian Party – 1.7 percent, Christian Union – 0.4 percent. Support from respondents.
“Nothing happened”
Vladas Gaidys, director of the Vilmorus Center for Public Opinion and Market Research, said there were no major changes to the match leaderboard, as there were no major moves here.
“We just realized that nothing happened on the political scene during those two months.” There was a lot of debate about the use of masks, cafes, but not about party programs and the like, everything was forgotten. And those parties, as they were, are as they are at the moment. ” Delphi The Vilmorus director commented on the latest ratings.
He said the top three places on the match leaderboard came closer.
“The result of the union of the fatherland has slightly decreased, but this is not a special trend here, the result of the LVŽS has slightly increased. The result of Prime Minister Saulius Skvernelis has also increased, which may be related to him. And the LSDP shows a slight growth trend, “he said.
V. Gaidys noted that almost half of the respondents did not have an opinion or did not know which political force to support.
“As the election approaches, the number of undecided people generally begins to think, they don’t know. Another aspect is that there was not much party fighting.”
In March, 11.7 percent. He said he would not vote, 25.9 percent. – He did not know. According to data from the June survey, this number is quite similar: 11.9 percent. He said he would not vote, that he did not know one more percent, 26.8 percent.
“As the election approaches, the number of undecided people generally starts to think, they don’t know it. The other aspect was not a lot of party fighting,” he said.
“People said that the fight against the pandemic was positive: more than half of them were positive regarding the measures (used, aut. P.), the restrictions.” Delphi said V. Gaidys, director of Vilmorus.
Bad sign to conservatives
Algis Krupavičius, dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences at Vytautas Magnus University (VMU), in evaluating the latest match ratings, said the clearest sign was a very poor sign for the ratings leader, the Union of the Homeland.
“Basically, the trends don’t change, except for a very bad signal to the National Union. (…) Such fluctuations are certainly not frequent. That would say that conservatives should think about what they do and how they do it. Because it seems that the effect of glass ceilings for them is not really weakened, perhaps even the opposite, intensified.
Saulius Skvernelis
There’s one more message: The poll was conducted after Šimonytė was announced as the leader of the list. Voters appear to have remained indifferent to the news, which was predictable. If the gathering of new voters around TS-LKD was expected to take place suddenly only after announcing that I. Šimonytė would be the leader of the list, there was no need to have such allusions, ”he said.
A. Krupavičius stated that I. Šimonytė should attract a liberal voter to the Union of the Fatherland. But not one of the liberal forces.
“The reason is also that I. Šimonytė seems too liberal for a part of the TS-LKD voters themselves. And for liberal voters, the swords are sharpened by 3.5 parties: the Freedom Party, the Liberal Movement, the National Union and the former supporters of Artūras Zuokas. (…) Of course, I. Šimonytė has a certain opportunity to mobilize the circle of former voters and supporters of the presidential elections. But that mobilization is very likely to be limited. ” Delphi said political scientist A. Krupavičius.
“There is one more message: the poll was conducted after me. Šimonytė was announced as the leader of the list. (…) If anyone expected that the gathering of new voters around TS-LKD would take place suddenly, just after announcing that I. Šimonytė would be the leader of the list, there was no need to have such allusions ”
In evaluating the outcome of the LV®S, the political scientist stated that his support could have been even greater.
“It could have been even bigger, especially in the context of a pandemic, when the ruling violin was played by the ruling coalition. Also in public space, it was party no. 1. (…) In other countries, the Ratings of the ruling parties increased more than in the context of the pandemic, ”he assured.
A. Krupavičius Delphi He said that if the same trend continues through October, that is good news.
“This rating news is not bad, its rating was in a kind of change: it’s going up, it’s going down.” And now, apparently, they can maintain that stable rating, its low growth until the Seimas elections. This is basically good news for them. If they hinted that many voters would support the LVLS, then that illusion dissipated like a soap bubble, “said the political scientist.
He added that the LVŽS still has an element of mobilization: the long-awaited leader of the list, Prime Minister S. Skvernelis, has also increased its ranking.
“The potential for mobilization of the electorate is likely to increase slightly. But it is certainly not possible to expect a coup in public opinion polls in favor of LVŽS,” he explained.
You can have secret hopes
In the third place of the qualification table: LSDP working in the Seimas minority. According to A. Krupavičius, this result should not please the party either.
“If we look at their votes from those who went to the polls, the percentage of their votes is very similar to that obtained in the European elections (EP), neither forward nor backward. Because the Social Democrats are seen as the party that could competing for the top spots, that ranking is still too low. So far, they are landing at LVŽS, TS – LKD. So far, the dynamics of qualification do not promise a breakthrough either.
Gintautas Paluckas
The good news is that the election results for the LSDP in recent years have been slightly better than the ratings. If confirmed again, they may have secret hopes that rather low ratings will not get in the way of a real vote, ”A. Krupavičius shared his assessment of the situation.
Fourth on the table, the remaining Labor Party, according to the interlocutor, can expect a breakthrough in support.
“The Labor Party has a reservation, which is not yet visible in this poll: over 3 percent of voters who support” Order and Justice. “However, there is no need to expect that all who support this party go to the Labor Party camp, but this party has a reservation, ”said A. Krupavičius.
He said that the catastrophe of the 2016 Seimas elections should not be repeated.
“The ratings really showed a rather favorable situation, and that they did not exceed 5 percent, perhaps it was a small but sensational one,” recalled Seimas’s last election.
A. Krupavičius hoped that the decrease in the result of the Homeland Union would force the Liberal Movement, which remained in fifth place on the leaderboard, to work more actively.
“The homeland union must carefully consider what needs to be done urgently. If such trends persist, their prospects may be worse than in the 2016 Seimas elections.”
“So far, they have a chance to cross the 5 percent cartel, but the competition that’s going on for liberal voters doesn’t allow them to say for sure.” Furthermore, since the Freedom Party is quite active in launching the electoral campaign, and the decrease in the result of the National Union should also be a kick to activate the electoral campaign, “A. Krupavičius conveyed his advice to the match.
Although there is a clear decline in single-party support, according to a VMU political scientist, no one should be happy.
“The homeland union must carefully consider what needs to be done urgently. If such trends continue, their prospects may be worse than they were in the 2016 Seimas elections. For others, not even the green peasants can boast, but others can too. I would say that everyone, with the exception of the National Union, may have cautious optimism, because the jump in their qualification in such a short time is too much, “said the VMU political scientist.
Dangerous trends
Rima Urbonaitė, a professor at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU), emphasized that almost all of the grade changes recorded by Vilmorus are wrong. Therefore, changes should only be seen as signs of a possible trend.
“It was very difficult for the opposition to find their place during the quarantine. Sometimes that loud speech did not produce any results. Because we have not always necessarily seen a significant result. They spoke a little just for the sake of speaking. Sometimes, it seemed that when they were realizing that they were completely disappearing from public space, opposition representatives were trying to artificially meet or hyperbolize certain events, “said the political scientist.
As an example, he recalled the opposition’s allegations against Prime Minister S. Skvernel about the coronavirus test.
“I think more is expected from the opposition. (…) I think there have been episodes that have done more harm than good. Being in a public space was not always well thought out,” R. Urbonaitė evaluated the actions of the conservatives.
“The hope and desire is to see (in power, aut. P.) people who tend to solve problems instead of creating them.”
According to the political scientist, the peasants demonstrated a similar “problem”.
“It just came to our attention then. Even if the question is not related to it, the answer will always start with the phrase” or conservatives. “In other words, a voter can really tire of those intertwined pieces that are already getting a little bit There should already be a sign here that we need to think very carefully about the criticism, the action plan and the image we are creating in the public space, “said the policy expert.
He added that disputes and disputes are bothering people, they want to see real representatives in power.
“The hope and desire is to see (in power, aut. P.) people who tend to solve problems rather than create them,” said R. Urbonaitė.
Gabriel Landsbergis
Although there is support for individual LVŽS politicians, it does not mean that it will be broadcast to the party. And where else is voters’ desire to search for “new saviors”?
“Just because individuals are highly valued in a party does not mean that the party’s ranking should rise sharply right away. Because we also keep in mind that voters want a change. Despite the fact that they now appreciate the government’s work To control the virus crisis, that doesn’t mean you don’t think of another possible government. In Lithuania, voters have the ability to look for “new saviors” and keep thinking about change. There is a time when the party itself is in doubt ” Delphi said the political scientist.
Know your price
The support of the Social Democrats, according to the political scientist, is quite stable. According to R. Urbonaitė, this is also what the representatives of this party want, because they are actively preparing for the elections.
“The Social Democrats are in a pretty gray position, they are somewhere in between. They are trying to be that dove of peace, trying not to criticize too much. Apparently, some voters are expected to be able to return to them. They hope to win the fight” where two fight, the third wins. “(…) As a result, they balance in such a strange position and the qualification does not move, it does not balance. This is the situation we have. But you should not fall asleep and think that everything It will do well on its own. Stability of ratings should not mislead reassuring societies, “said R. Urbonaitė.
According to the political scientist, LSDP representatives understand that they can be a crucial player in the formation of the ruling coalition after the next elections. So, knowing its price, you cannot “exaggerate”, since both conservatives and peasants can be coveted.
The MRU political scientist said that the fate of the Labor Party depended on the actions of its leader Viktor Uspaskich.
“At the moment, the Labor Party is in the same position, because the ranking has increased since V. Uspaskich’s return, if you can say yes, it is. So far, we see Mr. Uspaskich very episodically, so that it is very difficult to say where this party will move in the coming months. That the potential to exceed 5 percent they have, we can say. They are now a “sleeping beauty” and I do not know if the “kiss” by V. Uspaskich it can wake her up, “the political expert visually defined the party’s possibilities.
© DELFI / Josvydas Elinskas
R. Urbonaitė also had questions about the actions of the liberal movements, which could offend his voters.
“His result had increased and the new party leader, Viktorija Čmilytė-Nielsen, apparently gave a good boost to this. His position and criticism were constructive, but they should adequately evaluate certain actions, because inviting Victor Francis to the list is simply not I don’t know if the voter will evaluate it, but right now they should think very carefully about how they look and behave in public, “he said.
The political scientist urged the parties not to relax, because the biggest job is still in the future.
“Nobody needs to relax, in the rankings, stable. (…) All the work of the parties is still waiting, so it is not necessary to be sure that everything will be fine”, – Delphi R. Urbonaitė spoke.
Vilmorus conducted a survey of the country’s population from June 5 to 13 on behalf of the Lietuvos Rytas newspaper.
The Seimas elections will be held on October 11.
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