Recent analysis of coronavirus statistics: Excess mortality is concerning

The review of the main indicators of COVID-19 prepared by the data analyst of the Government Chancellery Aistis Šimaitis records that the number of cases and the percentage of positive tests in the country in 2021. February 1-7 decreased more rapidly during the term. However, the situation regarding deaths from coronavirus remains difficult: excess mortality remains at 20-30%.

Although the number of municipalities with up to 5 cases per day has been recorded in the last 7 days, there are now 32 of these municipalities, the geographical distribution of COVID-19 in Lithuania is still quite wide. And the risk of new outbreaks remains high across the country.

Improved results are recorded

The analysis provided by the government indicates that an average of 588 new cases of coronavirus have been detected in the last 7 days. A week ago, the figure was 807 cases.

Meanwhile, in 14 days the number of new cases is 100,000. population, February 1 to 7. data, there were 359 cases. A week ago, that number was almost a hundred cases higher, reaching 447 new cases per 100,000. population in 14 days.

The proportion of positive tests is also decreasing: currently the proportion of positive tests of the total number of tests is 7.77%. Last week, the number of positive cases was 9.2 percent.

The analysis presented by government data analyst A. Šimaiitis claims that the acceleration of the pandemic in Lithuania has been negative since January 1. The acceleration of the coronavirus pandemic is currently 16 percent.

“While the average number of new cases detected per day for 7 days per day has decreased by 27 percent, the volume of tests has also decreased and the percentage of positive tests has decreased by only 16 percent,” said the analysis.

The geographical situation of the spread of the virus is ambiguous

Recent data provided by the government shows an increase in the number of municipalities with an average of 5 or fewer cases per day. Currently, there are 32 such municipalities in Lithuania. A week ago, there were 8 fewer, that is, 24. At the same time, the number of municipalities increased with a positive research percentage of 10%. or less. February 7 there were 39 of them, a week ago – 26.

However, the prevalence of the coronavirus in the country remains very high. In the last 7 days, this is February 1-7. COVID-19 cases were detected in most of the country’s elderly. However, the prevalence has decreased in the last 4 weeks.

The situation in hospitals is tense

“2021 February 8 According to the morning data, a thousand people were treated in the hospital. 282 patients with COVID-19, which is approximately 5 times the number that had at the beginning of the second wave in mid-October. Thus, although the number of new cases detected through diagnostic tests is decreasing quite rapidly, the number of patients in hospitals is decreasing at a much slower rate and the situation remains tense, ”says a document from the Government Chancellery.

The number of deaths from COVID-19 continued to decline last week. However, according to the data provided by A. Šimaiitis, the total number of deaths is still significantly higher than the average for recent years.