[ad_1]
The most captive elections to the Russian State Duma in the last 30 years, with repression and suppressed opposition, no longer seem surprising. And, apparently, why should someone abroad care, especially in Lithuania?
However, Russia is a large and dangerous neighbor of Lithuania, where the ongoing processes can be not only contagious: the naivety of the dialogue with the Kremlin regime in the West has not disappeared, but the possibility that the incumbent Vladimir Putin will remain there. after. the presidential elections of 2024. Therefore, it will inevitably be necessary to communicate with such a country, even after overcoming various barriers. There is no shortage of optimists and pessimists in Lithuania about the future of Russia, there is only one consensus: it is not worth waiting for positive changes in the near future. And a lot of bad things can happen.
Why Optimists Don’t Give Up Hope
Andrius Kubilius and Marius Laurinavičius MEPs, an independent analyst of the Russian regime who participated in the Delfi program, agreed to be described as optimistic and pessimistic about the future of Russia. It is true that both stressed that they are more realistic.
For example, A. Kubilius, a supporter of a free and democratic Russia, who has raised and supported several free Russia initiatives in the European Parliament, pointed out that a free and democratic Russia, with which it would be possible to maintain normal neighborhood relations, is first and foremost in the interest of Lithuania. And such an optimistic scenario, if you believe Samuel Huntington’s book The Third Wave: Democratization in the 20th Century. The logic is possible in the future, since Russia cannot be seen as a special case.
“Huntington explains that democratization is happening in waves and that we are the product of the third wave. Russia under Yeltsin was a democracy that collapsed. But what is happening in Russia is not incomprehensible, we are only waiting for the fourth wave.
My optimism was reinforced by what began in Belarus last year, when Belarusians took to the streets, reflecting trends in the post-Soviet space. I believe that Russia has the same opportunities to become a democracy. In Russia, periodically, the waves change: there was Stalin, and then when Khrushchev came as an anti-Stalin, and Brezhnev came as an anti-Khrushchev, etc. If we look at it that way, then now logically the anti-Putin come after Putin,
In his opinion, there is still a mistake in the West that today’s Russia, its regime with Putin at the forefront, can be replaced by dialogue. By the way, even the Russians themselves are talking about such a mistake: it will not change the dialogue of the regime, it will not force it to open up.
According to A. Kubilius, the young generation of Russians who want to see their country without Putin and do not intend to vote for him in the 2024 elections can still be believed. Be that as it may in Russia itself, Europe has high hopes of a European Green Course that, if successful, could reduce the West’s dependence on Russia’s natural resources, primarily oil and gas, Russia’s main export products, and political influence in the West. .
“If it is successful, it can change the economic and political structure of Russia itself,” Kubilius said.
He is already working on a plan to maintain power.
At the time, M. Laurinavičius remained skeptical. Without writing to Russia as a fatalistic project or doomed to an uncivilized dictatorship, he recalled that there were no elections in Russia as a phenomenon for a long time.
“What happened is a farce that demonstrated the obvious: when Navaln was arrested, many people said that he had a super strategy for the elections, even then it was clear to me that the regime was in control of the situation, unfortunately. The best example was in Chabarosvke, where there were large protests on a Russian scale against the new local governor.
Some have said that a supposedly revolutionary situation is maturing that will infect the entire country. The current governor for whom these protests were held, is he “winning” the elections by a large margin and where are the protests? None. This shows how much Russia controls the situation. So I don’t see any reason to imagine that this could change in the medium term ”, emphasized the analyst.
In his opinion, what is happening in Russia is not new, but old, realized and continued during the Soviet era: the roots of the current Putin regime can be seen since 1982, when then-KGB commander Yuri Andropov took office. the sovietic Union.
“It was a show about how to carry out the transformation of power; the KGB’s plan was to hand over economic and ultimately political power to people who are loyal to themselves. “These scenarios are undoubtedly created by the current regime: if it ever happened that one way or another the regime had to transform itself, it would have successors who would deceive the people and the international community and maintain power,” warned M. Laurinavičius. .
It is strictly forbidden to use the information published by DELFI on other websites, in the media or elsewhere, or to distribute our material in any way without consent, and if consent has been obtained, it is necessary to cite DELFI as the source.
[ad_2]
