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According to Politico, his visit will take place in the context of extremely tense relations between the European Union (EU) and Moscow. Although the trip was planned well in advance of the protests in neighboring Belarus and the poisoning of Alexei Navaln, an opposition to the Russian government, these events and the behavior of Russia in general will be reflected in many of Macron’s discussions.
In Lithuania, which shares a border with Russia and one of the four battle groups of NATO’s “front force battalions” to deter Moscow, including the recently deployed French unit, Macron’s dialogue with Russia is particularly important.
“The so-called new security architecture, which France wants to develop together with Russia, is a sensitive topic for us, because it is a bilateral conversation on a multilateral issue,” said a Lithuanian government official before Macron’s visit.
As in the case of the French leader’s visit to Poland in February, solving worrying issues regarding Russia will be at the core of the president’s proposals, Macron’s office employees said.
“This will be an opportunity not only to listen to sensitive issues from our partners, especially regarding Russia, but also to discuss with them the best way forward so that future actions take into account not only their interests but also those of Europe. as a whole, “Elisha said. chamber officer.
However, Lithuanian officials are cautious and recall the scathing comment of former French President Jacques Chirac in 2003, when he said that the Baltic and Eastern European countries had “missed the opportunity to remain silent” in supporting the invasion of Iraq by from the United States. France and Germany.
They will look for signs that “E. Macron better understands the concerns of Lithuania and the Baltic countries about Russia, “said a Lithuanian government official. They will also wonder if Macron will meet with Sviatlana Cichanouskaya, the leader of the Belarusian opposition.
The meeting would “send a strong message”, especially as the EU has postponed the introduction of sanctions, and would help “advance economic cooperation, especially in the areas of innovation, digitization and new technologies.”
So far, Macron’s team is avoiding and avoiding confirming that he will meet with Cichanouskaya, but does not rule out that possibility. The Belarusian opposition leader has expressed his desire to meet with the French leader.
France, on the other hand, is increasing the pressure on Belarus. French European Affairs Minister Clement Beaune told Politico that Paris was “open” to European sanctions against Belarus’ embattled autocratic President Aliaksandr Lukashenko. In addition, Macron asked him to resign.
“Obviously, Mr Lukashenko must resign,” he told the French daily Le Journal over the weekend.
Western officials have stressed that they are not competing with Moscow for Belarus, and Macron believes that Russia must be involved in solving the problem. He says he discussed the issue with Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 14, although no further action has been taken.
Alexei Navaln is another topic discussed during the conversation with Putin. Unfortunately, the French president’s questions about the poisoning of a Russian opposition figure went unanswered. Macron and other European leaders demand clarity from Moscow on the poisoning, not to mention that the French leader has said that the use of a chemical weapon is “crossing the red line.”
“I don’t think the president was surprised, I don’t think he was satisfied because he didn’t get answers to the questions, but does that mean that he won’t call Putin again? I don’t think he will call,” commented a Macron administration official. .
Be that as it may, Macron’s dialogue with Putin remains confused.
One year after the formal launch of the “strategic dialogue”, which surprised France’s European partners, including Germany, as necessary, its concrete results remain very limited.
Given that the United States did not “overburden relations with Russia” during the Barack Obama presidency, some Kremlin observers, especially in the Baltic countries, are convinced that Macron has an unreasonable belief that he can force Putin to change his behavior, even though I have. no one has been lucky yet.
It is these challenges that underline the importance and need for such dialogue, according to sources in the French presidential administration, who point out that the indefinite telephone conversations between the presidents of France and Russia show the latter’s interest.
“Should the Navaln case suddenly end the strategic dialogue with Russia?” In our opinion, this would be the opposite of the desired results. If we solved the problems without talking to Russia, we would have done it in a long time, ”says the environmental source of E. Macron.
The Navaln poisoning can be seen as a cold-blooded violation of the European security system, which Macronas wants to protect and strengthen through dialogue with Putin. Not only that, it is a challenge to the international non-proliferation scheme.
When Russia last used Novichiok, an attempt to poison former Russian undercover agent Sergei Skripal in the UK in 2018, EU member states imposed sanctions on the leadership of the Russian military intelligence agency (Moscow also denies its role in the incident).
The fact that Novičiok has been used again is a good example of the limited effectiveness of those sanctions and other measures available to Western countries in the face of Russian speculation, Politico writes.
During his stay in Lithuania, E. Macron will meet 300 French soldiers currently stationed in Rukla, who, under the leadership of German commanders, are serving in the NATO Front Forces Battalion (France has also sent Leclerc tanks to Lithuania).
Lithuania has repeatedly emphasized that it would like to see more NATO military equipment in its country.
During his visit to Lithuania, E. Macron is expected to sign at least three documents. Lithuania, Latvia and France will send a joint letter to the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, with proposals on cybersecurity, the fight against disinformation and electoral manipulation.
French voices are very clear on these issues, especially since Macron’s own election campaign has also affected programmers linked to Russia. Experts say that the French leader in Lithuania will also receive pressure on this issue.
“Lithuania would like France to take concrete measures on cybersecurity in Europe, such as participating in the Lithuanian-led PESCO project on rapid response cyber operations teams,” said a Lithuanian government source, referring to a project started under the Pact. Structured Permanent of the European Union.
Furthermore, the signing of financial technology and strategic partnership agreements between Lithuania and France is expected. Be that as it may, Russia will continue to dominate the speech of E. Macron’s visit to Lithuania.
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