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“Obviously, the drama does not come out of nowhere, we can see how the votes of one of the ruling leaders are isolated: they become difficult to predict because they do not know how the opposition factions and the Mixed Group will behave,” he told BNS the political scientist of the University Mykolas Romeris. Urbonaitė.
Meanwhile, Tomas Janeliūnas, a professor at the Institute of International Relations and Political Science at Vilnius University, says that the rulers have shown that they are capable of working even under difficult circumstances.
“This situation testifies that despite the unfavorable circumstances, the majority still look quite good: not only is it a formal majority of the three factions, but there is also some support for the majority of non-Seimas members,” he said.
Photo by Žygimantas Gedvila / 15min / Tomas Janeliūnas
In self-isolation, there is the entire ruling faction of the Liberal Movement: 11 members.
On Tuesday, 62 members of the Seimas voted in favor of I. Šimonytė’s candidacy, ten against and 41 deputies abstained.
His candidacy was supported by all the conservatives and members of the Freedom Party faction and five representatives of the Mixed Seimas group: Vytautas Bakas, Zigmantas Balčytis, Algirdas Butkevičius, Domas Griškevičius and Andrius Palionis.
Eight Social Democrats, three “workers” and one “peasant” did not participate in the vote.
The Prime Minister’s candidacy is approved by a simple majority of votes of those who participated in the vote, so those who did not participate in the vote could guarantee a lower need for a majority of votes to approve the candidacy.
“We see that it was not so easy to ‘catch’ those votes, and if it were not for the five votes of the Mixed Group of members of the Seimas and if it were not for the eight people of the Social Democratic faction who did not participate at all in the vote, the The situation could have been less favorable, “said Urbonaitė. .
Photo by Lukas April / 15 minutes / Rima Urbonaitė
From this, in his opinion, “it is obvious that this Seimas will not be characterized by stability.”
The political scientist noted that many members of the Seimas are appointed to the government, which means that a similar number of ruling members of the Seimas may not be present often enough.
T. Janeliūnas, in turn, noted that there were similar problems in the Seimas of the previous period and this way of acting of the majority is becoming quite typical. However, he predicted that parliamentarians could reach consensus on key issues.
“Most likely, the majority will use all the possibilities to make the most important decisions, to approve the program or the government budget, including the fact that some additional agreements may be needed and the support of non-majority members of the Seimas” , said.
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“Having a very strong majority, an excess of ten or more members is a kind of luxury and it is becoming increasingly difficult to create such a majority in our parliaments,” said T. Janeliūnas.
According to political scientists, the most important tasks currently awaiting I. Šimonytė are quite clear: coordinating the candidacies for the Cabinet of Ministers with the President, drafting and approving the Government’s program. The new governments will face the challenge of a pandemic.
“The pandemic is not going anywhere, it is work that will have to be done immediately and in fact you must have a plan now,” said R. Urbonaitė.
Managers are also likely to want to fundamentally review the budget and make some adjustments.
In the long term, according to T. Janeliūnas, the challenge for I. Šimonyte will be to stabilize the economic situation.
Having a very strong majority, an excess of ten or more members is a kind of luxury and it is becoming more and more difficult to create such a majority in our families, said T. Janeliūnas.
“After that, the main issue will probably be the stabilization of the economy, because it seems that the negative consequences of the pandemic will not be avoided and the next year can be dedicated to restoring a normally functioning economy as soon as possible,” said Janeliūnas.
According to him, it is still difficult to say how relations between I. Šimonytė and President Gitanas Nausėda will develop. He did not rule out the possibility that there might be some “power test” in coordinating ministerial nominations, but that would not necessarily mean a conflict.
Once the Seimas approves the candidacy of the Prime Minister and the President appoints him, the Prime Minister, no later than within 15 days after his appointment, will present to the Seimas the Government formed by him and approved by the President, submit to consideration of the program of this Government.
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