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R. Urbonaitė also points out that in Seimas, when there are tensions over the division of positions, those who govern the opposition parties should not have too much confidence. Therefore, according to the expert, the governors must first assess very well how many representatives of the opposition factions could support the candidacy of I. Šimonytė, and only then organize a vote.
The rulers will need the support of the opposition factions.
Political scientist R. Urbonaitė points out that in the case of the coronavirus, the ruling majority of three members of the Liberal Movement, formally made up of 73 members, does not seem very stable. According to the political scientist, if some of the rulers are in self-isolation, there is a risk that the Seimas session to be held on Tuesday will lack a majority of votes to approve I. Šimonytė’s candidacy for Prime Minister.
“The math is such that there are now 73 people left in the formal ruling majority. Some of them are already sick with COVID-19, others don’t know if they will end up in self-isolation over the weekend. It is natural that the formal part falls apart considerably. If the vote were to take place, it is obvious that the rulers would need additional votes not only from the formal majority, but also from other factions: the Mixed Group, the “Workers”, the “Socdems” and the “Peasants”.
The political scientist doubts that among the “peasants” there are parliamentarians who support the candidacy of I. Šimonytė, so she stresses that the only way for the ruling majority is to seek the support of the “workers” and the Social Democrats.
“I have almost no doubt that the vote will be ‘against’ in the ranks of the ‘peasants’, and there may be favor in those small opposition groups, such as the Social Democrats or the ‘workers’, but it certainly would not cut me off. hand for everyone to vote for the candidacy of I. Šimonytė “, he added. she expressed her opinion.
“The relationship seems very intact, but, for example, Gintautas Paluckas himself is obviously not very impressed with the ruling people now. But of course we will be able to assess how we are going to vote and what the final decision will be when there is a fact.” added.
Before organizing a vote, those responsible should make a very realistic assessment of the possibilities
R. Urbonaitė emphasizes that in this situation the rulers must calculate very well and make sure that the votes are not lacking when approving the candidacy of I. Šimonytė.
“Before the vote, those responsible must do a good job of calculating, doing their homework, assessing the situation and voting, only if they are sure that, mathematically elementary, those votes are enough. At the very least, we would like us to have a risk vote on purely technical aspects. I don’t think it’s worth the risk here, “shared R. Urbonaitė his ideas.
The political scientist admits that while the situation is not easily predictable, he emphasizes that he believes that the rulers will rationally evaluate their chances and will not organize a vote on I. Šimonytė’s candidacy for approval until they are sure of its success.
R. Urbonaitė states that even if it is hypothesized that I. Šimonytė is not approved as Prime Minister, a politician would probably be re-nominated.
“Common sense still dictates that if this happened hypothetically, the reason would not be because there is no majority, but simply because it cannot meet today,” said R. Urbonaitona.
However, the expert points out that in any case the situation is complicated. R. Urbonaitė highlights that if the formation of the Government is delayed due to the spread of the coronavirus in the Seimas, the start of the work of the new Cabinet of Ministers will be further delayed, which, according to her, would not be a positive sign if it spreads the coronavirus pandemic.
“It is unstable in the Seimas, and if the formation of the new Government is still delayed, it is natural that when it comes to starting work, which is already very necessary, given the same pandemic situation, it is certainly not a very good sign. So it may take this government longer to falsify than originally planned, “he said.
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