Political scientist – on the actions of the Lukashenko regime: we have an aggressive hybrid war strategy

According to them, the hostile actions of the regimes of Alexander Lukashenko and the Kremlin manipulate the societies of their countries and are intended to spread disinformation.

It is planned to modernize the border section with Belarus

Rustama Liubajev, head of the State Border Guard Service (SBGS), admitted on the “Question of the Day” “Radio Question” program that there are a number of problems on the border with Belarus.

“Unfortunately, this is a problematic external border for the EU. At the end of last year we noticed negative trends, when the flows of illegal immigrants started to grow, and in the first quarter of this year we also see an increase in smuggling,” he said. The general.

According to him, there are a number of trouble spots on the border, including where surveillance systems are installed.

Most of these problems are in the Dieveniškis loop and in the section of the Tverečius border firewall.

“Smuggling takes place in almost all of Belarus, especially where there are no surveillance systems,” said the SBGS commander.

To date, according to him, 37 percent. Our external borders with Belarus are protected by modern systems – this system is planned to be expanded and installed everywhere – with fences, surveillance systems, special cables.

“It just came to our notice then. I would venture to say that it is probably the most modern on the EU’s external border at the moment. I know that our colleagues in the region also plan to implement similar systems in the near future, but we plan to complete the development of that system already this year or next, depending on the assignments, ”explained R. Liubajev.

The smuggling of illegal immigrants is organized by EU citizens

According to him, the target of illegal immigrants is not usually Lithuania; they often leave the Foreigners Registration Center and head to other EU countries.

“We have had a number of cases where our asylum seekers have been detained in Poland or other EU countries and returned to us under the Dublin Convention,” the border commander said.

Belarusian border officials have also acknowledged Liubayev’s unwillingness to cooperate, denying evidence of violations or refusing to conduct a joint investigation.

“It just came to our attention then. Our cooperation has changed dramatically since last fall, after the presidential elections and the political crisis. (…) We still had hopes of improving our communication by trying to organize an informal meeting, but after the latest events. politicians, we see that our hope is dead. Of course, hope dies in the end, but now it seems that it has happened, “said the general.

Organized groups transporting illegal immigrants, according to Liubayev, take huge sums of money from them.

“We are monitoring the situation, together with the Lithuanian police and police authorities of other EU countries, cooperating with Europol. We see that citizens of EU countries participate in such activities, who, for example, come to transport migrants. or asylum seekers across our internal border, ”continued R. Liubajev.

“This is a very well organized international group that deals with the transport of illegal immigrants throughout Europe,” emphasized the SBGS commander.

Almost 90 percent. Illegal immigrants, Liubayev also reported, remain detained at the state border.

“We can estimate the number of illegal immigrants returned to us by the Polish Border Guard or the relevant authorities in other EU countries under the Dublin Convention. We can estimate that,” he said.

Maliukevičius: a hybrid war strategy is applied against us

Nerijus Maliukevičius, a political scientist at the Institute of International Relations and Political Sciences (TSPMI) of Vilnius University, also spoke at the fair. According to him, Lithuania found itself in a kind of trap of Soviet control.

“We have an aggressive strategy of a kind of hybrid war against us,” said the expert.

According to him, the Lukashenko regime is simply blaming others, thus trying to remain in power in Belarus.

“It seems to me that we have to start from the starting point: a strategy is being implemented that tries to put the problem, the problem on our shoulders. The Lukashenko regime is desperate, fighting for its survival and creating problems outside its borders for everyone. possible means, “noted N. Maliukevičius.

The political scientist also stressed that Lukashenko is not alone in this situation.

“Here is the main burden of the information virus: the accusation thrown in the air, and then try to wash your uniform, explain and it will only contribute to the reproduction of the message and the like. (…) This is not just a campaign by the Lukashenko regime, it would see cooperation between the two regimes. I mean, and Putin, ‘”said N. Maliukevičius.

By spreading lies and disinformation about Lithuania and other Western countries, according to VU political scientist TSPMI, the regimes manipulate their societies.

“It is very important to avoid useless discussions about how we really were here during WWII. Of course, in the sense of historical facts, this is very important, but in the context of a public campaign, it must be said that it is a disinformation strategy directed at the symbols of our state, ”said the expert.

He recalled that Lithuania had tried to enter into a dialogue with Belarus a little earlier, but that such a strategy, according to him, did not work very well. N. Maliukevičius emphasized that it was necessary to support opponents of the regime.

“I’m not saying it was the wrong strategy, I was trying to delay Russia’s approach to our borders, but what we are seeing now is that that western direction is being crossed by Lukashenko and we are getting a simple fact: Russia’s approach to our eastern borders. Communication with Belarusian society is becoming especially important, “emphasized the political scientist.

He pointed out that there are many young people among the representatives of the Belarusian opposition who actively and creatively use the media, so the West and Lithuania, according to N. Maliukevičius, must help them and the media persecuted by the regime.

“It is possible to provide these opportunities to allow these media to operate in our country or in our region. The younger generation and modern media are very important,” added the political scientist.

Analyst: Sanctions policy can bring long-term benefits

Andrius Prochorenko, an analyst at the Eastern European Studies Center (RESC), also spoke about the necessary support for the Belarusian opposition, noting that the sanctions are detrimental to both the West and Belarus sides.

“The problem is that in the past there were no sanctions on the economy. The current sanctions are aimed at the economy,” Prochorenko said.

“Perhaps this policy can bring greater benefits in the long term, but in the short term we can see some financial and economic losses,” he continued.

According to the analyst, economic sanctions may force Belarus to slightly adjust to the new rules.

“Can we hope that Belarus can carry out an internal democratic revolution and a long-term revolution that provides some tools to break from the influence of Russia?”

Therefore, the secondary expert now needs to be heard and supported as never before by a united opposition to the regime.

“We can see that Western European leaders are paying more attention to Belarus than ever before,” the analyst added.