Political scientist: Lukashenko came to Putin with a demand

At the beginning of the meeting, Putin said that the instruments of interaction between Russia and Belarus are coordinated and working well.

“We do not have a day where our colleagues do not communicate with each other, do not resolve certain issues … But I am pleased to say that the level of interaction, strategic partnership, alliance is confirmed,” he said.

According to Putin, Russia is Belarus’ largest trade and economic partner, as well as the largest investor.

“We are implementing large projects in the energy sector, it is enough to remember only the Belarusian nuclear power plant, where work is going well,” said the Russian president.

At the time, Lukashenko said that Belarus should compensate for the decline in Russian gas consumption after the start-up of the nuclear power plant by developing the chemical industry.

Lukashenko also said that Belarus should have its own coronavirus vaccine in the fall.

“You already have three registered vaccines … We are also on this path. We will receive our vaccine in the fall,” he said.

Mr. Lukashenko also thanked Putin for his decision to open rail connections with Belarus.

“I think the time will come soon when we will also open car traffic. We have no problems. We are not closed,” he said.

After that, Putin and Lukashenko continued their communication in an informal setting. No joint statement was issued after this meeting.

In the run-up to the meeting, the media reported that Lukashenko and Putin could negotiate a new deal with Russia for $ 3 billion. Loans of USD (2.48 billion) to Minsk. Mr. Lukashenko himself denied the information.

What did Putin and Lukashenko really discuss on February 22? Can any of them consider this meeting a success?

Russian political scientist Dmitry Oreškin and his Belarusian colleague Valery Karbalevich asked about currenttime.tv (Nastoyashcheye vremia).

Oreškin: Putin will suffer outbursts of “batkas”

According to Oreškin, there is really no feeling of artificiality, when one president offers another to ski in front of television cameras, and the latter responds: “How well we dress every day.” Isn’t that why they got together? Obviously, there really was nothing to say, not because something was classified, but because there was no agreement. Mr. Lukashenko has come for the money, and that is understandable.

And Putin wants to show his constituents a fourth geopolitical victory. In this way, it seeks to raise its deteriorated rating. And this is also understandable. He claims three victories: in Chechnya, Sakartvele and Ukraine. Now he is seeking victory in Belarus: joining the territory of Belarus in one way or another, or at least in theory, presenting that option to his constituents. He fails, Lukashenko does not give up, demands money and speaks of brotherly feelings. Mr. Lukashenko has been using this idea quite successfully for 25 years.

Lukashenko lives largely off what Putin is doing to him. It is also obvious, according to D. Oreškin, that the anger of V. Putin can not with him – it would turn into a geopolitical catastrophe. As a result, Lukashenko is playing his game and is largely achieving his goals.

According to D. Oreškin, it is obvious how nervous V. Putin is. “Did you notice how her legs are shaking? He wants to get up and go out, even though they are talking about how great everything is, let’s go skiing right away … I think the body language shows that the two hardly hate each other.

It is true, in my opinion, in the case of Putin, that is clearer. From all this, I come to the conclusion that Mr. Lukashenko came and did not receive the money because Mr. Putin did not want to give it to him. However, Lukashenko feels safe and calm enough, and he suppressed the protests. And eventually you will get what you need from Russia. “Putin cannot afford to lose Lukashenko and Belarus, so he will suffer all batches of ‘batkas,” explains Oreshkin.

V. Karbalevičius: Lukashenko is a good actor

According to V. Karbalevičius, it can be said that Lukashenko did not come to ask for money. He came to demand them. This is often the case in relations between Russia and Belarus, when Russia once again postpones subsidies. Then, Lukashenko moves the issue into public space, ignites the scandal and bangs the table. And Russia tends to go down.

Now, according to the political scientist, the situation is somewhat different: Mr. Lukashenko is weaker than a year ago. You cannot blackmail Russia by intimidating it into fleeing to the West, you will not get loans anywhere except in Russia. Therefore, the question of money is certainly quite relevant for Belarus, especially considering that the situation regarding loans to the nuclear power plant [Gardino srityje] unclear, and Belarus would like to use this money for purposes other than power plant. And the economic situation is difficult, the budget deficit is huge (according to Nastojaščeje vremia, it was $ 800 million in 2020, about 659 million euros), it is necessary to constantly look for money to pay external debts.

Both parties show mutual admiration and friendship in every possible way. It is not just a mutual friendship, it is a friendship between two states, two regimes.

‘TO. Lukashenko knows how to impress when he wants to impress someone and achieve a concrete result. He’s a good actor, always capable of, say, playing the part that is needed in a particular situation. He seems to have mastered the role of a grateful guest who turned to a grateful host. Everything here is logical “, – V. Karbalevičius does not hesitate.