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Before the 2000s, G. Golosov called Russia an imperfect representative democracy for the Meduza website, and the authoritarian regime began to take shape in 2003-2004, in his opinion. Later, several stages of consolidation of said system awaited.
“The consolidation process is now largely over, because for a regime that exists as a personal dictatorship, it is vital to ensure the sustainability of power, not the ruling party, but the top leader.
“Now it has been accomplished, and I believe that the consolidation of authoritarianism in Russia is over: Putin has an institutional opportunity to remain in power for the rest of his life,” Golosov said.
Photo by Twitter / Grigory Golosov
The amendments to the Constitution were approved by almost 78% in a general vote. Russian voters, although both local and international observers say the referendum was not clean.
According to the analyst, in fact a plebiscite was not necessary: V. Putin regrets having started this process.
Photo from TASS / Referendum in Russia
“Yes, it was important to him that these constitutional amendments be adopted. In fact, they were approved by parliament, but Putin wanted a propaganda performance and a victory in a kind of election, not to appear to be acting simply through a legislature. obedient, ”said Golosov.
However, the faster the process accelerated, the clearer it became that “there is no clean way forward.”
According to G. Golosov, although the representative of the Kremlin, Dmitry Peskov, now says that the victory was significant, “basically everyone understands that all this is not a triumph, but a great shame.”
Reuters / Scanpix photo / Vladimir Putin
“I think the regime understood that the wheels had already started rolling because Putin had publicly promised that the vote would take place.
It was possible to withdraw through the Constitutional Court itself, but Putin again decided that it would seem strange that people think he was scared, “said the political scientist.
According to G. Golosov, how long the Putin regime will last depends on the level of resistance it will receive. It is said that if society does not protest, the regime will last as long as the president lives, not until 2036, but probably even longer.
“But if there is resistance, things can change quickly. The problem with such personalized authoritarian regimes is that the opposition can mobilize at any time and for any accidental purpose.
That is the characteristic of these modes. It is easy to predict what will happen when this regime weakens in a political sense. But it is very difficult to say how and when it will happen, because it can happen at any time, “says G. Golosov.
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